The main headline atop yesterday's ESPN Fantasy Football homepage caught my eye:
"Justin Jackson Among Top Free-Agent Finds for Week 15."
Reporting the news is easy, because you're never wrong. Yes, Justin Jackson is, quite obviously, a "top free-agent find" this week, even though the headline was partially outdated shortly after it posted, as Melvin Gordon returned to a limited practice. But let's suppose L.A. is without Gordon (50/50) and Austin Ekeler (likely sitting). Tomorrow the Chargers are facing a Chiefs defense yielding more rushing yards per carry (5.1) than any other NFL team. In fact, it's been five years (the 2013 Bears) since a run D has been worse than Kansas City's.
So yeah, Justin Jackson should be targeted.
I bring this up not to smack down the esteemed people at ESPN. But it raises an important point as we head into the closing weeks of another fantasy season. Guys like Jackson are not "finds." Anyone who's been paying attention has known since the summer that he had a decent shot at making a fantasy impact. For example, this page hyped him three times over the summer and three more times before Melvin Gordon got hurt. In my July 28 column I called him "one of my favorite rookies, period."
In that column I highlighted 13 vastly undervalued RBs worth reaching for ahead of their ADPs: (1) Kallen Ballage (RB-61 ADP / Overall-199 ADP); (2) James White (51/154); (3) Thomas Rawls (117/427); (4) Kenneth Dixon (56/178); (5) Nick Chubb (42/113); (6) Jordan Wilkins (59/191); (7) Justin Jackson (78/281); (8) Samaje Perine (65/212); (9) Rob Kelley (92/348); (10) Aaron Jones (40/105); (11) Ito Smith (76/276); (12) John Kelly (72/265); and (13) Joe Williams (86/314).
Among these 13 FF4W targets, three have been RB1-caliber players: White (although he's fallen off lately, but he's still posting RB1 numbers on the season), and Chubb and Jones since they took over their respective backfields. Meanwhile, Jackson and Dixon are positioned to make some waves this week, Ito Smith has been an RB4, and John Kelly is now bordering on must-roster status.
And so Justin Jackson isn't a "find" any more than Dixon is, or Chubb or Jones or White were. These guys were and are entirely capable of transforming fantasy teams. The goal, then, is not to regurgitate the news; it's to get ahead of it with higher-than-normal probability predictions. Because in the end, talent often wins. The best players frequently rise to the top. Investing in them isn't about hoping they have what it takes; it's about playing the probabilities that they'd earn the opportunities.
To repeat, this summer Aaron Jones was coming off the board, on average, in the 8th round of 12-team leagues. Chubb, the 9th. White, the 12th. Jackson and Dixon could have been stashed a few weeks ago for nothing. This page has been fairly consistent about pushing certain players early and often, trying to "find" value before your opponents do.
The July 28 column serves as a reminder that Hail Marys don't have to have terrible odds. If you'd drafted two of these 13 guys a little bit ahead of their ADPs, you'd have had about a 40% chance of securing a future RB1, and about an 80% of locking in moderate-to-extreme value. No other position offers such high-upside potential for such little investment.
So let's not pretend these players don't exist until the entire fantasy universe discovers them. The Justin Jacksons of the world are there for the taking. It all comes down to how much bench space you can carve out and how patient you can be.
"Justin Jackson Among Top Free-Agent Finds for Week 15."
Reporting the news is easy, because you're never wrong. Yes, Justin Jackson is, quite obviously, a "top free-agent find" this week, even though the headline was partially outdated shortly after it posted, as Melvin Gordon returned to a limited practice. But let's suppose L.A. is without Gordon (50/50) and Austin Ekeler (likely sitting). Tomorrow the Chargers are facing a Chiefs defense yielding more rushing yards per carry (5.1) than any other NFL team. In fact, it's been five years (the 2013 Bears) since a run D has been worse than Kansas City's.
So yeah, Justin Jackson should be targeted.
I bring this up not to smack down the esteemed people at ESPN. But it raises an important point as we head into the closing weeks of another fantasy season. Guys like Jackson are not "finds." Anyone who's been paying attention has known since the summer that he had a decent shot at making a fantasy impact. For example, this page hyped him three times over the summer and three more times before Melvin Gordon got hurt. In my July 28 column I called him "one of my favorite rookies, period."
In that column I highlighted 13 vastly undervalued RBs worth reaching for ahead of their ADPs: (1) Kallen Ballage (RB-61 ADP / Overall-199 ADP); (2) James White (51/154); (3) Thomas Rawls (117/427); (4) Kenneth Dixon (56/178); (5) Nick Chubb (42/113); (6) Jordan Wilkins (59/191); (7) Justin Jackson (78/281); (8) Samaje Perine (65/212); (9) Rob Kelley (92/348); (10) Aaron Jones (40/105); (11) Ito Smith (76/276); (12) John Kelly (72/265); and (13) Joe Williams (86/314).
Among these 13 FF4W targets, three have been RB1-caliber players: White (although he's fallen off lately, but he's still posting RB1 numbers on the season), and Chubb and Jones since they took over their respective backfields. Meanwhile, Jackson and Dixon are positioned to make some waves this week, Ito Smith has been an RB4, and John Kelly is now bordering on must-roster status.
And so Justin Jackson isn't a "find" any more than Dixon is, or Chubb or Jones or White were. These guys were and are entirely capable of transforming fantasy teams. The goal, then, is not to regurgitate the news; it's to get ahead of it with higher-than-normal probability predictions. Because in the end, talent often wins. The best players frequently rise to the top. Investing in them isn't about hoping they have what it takes; it's about playing the probabilities that they'd earn the opportunities.
To repeat, this summer Aaron Jones was coming off the board, on average, in the 8th round of 12-team leagues. Chubb, the 9th. White, the 12th. Jackson and Dixon could have been stashed a few weeks ago for nothing. This page has been fairly consistent about pushing certain players early and often, trying to "find" value before your opponents do.
The July 28 column serves as a reminder that Hail Marys don't have to have terrible odds. If you'd drafted two of these 13 guys a little bit ahead of their ADPs, you'd have had about a 40% chance of securing a future RB1, and about an 80% of locking in moderate-to-extreme value. No other position offers such high-upside potential for such little investment.
So let's not pretend these players don't exist until the entire fantasy universe discovers them. The Justin Jacksons of the world are there for the taking. It all comes down to how much bench space you can carve out and how patient you can be.