Jerry Jones recently hinted that his Cowboys won't rest their starters in Sunday's regular season finale, announcing that "absolutely" they're playing to win that game. Saints head coach Sean Payton said yesterday that he's "going to approach [Week 17] just like we would a regular season game." He also vented that it was the fourth time someone had asked him that question in the previous 24 hours.
If fantasy didn't exist, who would care besides the actual players . . . and maybe ticket holders?
But we're living in a fantasy world, and this final slate of games is always the toughest to figure out.
Rarely does a team that's clinched its playoff seed -- with no room to go up or down -- play their starters for 60 minutes. A head coach would be deservedly villified if it led to a starter getting knocked out for the year. It's like a preseason game, except unlike in August, NFL starters in December are often battling injuries and fatigue (physical and mental) to degrees that necessitate a break. If players welcome bye weeks during the season, why wouldn't they welcome them in Week 17?
One major exception was in December 2007, when the undefeated Patriots -- whether because of arrogance or a desire for immortality (probably both) -- threw the kitchen sink at the wild-card-bound Giants and came from behind to win by three. But it was the best loss the Giants could have had, as it gave them 60 minutes of game tape on how to beat New England five weeks later.
So whatever owners or coaches or reporters or bloggers say or write these next few days, it all comes down to this basic premise: If a playoff-bound team has absolutely nothing to play for Sunday, chances are slim-to-none that their key starters will play all 60 minutes. And it would be surprising if they competed for more than 30.
For example, the Saints have wrapped up the NFC's #1 seed. Why would Payton put the 39-year-old Drew Brees in harm's way for a meaningless game? The same goes for Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and guys like Max Unger, Terron Armstead, Cameron Jordan, and Marshon Lattimore.
But many teams still have plenty to play for. The Chiefs merely need to bear the Raiders to claim the AFC's #1 spot. Yet fantasy-wise, I still view Patrick Mahomes & company as must-starts, because Kansas City's defense easily could yield 20+ points to Oakland. But if K.C. is up three scores at the end of the third quarter, you better hope your guys have put up enough fantasy points, because the reserves are probably going in. The Patriots are in a similar boat with a very winnable home game against the Jets to lock up the 2 seed; if they go up big early, you could see Brian Hoyer take over and James Develin pick up more of the backfield slack. And finally, assuming Kansas City wins a contest they should win comfortably, the Chargers will have nothing to play for. If the Chiefs are up big at halftime, we might see the Chargers sit some or all of their key guys starting in their second half.
Some of the safest starts this week will be guys on teams with nothing to play for. Tennessee will probably be eliminated by the time they kick off at 8:20pm Eastern. But surely they won't sit their starters against a Colts team with something to play for. And the collapsing Steelers could be nearing elimination by halftime if Baltimore handles Cleveland. But the chance to crush their hated rivals, the Bengals, should be enough to keep Ben, Brown, JuJu, and others on the field.
All this said, if a coach says, "So-and-so is sitting," obviously take them at their word. But the next few days we'll hear a lot from a lot of people, and some of it might be conflicting. Let's take it day by day, and for those competing this weekend, hopefully we'll all know enough by Sunday morning to start a championship-caliber lineup.
If fantasy didn't exist, who would care besides the actual players . . . and maybe ticket holders?
But we're living in a fantasy world, and this final slate of games is always the toughest to figure out.
Rarely does a team that's clinched its playoff seed -- with no room to go up or down -- play their starters for 60 minutes. A head coach would be deservedly villified if it led to a starter getting knocked out for the year. It's like a preseason game, except unlike in August, NFL starters in December are often battling injuries and fatigue (physical and mental) to degrees that necessitate a break. If players welcome bye weeks during the season, why wouldn't they welcome them in Week 17?
One major exception was in December 2007, when the undefeated Patriots -- whether because of arrogance or a desire for immortality (probably both) -- threw the kitchen sink at the wild-card-bound Giants and came from behind to win by three. But it was the best loss the Giants could have had, as it gave them 60 minutes of game tape on how to beat New England five weeks later.
So whatever owners or coaches or reporters or bloggers say or write these next few days, it all comes down to this basic premise: If a playoff-bound team has absolutely nothing to play for Sunday, chances are slim-to-none that their key starters will play all 60 minutes. And it would be surprising if they competed for more than 30.
For example, the Saints have wrapped up the NFC's #1 seed. Why would Payton put the 39-year-old Drew Brees in harm's way for a meaningless game? The same goes for Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and guys like Max Unger, Terron Armstead, Cameron Jordan, and Marshon Lattimore.
But many teams still have plenty to play for. The Chiefs merely need to bear the Raiders to claim the AFC's #1 spot. Yet fantasy-wise, I still view Patrick Mahomes & company as must-starts, because Kansas City's defense easily could yield 20+ points to Oakland. But if K.C. is up three scores at the end of the third quarter, you better hope your guys have put up enough fantasy points, because the reserves are probably going in. The Patriots are in a similar boat with a very winnable home game against the Jets to lock up the 2 seed; if they go up big early, you could see Brian Hoyer take over and James Develin pick up more of the backfield slack. And finally, assuming Kansas City wins a contest they should win comfortably, the Chargers will have nothing to play for. If the Chiefs are up big at halftime, we might see the Chargers sit some or all of their key guys starting in their second half.
Some of the safest starts this week will be guys on teams with nothing to play for. Tennessee will probably be eliminated by the time they kick off at 8:20pm Eastern. But surely they won't sit their starters against a Colts team with something to play for. And the collapsing Steelers could be nearing elimination by halftime if Baltimore handles Cleveland. But the chance to crush their hated rivals, the Bengals, should be enough to keep Ben, Brown, JuJu, and others on the field.
All this said, if a coach says, "So-and-so is sitting," obviously take them at their word. But the next few days we'll hear a lot from a lot of people, and some of it might be conflicting. Let's take it day by day, and for those competing this weekend, hopefully we'll all know enough by Sunday morning to start a championship-caliber lineup.