Fantasy seasons are filled with unlikely heroes. Derrick Henry might prove to be this season's most unlikely hero.
The third-year pro hadn't exceeded 58 rushing yards in 16 games. He was 37th in RB fantasy points. He was averaging barely 12 touches per game and a pedestrian 3.7 YPC. After last night, he'll likely end Week 14 as the year's #25 fantasy RB with a blistering 4.9 YPC. And if you who started this week's expert-consensus 43th ranked RB, you'll probably still be competing next week. In fact, his 47.8 PPR points marks fantasy's biggest one-game output since Jamaal Charles in 2013.
Charles' humongous Week 15 performance that year was similar, but even better: 59.5 points on 200+ yard and four TDs, which single-handedly propelled fantasy managers into the finals. It also arguably made him that season's #1 overall fantasy RB, when he beat out Matt Forte by 40 points.
In Henry's case, a strong finish to the season will push him comfortably inside the top 20. He'll forever be regarded as an RB2 for 2018. Except we know that's not the case. Not really, anyway. And that's why timing is everything in fantasy. Henry has posted under six fantasy points in eight of 13 games. Think about that: he's essentially been an RB5 or worse for 62% of this season. Except when we look back years from now, we'll see someone who roughly met his preseason RB-18 ADP expectations. Fantasy is a strange business.
On the flip side, Leonard Fournette performed as expected. The preseason expert-consensus 7th ranked RB was comparably ranked on my draft board. He was expected to remain a high-volume bellcow and offensive centerpiece. Instead, injuries and a suspension -- along with a YPC dip -- have held him back. A couple weeks ago I pointed out that 11 of his career 13 rushing TDs had come inside the 5-yard line, and that seven of his 15 TDs (rushing/receiving) had come inside the 1. Last night's outcome -- and possibly some of your championship hopes -- turned on seven successive plays starting with around 11 minutes left in the second quarter, with Jacksonville down five and nestled on Tennessee's 7-yard line. During that stretch, Fournette ran four times for four yards, getting stuffed twice at the 1. Immediately after, Henry ran it in from 99 out. Game over.
This is where things stand right now with Fournette, a highly talented back with a history of injury troubles. In 19 NFL games he's averaged 3.7 yards per carry. And he's only middling in the pass-catching realm. Thus far his usefulness has been driven largely by goal-line scores, which outside of LeGarrette Blount's incredible 2016 season (when 11 of his 18 TDs came from the 1), is not a predictable indicator of success. Meanwhile, as I've been saying all year, T.J. Yeldon has run better and looked more effective in the passing game. If Fournette had sat all season, Yeldon -- who entered Week 14 as the 14th highest scoring fantasy RB despite starting only five games -- would currently be a top-6 RB. The same could not be said for Fournette if he'd started every game.
The third-year pro hadn't exceeded 58 rushing yards in 16 games. He was 37th in RB fantasy points. He was averaging barely 12 touches per game and a pedestrian 3.7 YPC. After last night, he'll likely end Week 14 as the year's #25 fantasy RB with a blistering 4.9 YPC. And if you who started this week's expert-consensus 43th ranked RB, you'll probably still be competing next week. In fact, his 47.8 PPR points marks fantasy's biggest one-game output since Jamaal Charles in 2013.
Charles' humongous Week 15 performance that year was similar, but even better: 59.5 points on 200+ yard and four TDs, which single-handedly propelled fantasy managers into the finals. It also arguably made him that season's #1 overall fantasy RB, when he beat out Matt Forte by 40 points.
In Henry's case, a strong finish to the season will push him comfortably inside the top 20. He'll forever be regarded as an RB2 for 2018. Except we know that's not the case. Not really, anyway. And that's why timing is everything in fantasy. Henry has posted under six fantasy points in eight of 13 games. Think about that: he's essentially been an RB5 or worse for 62% of this season. Except when we look back years from now, we'll see someone who roughly met his preseason RB-18 ADP expectations. Fantasy is a strange business.
On the flip side, Leonard Fournette performed as expected. The preseason expert-consensus 7th ranked RB was comparably ranked on my draft board. He was expected to remain a high-volume bellcow and offensive centerpiece. Instead, injuries and a suspension -- along with a YPC dip -- have held him back. A couple weeks ago I pointed out that 11 of his career 13 rushing TDs had come inside the 5-yard line, and that seven of his 15 TDs (rushing/receiving) had come inside the 1. Last night's outcome -- and possibly some of your championship hopes -- turned on seven successive plays starting with around 11 minutes left in the second quarter, with Jacksonville down five and nestled on Tennessee's 7-yard line. During that stretch, Fournette ran four times for four yards, getting stuffed twice at the 1. Immediately after, Henry ran it in from 99 out. Game over.
This is where things stand right now with Fournette, a highly talented back with a history of injury troubles. In 19 NFL games he's averaged 3.7 yards per carry. And he's only middling in the pass-catching realm. Thus far his usefulness has been driven largely by goal-line scores, which outside of LeGarrette Blount's incredible 2016 season (when 11 of his 18 TDs came from the 1), is not a predictable indicator of success. Meanwhile, as I've been saying all year, T.J. Yeldon has run better and looked more effective in the passing game. If Fournette had sat all season, Yeldon -- who entered Week 14 as the 14th highest scoring fantasy RB despite starting only five games -- would currently be a top-6 RB. The same could not be said for Fournette if he'd started every game.