Thursday Night Football is over, meaning no short week for beaten-down players needing an extra 2-3 days to recover.
And who are these beaten-down players? And what are the implications if/when they don't suit up this week? Essentially, who can we plug in to make (some of) the pain go away?
Let's start with my roster, which will play for the title against long-time FF4W reader Doug Harrison in Division X of the Premier Fantasy Football League's inaugural season. Since locking down a first-round bye in Week 13, I've now lost my starting QB (Carson Wentz) and one of my starting RBs (Aaron Jones). My two other starting RBs (Todd Gurley and James Conner) are at least 50/50 bets to sit this weekend. And one of my starting WRs (T.Y. Hilton) is questionable.
In other words, I'll need to replace about half my roster with fantasy backups. It's an insane predicament that some of you are also facing. This is where luck and skill intersect; I need both, but not sure luck will cooperate.
At QB, Baker Mayfield (51% Available in ESPN Leagues) has a fantastic home matchup against Cincinnati. The Browns are still technically in the playoff hunt. Regardless, Mayfield is a fairly accessible, high-upside option if you don't have a QB1 on hand. Nick Foles (88%) is in the same boat. Ignore his muted fantasy performance this past weekend; he'll face a reeling Houston pass defense and is a good bet for top-14 production, with comparable Mayfield-like upside.
Looking deeper, Derek Carr (87%) might look unstartable to the naked eye. But while he's averaging only 14.9 fantasy points per contest, he's netting a healthier 17.3 at home. And he's facing a beatable Denver pass D. Lost in the chaos of Oakland's atrocious season is the reality that Carr's averaging career highs in completion percentage and yards per throw. Imagine if he had a good offensive line and capable receivers. Yet even without that, he's my favorite Hail Mary quarterback of the week.
At RB, Kalen Ballage (85%) will or won't build off his Week 14 breakout. If you need to roll the dice on someone, roll them on him. Competing with Kenyan Drake and a slice of Brandon Bolden, the rookie faces a Jags team yielding 4.4 YPC and a near-league-worst 14 rushing touchdowns. Expect 12+ touches for this RB3/4 with TD upside. And John Kelly (92%) is certainly worth a pick-up as we await final news on Gurley. Ironically, Kelly was one of the 10 handcuff RBs I targeted in my very deep league (where I lost in the playoffs). My other handcuffs included guys like Spencer Ware, Justin Jackson, T.J. Yeldon, and James Conner. Kelly might be a difference-maker when it matters most, though he's admittedly risky even if he starts, as it's unclear whether this will be a hot-hand situation.
At WR, I keep pushing Jordy Nelson (67%), and he keeps producing now that he's healthy. I'm seriously considering stacking Carr and Jordy given Doug's dominant roster. In other words, I need boom-bust, because so-so won't cut it. The Week 16 Carr/Jordy combo is the quintessential boom-bust play. In deeper leagues, Tim Patrick (95%) is there for the taking and is coming off back-to-back respectable performances. You could do worse with a TD-dependent WR4. And of course, one of my favorite Week 14 bargains (Mike Williams -- 54%) will once again be startable if Keenan Allen sits, despite facing a brutal Baltimore defense. if Jameis Winston could get production out of Mike Evans this past weekend, Philip Rivers can do it with Williams.
At TE, if Geoff Swaim doesn't return, Blake Jarwin (99%) will be a worthwhile dart throw against Tampa Bay, while C.J. Uzomah (72%) is definitely worth the risk if Tyler Boyd sits.
And who are these beaten-down players? And what are the implications if/when they don't suit up this week? Essentially, who can we plug in to make (some of) the pain go away?
Let's start with my roster, which will play for the title against long-time FF4W reader Doug Harrison in Division X of the Premier Fantasy Football League's inaugural season. Since locking down a first-round bye in Week 13, I've now lost my starting QB (Carson Wentz) and one of my starting RBs (Aaron Jones). My two other starting RBs (Todd Gurley and James Conner) are at least 50/50 bets to sit this weekend. And one of my starting WRs (T.Y. Hilton) is questionable.
In other words, I'll need to replace about half my roster with fantasy backups. It's an insane predicament that some of you are also facing. This is where luck and skill intersect; I need both, but not sure luck will cooperate.
At QB, Baker Mayfield (51% Available in ESPN Leagues) has a fantastic home matchup against Cincinnati. The Browns are still technically in the playoff hunt. Regardless, Mayfield is a fairly accessible, high-upside option if you don't have a QB1 on hand. Nick Foles (88%) is in the same boat. Ignore his muted fantasy performance this past weekend; he'll face a reeling Houston pass defense and is a good bet for top-14 production, with comparable Mayfield-like upside.
Looking deeper, Derek Carr (87%) might look unstartable to the naked eye. But while he's averaging only 14.9 fantasy points per contest, he's netting a healthier 17.3 at home. And he's facing a beatable Denver pass D. Lost in the chaos of Oakland's atrocious season is the reality that Carr's averaging career highs in completion percentage and yards per throw. Imagine if he had a good offensive line and capable receivers. Yet even without that, he's my favorite Hail Mary quarterback of the week.
At RB, Kalen Ballage (85%) will or won't build off his Week 14 breakout. If you need to roll the dice on someone, roll them on him. Competing with Kenyan Drake and a slice of Brandon Bolden, the rookie faces a Jags team yielding 4.4 YPC and a near-league-worst 14 rushing touchdowns. Expect 12+ touches for this RB3/4 with TD upside. And John Kelly (92%) is certainly worth a pick-up as we await final news on Gurley. Ironically, Kelly was one of the 10 handcuff RBs I targeted in my very deep league (where I lost in the playoffs). My other handcuffs included guys like Spencer Ware, Justin Jackson, T.J. Yeldon, and James Conner. Kelly might be a difference-maker when it matters most, though he's admittedly risky even if he starts, as it's unclear whether this will be a hot-hand situation.
At WR, I keep pushing Jordy Nelson (67%), and he keeps producing now that he's healthy. I'm seriously considering stacking Carr and Jordy given Doug's dominant roster. In other words, I need boom-bust, because so-so won't cut it. The Week 16 Carr/Jordy combo is the quintessential boom-bust play. In deeper leagues, Tim Patrick (95%) is there for the taking and is coming off back-to-back respectable performances. You could do worse with a TD-dependent WR4. And of course, one of my favorite Week 14 bargains (Mike Williams -- 54%) will once again be startable if Keenan Allen sits, despite facing a brutal Baltimore defense. if Jameis Winston could get production out of Mike Evans this past weekend, Philip Rivers can do it with Williams.
At TE, if Geoff Swaim doesn't return, Blake Jarwin (99%) will be a worthwhile dart throw against Tampa Bay, while C.J. Uzomah (72%) is definitely worth the risk if Tyler Boyd sits.