Before jumping into today, a quick look at Saturday's contests. Washington vs. Tennessee played out almost entirely as expected, with Derrick Henry posting what should be top-20 RB production this week, no receiver being startable, Josh Johnson not posting top-20-caliber QB numbers, and so on. For those keeping score, I predicted Adrian Peterson wouldn't be a top-30 RB. Based on last week's scoring, he did enough to finish 25th this week -- in other words, not worth starting in most leagues. My one big miss was believing Dion Lewis would get going; he didn't.
In the nightcap, FF4W reader Ryan Poertner put me in my place, correctly predicting Lamar Jackson would outperform Philip Rivers, while Gus Edwards would out-gain Melvin Gordon. That Baltimore D is for real; the immovable object won. So I missed big on Rivers, while Keenan Allen fell short of my reduced expectations. That said, my warnings about Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and every receiver on both sides of the ball not named Keenan were well founded. And to be fair, Jackson probably won't be a top-12 QB this week.
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Looking ahead to today's slate, I've once again been wrestling with the DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. As the injuries and questionable tags have piled up, I've tried to focus on high-volume guys in favorable matchups. So while cheap players like Alfred Blue are tempting, "hot-hand" risks make me wary (in Blue's case, if he struggles early, D'Onta Foreman could take over). Taking a 9-5-1 record into Week 16. Let's see how it looks on paper:
QB Nick Foles ($6,000) -- The cheapest starting QB option is also one of my favorite bargains of the week.
RB Christian McCaffrey ($9,300) -- He's been thriving in spite of Cam Newton struggling to move the ball. With Cam now sidelined, CMC should still thrive.
RB Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) -- The centerpiece of Dallas's offense remains one of the most reliable fantasy commodities around.
WR Amari Cooper ($7,000) -- The expert-consensus 7th ranked Week 16 fantasy wideout remains high on my rankings, too. Explosive upside vs. Tampa Bay, and a nice hedge with Zeke.
WR Robby Anderson ($5,900) -- Is he officially "back"? Last season's breakout receiver has been unstartable most of the year. Now healthy and facing sub-sub-par competition from other Jet receivers, Anderson appears poised to finish this year strong.
WR Sterling Shepard ($5,000) -- This one's tough. Trusting Eli on the road against Indy is bad enough. Trusting the underperforming Sterling Shepard is arguably worse. But I'd need to spend about $2,000 more to get a receiver I can really count on, and I have only $100 available. In other words, Shepard is a decent-enough option given my limitations.
TE Evan Engram ($5,700) -- It's fair to believe that Shepard or Engram will be at least decent today. That's what I'm betting on: elite or near-elite production at multiple spots while absorbing some misses. This is a relatively hefty price tag for a potential miss. But I like the Giants playing from behind for most of this game, giving Engram an advantage over just about every cheaper tight end.
FLEX Nick Chubb ($7,900) -- I love how his game against the injury-depleted Bengals is lining up. Expect plenty of clock management for the favored Browns, as Chubb goes off for 150+ total yards and a score.
DST Patriots ($4,300) -- I went through the past 15 seasons to see how New England's fared at home following a loss: 16-3. They've averaged 29 points in those games while giving up a little under 18. The last time they scored fewer than 20 points was in 2006. It's fair to assume the Pats will dominate the Bills on offense. The big question is whether they'll do the same on defense. I'm betting they will, exposing the rookie Josh Allen, who has as many turnovers as touchdowns (five) in his last three games.
Good luck today.
In the nightcap, FF4W reader Ryan Poertner put me in my place, correctly predicting Lamar Jackson would outperform Philip Rivers, while Gus Edwards would out-gain Melvin Gordon. That Baltimore D is for real; the immovable object won. So I missed big on Rivers, while Keenan Allen fell short of my reduced expectations. That said, my warnings about Gus Edwards, Kenneth Dixon, and every receiver on both sides of the ball not named Keenan were well founded. And to be fair, Jackson probably won't be a top-12 QB this week.
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Looking ahead to today's slate, I've once again been wrestling with the DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. As the injuries and questionable tags have piled up, I've tried to focus on high-volume guys in favorable matchups. So while cheap players like Alfred Blue are tempting, "hot-hand" risks make me wary (in Blue's case, if he struggles early, D'Onta Foreman could take over). Taking a 9-5-1 record into Week 16. Let's see how it looks on paper:
QB Nick Foles ($6,000) -- The cheapest starting QB option is also one of my favorite bargains of the week.
RB Christian McCaffrey ($9,300) -- He's been thriving in spite of Cam Newton struggling to move the ball. With Cam now sidelined, CMC should still thrive.
RB Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) -- The centerpiece of Dallas's offense remains one of the most reliable fantasy commodities around.
WR Amari Cooper ($7,000) -- The expert-consensus 7th ranked Week 16 fantasy wideout remains high on my rankings, too. Explosive upside vs. Tampa Bay, and a nice hedge with Zeke.
WR Robby Anderson ($5,900) -- Is he officially "back"? Last season's breakout receiver has been unstartable most of the year. Now healthy and facing sub-sub-par competition from other Jet receivers, Anderson appears poised to finish this year strong.
WR Sterling Shepard ($5,000) -- This one's tough. Trusting Eli on the road against Indy is bad enough. Trusting the underperforming Sterling Shepard is arguably worse. But I'd need to spend about $2,000 more to get a receiver I can really count on, and I have only $100 available. In other words, Shepard is a decent-enough option given my limitations.
TE Evan Engram ($5,700) -- It's fair to believe that Shepard or Engram will be at least decent today. That's what I'm betting on: elite or near-elite production at multiple spots while absorbing some misses. This is a relatively hefty price tag for a potential miss. But I like the Giants playing from behind for most of this game, giving Engram an advantage over just about every cheaper tight end.
FLEX Nick Chubb ($7,900) -- I love how his game against the injury-depleted Bengals is lining up. Expect plenty of clock management for the favored Browns, as Chubb goes off for 150+ total yards and a score.
DST Patriots ($4,300) -- I went through the past 15 seasons to see how New England's fared at home following a loss: 16-3. They've averaged 29 points in those games while giving up a little under 18. The last time they scored fewer than 20 points was in 2006. It's fair to assume the Pats will dominate the Bills on offense. The big question is whether they'll do the same on defense. I'm betting they will, exposing the rookie Josh Allen, who has as many turnovers as touchdowns (five) in his last three games.
Good luck today.