As the other FF4W folks know, yesterday I had a write-up ready to go on Kareem Hunt. Then the NFL and Chiefs made the right decisions, rendering my thoughts mostly moot.
I try very hard to be neutral about players -- to not play favorites and to not castigate based on any criteria other than talent, or lack thereof. If Hunt's still in the league next year, I'll evaluate him on his fantasy merits just like everyone else. But I hope he's not. That doesn't mean I don't want him to be a valued member of society, or even to someday return to the NFL as a changed man. Yet the lessons he needs to learn -- like not hurting women, and then hurting them again when they're down, and then not owning up to what he did and hoping it would all get swept under the rug -- take longer than a few months to figure out. Some people never figure it out.
Bringing this back to my cocoon-like fantasy world, if you haven't heeded my six months of urging readers to add/stash Spencer Ware, you're probably out of time. On 14 occasions this preseason and season I've urged readers to stash Ware. It got so repetitive that one of you pointed out a few weeks ago that I was spending too much energy hyping such a worthless player.
Well, sometimes this is what happens. And not just sometimes. As I've written often, around 25% to 35% of handcuff RBs end up starting at some point each season. Occasionally it's more. As some of you might remember, this summer in my very deep 14-team league with 11 bench spots, I drafted 10 handcuffs. That's right: 10. And I'm in the playoffs thanks to one of them (James Conner) turning out to be an RB1, and another (T.J. Yeldon) serving as an RB2 -- and as an RB1 when Leonard Fournette's been sidelined. Justin Jackson is another of the 10, and he could play a solid RB3+ role the next 2-3 weeks. And Ware is another; he'll be an RB1/2 with elite upside as long as he remains healthy.
For the 500th time, when you have a spare bench spot, always, always, always, always, always, always, always stash a handcuff RB. Always.
Always.
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Now to bargains and busts for Week 13. As you know, I don't highlight any guys who have been impacted by mid-week injuries. In other words, Sammy Watkins had a seemingly decent shot of returning this week when Monday rolled around. Now that he's been declared out, Chris Conley will get the start. Conley is Week 13's expert-consensus 75th ranked WR. I will not -- repeat, not -- recommend starting Conley in this column. Experts ranked him low on the assumption Watkins would return. It wouldn't be sporty of me to suddenly claim that Conley's a "bargain." It wasn't so obvious Monday. It's obvious now. So it doesn't count.
And that's why this column is never a slam dunk. The guys I'm picking are unconventional bargains/busts based on today's information, not based on new information that makes them appear much better or much worse bets than earlier in the week.
At QB, Jeff Driskel (consensus 28th ranked Week 13 QB) will get his first NFL start. He'll also get A.J. Green back. The remainder of the season will be a trial run for Driskel. Strong play could lead the Bengals to dump Andy Dalton, which would save them $16.2 million in cap space. I like the younger's prospects to surprise against a middling Denver pass D. And since I'm a glutton for punishment, I'll get Matthew Stafford (20th) another go. LeGarrette Blount stole the show last week with two TDs. It'll be Stafford's turn this week in a game where he'll need to throw a lot more than last week. Facing the Chase Daniels-led Bears is a lot different than facing the all-world Rams. On the flip side, Jameis Winston should be ranked 5th against the Panthers. 10th? Maybe. But it's hard to be on him as a near-elite option.
At RB, I would take a deep flyer (the RB3/4 variety) on Corey Clement, this week's 50th ranked running back. He's a good bet for around seven touches and could sneak in for a score against the reeling Redskins. There are worse Hail Marys to throw this week. The same goes for Justin Jackson (47th). Most people assume Austin Ekeler will dominate backfield touches for the Chargers. I disagree. It'll be a hot-hand situation, making Jackson worth the minimal investment if you don't have a reliable RB3. And Kenyan Drake (31st) is too undervalued. On the flip side, as mentioned, Ekeler (14th) is too risky as an RB1/2. I'm also not buying Matt Bredia at his #11 ranking in Seattle.
At WR, Dontrelle Inman (72nd), Trey Quinn (73rd), and Seth Roberts (74th) are ranked like it's October. Each guy is well positioned to finish second in targets on his respective team this week. And Marquez Valdes-Scantling (49th) remains a nice bargain despite two consecutive bad games; Aaron Rodgers will look like Aaron Rodgers against Arizona. Also, Doug Baldwin (32nd) will surprise in a fantastic matchup. On the flip side, Adam Thielen (5th) won't be a WR1 in New England, and Odell Beckham, Jr. (8th) will suffer from Eli Manning-itis vs. the Bears.
At TE, it's been fun to see Jonnu Smith slowly creep up the rankings every week. Yet he's still only 17th this week. Not good enough. Target Smith as a TD-dependent top-14 option. Gerald Everett (19th) looks even better in the high-powered Rams offense. And Matt LaCosse (25th) will start in a fairly shallow Denver receiving corps, setting him up for a boom-bust day that makes him worth the reach. On the flip side, George Kittle (3rd) could get 15 targets and still not meet expectations; I don't see him finishing in the top 7.
I try very hard to be neutral about players -- to not play favorites and to not castigate based on any criteria other than talent, or lack thereof. If Hunt's still in the league next year, I'll evaluate him on his fantasy merits just like everyone else. But I hope he's not. That doesn't mean I don't want him to be a valued member of society, or even to someday return to the NFL as a changed man. Yet the lessons he needs to learn -- like not hurting women, and then hurting them again when they're down, and then not owning up to what he did and hoping it would all get swept under the rug -- take longer than a few months to figure out. Some people never figure it out.
Bringing this back to my cocoon-like fantasy world, if you haven't heeded my six months of urging readers to add/stash Spencer Ware, you're probably out of time. On 14 occasions this preseason and season I've urged readers to stash Ware. It got so repetitive that one of you pointed out a few weeks ago that I was spending too much energy hyping such a worthless player.
Well, sometimes this is what happens. And not just sometimes. As I've written often, around 25% to 35% of handcuff RBs end up starting at some point each season. Occasionally it's more. As some of you might remember, this summer in my very deep 14-team league with 11 bench spots, I drafted 10 handcuffs. That's right: 10. And I'm in the playoffs thanks to one of them (James Conner) turning out to be an RB1, and another (T.J. Yeldon) serving as an RB2 -- and as an RB1 when Leonard Fournette's been sidelined. Justin Jackson is another of the 10, and he could play a solid RB3+ role the next 2-3 weeks. And Ware is another; he'll be an RB1/2 with elite upside as long as he remains healthy.
For the 500th time, when you have a spare bench spot, always, always, always, always, always, always, always stash a handcuff RB. Always.
Always.
---
Now to bargains and busts for Week 13. As you know, I don't highlight any guys who have been impacted by mid-week injuries. In other words, Sammy Watkins had a seemingly decent shot of returning this week when Monday rolled around. Now that he's been declared out, Chris Conley will get the start. Conley is Week 13's expert-consensus 75th ranked WR. I will not -- repeat, not -- recommend starting Conley in this column. Experts ranked him low on the assumption Watkins would return. It wouldn't be sporty of me to suddenly claim that Conley's a "bargain." It wasn't so obvious Monday. It's obvious now. So it doesn't count.
And that's why this column is never a slam dunk. The guys I'm picking are unconventional bargains/busts based on today's information, not based on new information that makes them appear much better or much worse bets than earlier in the week.
At QB, Jeff Driskel (consensus 28th ranked Week 13 QB) will get his first NFL start. He'll also get A.J. Green back. The remainder of the season will be a trial run for Driskel. Strong play could lead the Bengals to dump Andy Dalton, which would save them $16.2 million in cap space. I like the younger's prospects to surprise against a middling Denver pass D. And since I'm a glutton for punishment, I'll get Matthew Stafford (20th) another go. LeGarrette Blount stole the show last week with two TDs. It'll be Stafford's turn this week in a game where he'll need to throw a lot more than last week. Facing the Chase Daniels-led Bears is a lot different than facing the all-world Rams. On the flip side, Jameis Winston should be ranked 5th against the Panthers. 10th? Maybe. But it's hard to be on him as a near-elite option.
At RB, I would take a deep flyer (the RB3/4 variety) on Corey Clement, this week's 50th ranked running back. He's a good bet for around seven touches and could sneak in for a score against the reeling Redskins. There are worse Hail Marys to throw this week. The same goes for Justin Jackson (47th). Most people assume Austin Ekeler will dominate backfield touches for the Chargers. I disagree. It'll be a hot-hand situation, making Jackson worth the minimal investment if you don't have a reliable RB3. And Kenyan Drake (31st) is too undervalued. On the flip side, as mentioned, Ekeler (14th) is too risky as an RB1/2. I'm also not buying Matt Bredia at his #11 ranking in Seattle.
At WR, Dontrelle Inman (72nd), Trey Quinn (73rd), and Seth Roberts (74th) are ranked like it's October. Each guy is well positioned to finish second in targets on his respective team this week. And Marquez Valdes-Scantling (49th) remains a nice bargain despite two consecutive bad games; Aaron Rodgers will look like Aaron Rodgers against Arizona. Also, Doug Baldwin (32nd) will surprise in a fantastic matchup. On the flip side, Adam Thielen (5th) won't be a WR1 in New England, and Odell Beckham, Jr. (8th) will suffer from Eli Manning-itis vs. the Bears.
At TE, it's been fun to see Jonnu Smith slowly creep up the rankings every week. Yet he's still only 17th this week. Not good enough. Target Smith as a TD-dependent top-14 option. Gerald Everett (19th) looks even better in the high-powered Rams offense. And Matt LaCosse (25th) will start in a fairly shallow Denver receiving corps, setting him up for a boom-bust day that makes him worth the reach. On the flip side, George Kittle (3rd) could get 15 targets and still not meet expectations; I don't see him finishing in the top 7.