Hoping all of you won this week, though realistically that's impossible, since I know some of you compete in the same leagues. But my heart's in the right place.
Another DFS 50/50 lineup prevails, thanks to a highly balanced attack led by exceptional high-flyers Nick Foles and Robby Anderson. My 50/50 record is now 10-5-1. And I was 6-5 on bargains and busts with three players going tonight; I'm sitting at 131-135 on the season, meaning on 266 weekly predictions, if you lined up me on one side and nearly every expert on the other, I was right and they were wrong 49% of the time. Again, these are not cases where I'm joining the pack, or joining half the pack. If you took a leap with me in these 266 instances, you would have been right more than just about anyone else 49% of the time.
Most of you in contention this past weekend probably won or lost already. A few of you head into this evening needing something to happen. And looking ahead, some of you will compete in the utter craziness that is Week 17. So it seems appropriate to do one final "notable impacts" column, highlighting the biggest fantasy storyline for each Sunday team.
Bengals -- As mediocre as Jeff Driskel has looked, I doubt Andy Dalton would have played much better without A.J. Green and, more recently, without Tyler Boyd. Dalton's already low stock has dropped further heading into 2019; if Driskel can put up a 7/2 TD/INT ratio in five games while missing one of the league's top receivers, it's fair to wonder how many other backups could too.
Browns -- Baker Mayfield owns the Bengals this season, with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions en route to two convincing wins. He has 17 TDs in his other 10 starts.
Jaguars -- Leonard Fournette plodded his way to partial fantasy relevancy. A Raider-like season-to-season collapse will force Jags management to reassess this team in the offseason, with a major short-term need at quarterback, and an underperforming former first-rounder in Fournette who has no business serving as the bellcow.
Dolphins -- What could have been for Kenyan Drake. Kalen Ballage now has a realistic shot of being the lead back at some point next season; keep him on your dynasty radar.
Buccaneers -- In his last five starts since replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston has seven TDs and four turnovers -- basically, Jeff Driskel numbers, except surrounded by far more talent. He'll be overpaid next season before heading to free agency in 2020. He's a middling NFL starter, period.
Cowboys -- This will be a dangerous playoff team because of an underrated defense and a terrific running game. Ezekiel Elliott has carried this team often, and yesterday's must-win contest was no exception: 109 yards on 23 touches. A relatively muted game for the all-world back, and that's the point: he hasn't been worse very often.
Vikings -- Where has Kyle Rudolph been? Startable only once since Week 5, the veteran caught fire with the fifth most TE fantasy points of the year. Congrats to those who stuck with him. He entered the week 14th among TE scorers and will end it at #7.
Lions -- Assume Matthew Stafford's woes are due to a back injury, and of course a depleted receiving corps. But if not for his impressive consecutive-games streak, one has to wonder whether he should have gone on the shelf weeks ago in this lost season. Instead, he has one score and four turnovers in his last four games. Ugly.
Giants -- Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram made this interesting. A note on Engram: his production these past two seasons has been tied almost directly to his fellow receivers' injuries. Eight of his nine 15+ fantasy point performances in 2017 and 2018 have come with Odell Beckham, Jr. was sitting.
Colts -- If T.Y. Hilton hadn't missed two games earlier -- and if he'd posted his average 2018 numbers in those two contests -- he'd be the ninth highest scoring WR. Don't sleep on him in next year's draft.
Bills -- LeSean McCoy's miserable season ended on a miserable note. Signed next year and turning 31 in July, he should be traded for whatever Buffalo can get.
Patriots -- In February or March someone will report something about Rob Gronkowski -- about how he was never healthy this year, or about how he had a falling out with Bill Belichick, or whatever. I'm not speculating. I'm only saying his precipitous fall from "greatest tight end of his generation" is beyond shocking, and merits some explanation down the road.
Packers -- An incredible comeback. Jamaal Williams has been on fire these past two games with Aaron Jones on IR. I'm still betting on Jones next year, but fair to say Williams is making the most of the opportunity.
Jets -- Imagine where this team would be if Robby Anderson had been healthy all year. Or imagine if he'd developed this rapport with Sam Darnold back in the summer. Either way, the Jets' 2019 prospects once again are pointing upward, as Anderson's 2017 breakout was no fluke.
Texans -- With Demaryius Thomas potentially out for the year with a torn Achilles', DeAndre Carter will start opposite DeAndre Hopkins until/if Keke Coutee returns. The DT experiment was a bust. If everyone were healthy, he'd be the fourth or fifth option on offense -- not enough to justify losing a fourth-round pick.
Eagles -- I was high on Nick Foles all week because of the matchup, and he came through big-time. There's no reason to think he can't keep it going if they make it to the playoffs.
Falcons -- No Ito Smith? No problem. Tevin Coleman was overshadowed once again, this time by Brian Hill. With Devonta Freeman returning next season, I'm on the edge of my seat contemplating how the workload will be divvied.
Panthers -- Devin Funchess entered this season as Carolina's #1 receiver. He'll end it as the #4 or #5 receiver.
Rams -- I was flat-out wrong about C.J. Anderson. After getting dumped by Carolina, and then by Oakland, I assumed he simply didn't have it anymore. In fairness, Arizona's run D is awful. But in more fairness, C.J. looked like his former self.
Cardinals -- The over/under on David Johnson next season will be top 16-20 RB. Until the QB situation improves (and it probably won't that much in 2019), he'll be a back-end weekly starter at best.
Bears -- Game after game, we're seeing either good Tarik Cohen or bad Tarik Cohen. That said, he's outperforming Jordan Howard by a mile.
49ers -- Give the Niners credit for keeping this close on offense and on defense, despite losing Matt Breida. If Marquise Goodwin had made a decent play on Nick Mullens' throw in the fourth quarter, they easily could have won. Jeff Wilson could get the final start next week. As with Atlanta, San Francisco will have some big backfield decisions to make with Jerick McKinnon returning next season.
Steelers -- A brutal loss that pushes Pittsburgh to the brink of elimination. Their last three losses have been by three points each. Despite the gaudy stats, it's easy to see why this team is trailing the Ravens. Oh, and Antonio Brown went off. He'll enter Week 17 as the #2 scoring fantasy WR.
Saints -- Ted Ginn did more than I anticipated in his first game back. His presence is also critically important for a veteran team eyeing a return to the Super Bowl.
Chiefs -- Damien Williams proved me wrong again. Amazing what can happen when a middling-looking RB goes from a bottom-10 offense (Miami) to an elite offense.
Seahawks -- Possibly the most battle-tested playoff team in the NFC. And Doug Baldwin looks like his old self. No one wants to play Seattle in the first round.
Another DFS 50/50 lineup prevails, thanks to a highly balanced attack led by exceptional high-flyers Nick Foles and Robby Anderson. My 50/50 record is now 10-5-1. And I was 6-5 on bargains and busts with three players going tonight; I'm sitting at 131-135 on the season, meaning on 266 weekly predictions, if you lined up me on one side and nearly every expert on the other, I was right and they were wrong 49% of the time. Again, these are not cases where I'm joining the pack, or joining half the pack. If you took a leap with me in these 266 instances, you would have been right more than just about anyone else 49% of the time.
Most of you in contention this past weekend probably won or lost already. A few of you head into this evening needing something to happen. And looking ahead, some of you will compete in the utter craziness that is Week 17. So it seems appropriate to do one final "notable impacts" column, highlighting the biggest fantasy storyline for each Sunday team.
Bengals -- As mediocre as Jeff Driskel has looked, I doubt Andy Dalton would have played much better without A.J. Green and, more recently, without Tyler Boyd. Dalton's already low stock has dropped further heading into 2019; if Driskel can put up a 7/2 TD/INT ratio in five games while missing one of the league's top receivers, it's fair to wonder how many other backups could too.
Browns -- Baker Mayfield owns the Bengals this season, with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions en route to two convincing wins. He has 17 TDs in his other 10 starts.
Jaguars -- Leonard Fournette plodded his way to partial fantasy relevancy. A Raider-like season-to-season collapse will force Jags management to reassess this team in the offseason, with a major short-term need at quarterback, and an underperforming former first-rounder in Fournette who has no business serving as the bellcow.
Dolphins -- What could have been for Kenyan Drake. Kalen Ballage now has a realistic shot of being the lead back at some point next season; keep him on your dynasty radar.
Buccaneers -- In his last five starts since replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston has seven TDs and four turnovers -- basically, Jeff Driskel numbers, except surrounded by far more talent. He'll be overpaid next season before heading to free agency in 2020. He's a middling NFL starter, period.
Cowboys -- This will be a dangerous playoff team because of an underrated defense and a terrific running game. Ezekiel Elliott has carried this team often, and yesterday's must-win contest was no exception: 109 yards on 23 touches. A relatively muted game for the all-world back, and that's the point: he hasn't been worse very often.
Vikings -- Where has Kyle Rudolph been? Startable only once since Week 5, the veteran caught fire with the fifth most TE fantasy points of the year. Congrats to those who stuck with him. He entered the week 14th among TE scorers and will end it at #7.
Lions -- Assume Matthew Stafford's woes are due to a back injury, and of course a depleted receiving corps. But if not for his impressive consecutive-games streak, one has to wonder whether he should have gone on the shelf weeks ago in this lost season. Instead, he has one score and four turnovers in his last four games. Ugly.
Giants -- Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram made this interesting. A note on Engram: his production these past two seasons has been tied almost directly to his fellow receivers' injuries. Eight of his nine 15+ fantasy point performances in 2017 and 2018 have come with Odell Beckham, Jr. was sitting.
Colts -- If T.Y. Hilton hadn't missed two games earlier -- and if he'd posted his average 2018 numbers in those two contests -- he'd be the ninth highest scoring WR. Don't sleep on him in next year's draft.
Bills -- LeSean McCoy's miserable season ended on a miserable note. Signed next year and turning 31 in July, he should be traded for whatever Buffalo can get.
Patriots -- In February or March someone will report something about Rob Gronkowski -- about how he was never healthy this year, or about how he had a falling out with Bill Belichick, or whatever. I'm not speculating. I'm only saying his precipitous fall from "greatest tight end of his generation" is beyond shocking, and merits some explanation down the road.
Packers -- An incredible comeback. Jamaal Williams has been on fire these past two games with Aaron Jones on IR. I'm still betting on Jones next year, but fair to say Williams is making the most of the opportunity.
Jets -- Imagine where this team would be if Robby Anderson had been healthy all year. Or imagine if he'd developed this rapport with Sam Darnold back in the summer. Either way, the Jets' 2019 prospects once again are pointing upward, as Anderson's 2017 breakout was no fluke.
Texans -- With Demaryius Thomas potentially out for the year with a torn Achilles', DeAndre Carter will start opposite DeAndre Hopkins until/if Keke Coutee returns. The DT experiment was a bust. If everyone were healthy, he'd be the fourth or fifth option on offense -- not enough to justify losing a fourth-round pick.
Eagles -- I was high on Nick Foles all week because of the matchup, and he came through big-time. There's no reason to think he can't keep it going if they make it to the playoffs.
Falcons -- No Ito Smith? No problem. Tevin Coleman was overshadowed once again, this time by Brian Hill. With Devonta Freeman returning next season, I'm on the edge of my seat contemplating how the workload will be divvied.
Panthers -- Devin Funchess entered this season as Carolina's #1 receiver. He'll end it as the #4 or #5 receiver.
Rams -- I was flat-out wrong about C.J. Anderson. After getting dumped by Carolina, and then by Oakland, I assumed he simply didn't have it anymore. In fairness, Arizona's run D is awful. But in more fairness, C.J. looked like his former self.
Cardinals -- The over/under on David Johnson next season will be top 16-20 RB. Until the QB situation improves (and it probably won't that much in 2019), he'll be a back-end weekly starter at best.
Bears -- Game after game, we're seeing either good Tarik Cohen or bad Tarik Cohen. That said, he's outperforming Jordan Howard by a mile.
49ers -- Give the Niners credit for keeping this close on offense and on defense, despite losing Matt Breida. If Marquise Goodwin had made a decent play on Nick Mullens' throw in the fourth quarter, they easily could have won. Jeff Wilson could get the final start next week. As with Atlanta, San Francisco will have some big backfield decisions to make with Jerick McKinnon returning next season.
Steelers -- A brutal loss that pushes Pittsburgh to the brink of elimination. Their last three losses have been by three points each. Despite the gaudy stats, it's easy to see why this team is trailing the Ravens. Oh, and Antonio Brown went off. He'll enter Week 17 as the #2 scoring fantasy WR.
Saints -- Ted Ginn did more than I anticipated in his first game back. His presence is also critically important for a veteran team eyeing a return to the Super Bowl.
Chiefs -- Damien Williams proved me wrong again. Amazing what can happen when a middling-looking RB goes from a bottom-10 offense (Miami) to an elite offense.
Seahawks -- Possibly the most battle-tested playoff team in the NFC. And Doug Baldwin looks like his old self. No one wants to play Seattle in the first round.