Two games on the docket today. Tennessee remains in the playoff picture, but they'll probably need to win out to have a shot. Fortunately they get a Redskins team whose Week 15 victory over the painfully bad Jaguars says nothing, except that they can beat a bad team like the Jags. Josh Johnson won't be a top-20 QB this weekend, and Adrian Peterson won't be a top-30 RB. Consider AP's previous seven performances: 2.7 YPC, 1.6 YPC, 10.9 YPC (thanks to a 90-yard run that was almost a straight shot), 2.9 YPC, 3.2 YPC, 3.6 YPC, and 1.9 YPC. Tennessee is tied for the third stingiest run defense with respect to TDs, giving up only eight rushing scores all year. Simply put, you don't want to start AP today. The same goes for Jamison Crowder and the four or five non-starters Johnson will be throwing to.
For the Titans, can Derrick Henry do it again? An RB5/6 for the first half of the season, Henry is now the 18th highest scoring fantasy back, coincidentally right behind AP. Washington is yielding 4.6 yards per carry to opposing runners. Henry's accounted for Tennessee's last six touchdowns and seven of their last eight. The volume is there after inexplicably playing behind Dion Lewis for much of the year. So of course start Henry as an RB1/2, and while we're at it, give Lewis a look as an RB3, as Washington is much better against the pass. I don't see Marcus Mariota airing it out too much, particularly given his limited aerial weapons. Henry and Lewis could realistically catch half the balls Mariota completes. It means Corey Davis is once again a risky boom-bust option, and every other receiver is off the table.
In the nightcap, the Chargers are fourth in the NFL in points per game, while Baltimore's defense is #1 in points given up. When the unstoppable force meets the immovable object, who wins? If scientists can't answer it, neither can we. But we can suppose that the Chargers will prevail, and we can assume that a healthy Melvin Gordon and potentially healthy Keenan Allen will be must-start options. Gordon is looking at 25+ touches, while Justin Jackson probably won't exceed five. And Allen's return would return Mike Williams to his customary boom-bust role, with a 2/25 line just as likely as a 7/70/1 line. I'd sit him if you have a fairly reliable WR2/3. And Rivers should finish around the top 10-14 QBs this week -- good enough to help some needy teams, but not enough of a difference-maker thanks to the challenging matchup.
For Baltimore, I'm down on Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards this week, and for that matter Kenneth Dixon and really any Raven receiver. The Chargers are solid on defense, and Jackson poses almost no threat through the air. In his five starts he has only 731 passing yards and a 6/6 TD/turnover ratio. Fantasy-wise, impressive for a rookie, thanks to game-breaking running skills. But his upside is capped in this one, and I don't see him as a top-14 QB.
---
Quickly running through bargains and busts. Nick Foles (expert-consensus 18th ranked Week 16 QB) is poorly valued because his running backs took over last week. That won't be the case Sunday assuming Alshon Jeffery is a go. Expect a top-14 performance for the veteran. The same goes for Derek Carr (22nd), who I hyped up earlier this week -- and for that matter, back over the summer. Carr will surprise. On the flip side, I'm betting against Ben Roethlisberger (3rd) in New Orleans and, of course, against Lamar Jackson (11th).
At RB, Zach Zenner (39th) led Detroit running backs in snaps last week. I like him as a dart-throw RB3 with TD potential. And I like Tevin Coleman (22nd) as a heavy-usage bellcow (30 touches, anyone?) against the mostly hapless Panthers. On the flip side, Todd Gurley (4th) has been ranked high all week despite the questionable tag. It hasn't made sense. Assuming he's a full go Sunday, I think he'll be lucky to crack the top 15. The Rams need him healthy for the playoffs more than they need the #1 seed (which realistically they won't get anyway).
At WR, Tim Patrick (69th) remains undervalued, as does the continually underappreciated Kenny Stills (48th). And it shouldn't surprise anyone that Jordy Nelson (37th) will once again outperform expectations. On the flip side, why is Josh Reynolds ranked 28th? There are probably 20+ lower-ranked wideouts I'd start over him.
At TE, Levine Toilolo (36th) has 10 catches in his last three games, and it's not like Detroit's retooled since then. Toilolo is my favorite desperation TE start of the week. And of course I'd give Ian Thomas (20th) a serious look despite the QB downgrade. On the flip side, Cameron Brate (9th) remains a weak TD-dependent option, as does Vance McDonald (13th).
For the Titans, can Derrick Henry do it again? An RB5/6 for the first half of the season, Henry is now the 18th highest scoring fantasy back, coincidentally right behind AP. Washington is yielding 4.6 yards per carry to opposing runners. Henry's accounted for Tennessee's last six touchdowns and seven of their last eight. The volume is there after inexplicably playing behind Dion Lewis for much of the year. So of course start Henry as an RB1/2, and while we're at it, give Lewis a look as an RB3, as Washington is much better against the pass. I don't see Marcus Mariota airing it out too much, particularly given his limited aerial weapons. Henry and Lewis could realistically catch half the balls Mariota completes. It means Corey Davis is once again a risky boom-bust option, and every other receiver is off the table.
In the nightcap, the Chargers are fourth in the NFL in points per game, while Baltimore's defense is #1 in points given up. When the unstoppable force meets the immovable object, who wins? If scientists can't answer it, neither can we. But we can suppose that the Chargers will prevail, and we can assume that a healthy Melvin Gordon and potentially healthy Keenan Allen will be must-start options. Gordon is looking at 25+ touches, while Justin Jackson probably won't exceed five. And Allen's return would return Mike Williams to his customary boom-bust role, with a 2/25 line just as likely as a 7/70/1 line. I'd sit him if you have a fairly reliable WR2/3. And Rivers should finish around the top 10-14 QBs this week -- good enough to help some needy teams, but not enough of a difference-maker thanks to the challenging matchup.
For Baltimore, I'm down on Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards this week, and for that matter Kenneth Dixon and really any Raven receiver. The Chargers are solid on defense, and Jackson poses almost no threat through the air. In his five starts he has only 731 passing yards and a 6/6 TD/turnover ratio. Fantasy-wise, impressive for a rookie, thanks to game-breaking running skills. But his upside is capped in this one, and I don't see him as a top-14 QB.
---
Quickly running through bargains and busts. Nick Foles (expert-consensus 18th ranked Week 16 QB) is poorly valued because his running backs took over last week. That won't be the case Sunday assuming Alshon Jeffery is a go. Expect a top-14 performance for the veteran. The same goes for Derek Carr (22nd), who I hyped up earlier this week -- and for that matter, back over the summer. Carr will surprise. On the flip side, I'm betting against Ben Roethlisberger (3rd) in New Orleans and, of course, against Lamar Jackson (11th).
At RB, Zach Zenner (39th) led Detroit running backs in snaps last week. I like him as a dart-throw RB3 with TD potential. And I like Tevin Coleman (22nd) as a heavy-usage bellcow (30 touches, anyone?) against the mostly hapless Panthers. On the flip side, Todd Gurley (4th) has been ranked high all week despite the questionable tag. It hasn't made sense. Assuming he's a full go Sunday, I think he'll be lucky to crack the top 15. The Rams need him healthy for the playoffs more than they need the #1 seed (which realistically they won't get anyway).
At WR, Tim Patrick (69th) remains undervalued, as does the continually underappreciated Kenny Stills (48th). And it shouldn't surprise anyone that Jordy Nelson (37th) will once again outperform expectations. On the flip side, why is Josh Reynolds ranked 28th? There are probably 20+ lower-ranked wideouts I'd start over him.
At TE, Levine Toilolo (36th) has 10 catches in his last three games, and it's not like Detroit's retooled since then. Toilolo is my favorite desperation TE start of the week. And of course I'd give Ian Thomas (20th) a serious look despite the QB downgrade. On the flip side, Cameron Brate (9th) remains a weak TD-dependent option, as does Vance McDonald (13th).