Are we really in Week 15? This season has moved really quickly. Or maybe that's just what it feels like to be old.
Last Thursday's shocker in Dallas was as entertaining as a low-scoring game can get. Tonight's contest should be as entertaining as a high-scoring game can get -- not including Week 11's Monday Night extravaganza between the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers host the Chiefs in a matchup that could decide the top two seeds in the AFC. A Kansas City win will all but lock up their #1 position, while L.A. would almost certainly settle for a 5 seed and a very tough opening round road game. If the Chargers win, they'll move into a tie atop the AFC West, but will still be behind in the tiebreaker, trailing a half game in conference record. And if they both win out from there, Kansas City would claim the #1 seed by virtue of winning more common games. A Chiefs loss would have to be followed by a loss in Seattle next week to give the Chargers any serious hope at the top spot.
A lot's happened to these two franchises since they met in Week 1 -- a game Kansas City won fairly convincingly despite the seemingly narrow 10-point spread. That was the game where Patrick Mahomes' legendary season was born. Despite owning a QB-16 ADP, and despite most experts ranking him as a QB2 or even QB3 (yes, admittedly he was a mid-range QB2 on my draft board), the MVP frontrunner went off for the first of his seven (yes, seven) 4+ TD performances. His 127.5 QB rating is yet another reason why QB ratings are ridiculously over-reported (yes, admittedly I over-report them, too). Mahomes' turnover-free outing was about as good as it gets for a guy making his second career NFL start.
Meanwhile, the veteran Philip Rivers was in catchup mode most of the night, leading to three touchdown passes and by far his highest fantasy scoring output of the season (29 points).
So what's changed? Well, Melvin Gordon is questionable and Austin Ekeler is out, meaning the rookie Justin Jackson could play a meaningful role in this one. On the flip side, Kareem Hunt is suspended indefinitely and Spencer Ware is doubtful, meaning Dolphins cast-off Damien Williams will get the first crack at fantasy relevance in Kansas City's backfield, followed by Darrel Williams and Charcandrick West. If Gordon starts, Jackson is barely startable. And I'd be wary of trusting any K.C. RB as more than a TD-dependent option.
More changes: Sammy Watkins remains sidelined for Kansas City, while kicker Mike Badgley has brought some consistency to the kicking game after Caleb Sturgis's shaky early-season tenure. And finally, the Chargers and Chiefs DSTs entered the season with DST-4 and DST-18 ADPs, respectively. Their actual rankings through 14 weeks is 11th and 21st. The high expectations surrounding the Chargers' defensive unit -- despite preseason losses to their secondary -- have not been met. Their highest weekly output has been 12 fantasy points; that's worse than the best weekly performance of every other top 25 DST, except the Titans.
There's little doubt tonight will be high scoring. There's little doubt Mahomes and Rivers will be QB1s. And barring injury / re-injury, dominance is likely for #1 receivers Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill (and of course Travis Kelce). The question marks reside elsewhere. I love Mike Williams (43rd in WR fantasy points) as a WR3+ streamer. Justin Jackson is a must-start if Gordon sits, but of course that might not become known until soon before kickoff (plan your dinner schedule accordingly). And three of Antonio Gates' four best fantasy outputs have come on the Chargers' three losses; the expert-consensus 26th ranked TE this week, Gates is one of my favorite streaming tight ends with L.A. likely to be playing from behind.
For Kansas City, as suggested above, Damien Williams is not the obvious start he appears to be. I warned against him last year when he was inexplicably running ahead of Kenyan Drake after Miami traded away Jay Ajayi midseason. His performance against the bottom-barrel Oakland D was not indicative of his true middling talent. And his two TDs last week didn't tell the whole story (he ran much, much worse than Spencer Ware did, for good reason). Williams' expert-consensus #24 RB ranking is overly optimistic. If he scores for you, great. But I put those odds at less than 50-50. Predicting no more than 45 yards on the ground and no more than 20 through the air.
Last Thursday's shocker in Dallas was as entertaining as a low-scoring game can get. Tonight's contest should be as entertaining as a high-scoring game can get -- not including Week 11's Monday Night extravaganza between the Rams and Chiefs. The Chargers host the Chiefs in a matchup that could decide the top two seeds in the AFC. A Kansas City win will all but lock up their #1 position, while L.A. would almost certainly settle for a 5 seed and a very tough opening round road game. If the Chargers win, they'll move into a tie atop the AFC West, but will still be behind in the tiebreaker, trailing a half game in conference record. And if they both win out from there, Kansas City would claim the #1 seed by virtue of winning more common games. A Chiefs loss would have to be followed by a loss in Seattle next week to give the Chargers any serious hope at the top spot.
A lot's happened to these two franchises since they met in Week 1 -- a game Kansas City won fairly convincingly despite the seemingly narrow 10-point spread. That was the game where Patrick Mahomes' legendary season was born. Despite owning a QB-16 ADP, and despite most experts ranking him as a QB2 or even QB3 (yes, admittedly he was a mid-range QB2 on my draft board), the MVP frontrunner went off for the first of his seven (yes, seven) 4+ TD performances. His 127.5 QB rating is yet another reason why QB ratings are ridiculously over-reported (yes, admittedly I over-report them, too). Mahomes' turnover-free outing was about as good as it gets for a guy making his second career NFL start.
Meanwhile, the veteran Philip Rivers was in catchup mode most of the night, leading to three touchdown passes and by far his highest fantasy scoring output of the season (29 points).
So what's changed? Well, Melvin Gordon is questionable and Austin Ekeler is out, meaning the rookie Justin Jackson could play a meaningful role in this one. On the flip side, Kareem Hunt is suspended indefinitely and Spencer Ware is doubtful, meaning Dolphins cast-off Damien Williams will get the first crack at fantasy relevance in Kansas City's backfield, followed by Darrel Williams and Charcandrick West. If Gordon starts, Jackson is barely startable. And I'd be wary of trusting any K.C. RB as more than a TD-dependent option.
More changes: Sammy Watkins remains sidelined for Kansas City, while kicker Mike Badgley has brought some consistency to the kicking game after Caleb Sturgis's shaky early-season tenure. And finally, the Chargers and Chiefs DSTs entered the season with DST-4 and DST-18 ADPs, respectively. Their actual rankings through 14 weeks is 11th and 21st. The high expectations surrounding the Chargers' defensive unit -- despite preseason losses to their secondary -- have not been met. Their highest weekly output has been 12 fantasy points; that's worse than the best weekly performance of every other top 25 DST, except the Titans.
There's little doubt tonight will be high scoring. There's little doubt Mahomes and Rivers will be QB1s. And barring injury / re-injury, dominance is likely for #1 receivers Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill (and of course Travis Kelce). The question marks reside elsewhere. I love Mike Williams (43rd in WR fantasy points) as a WR3+ streamer. Justin Jackson is a must-start if Gordon sits, but of course that might not become known until soon before kickoff (plan your dinner schedule accordingly). And three of Antonio Gates' four best fantasy outputs have come on the Chargers' three losses; the expert-consensus 26th ranked TE this week, Gates is one of my favorite streaming tight ends with L.A. likely to be playing from behind.
For Kansas City, as suggested above, Damien Williams is not the obvious start he appears to be. I warned against him last year when he was inexplicably running ahead of Kenyan Drake after Miami traded away Jay Ajayi midseason. His performance against the bottom-barrel Oakland D was not indicative of his true middling talent. And his two TDs last week didn't tell the whole story (he ran much, much worse than Spencer Ware did, for good reason). Williams' expert-consensus #24 RB ranking is overly optimistic. If he scores for you, great. But I put those odds at less than 50-50. Predicting no more than 45 yards on the ground and no more than 20 through the air.