This will be my last post of the season. Typically I've had drawn-out wrap-ups that last 2-3 days. Seems pretty excessive. So let's put an exclamation point on 2018 on what happens to be the final day of 2018, and let's all hopefully meet back next summer to do it all again.
I've got several things to run down, and will make it quick.
A big thank you to Aaron Weaver, Joel Verzosa, Matt Weavil, Robbie Lange, and Tommy Barnett for helping me answer more than 10,000 reader questions for the second straight year. The philosophy of Fantasy Football for Winners hasn't wavered since I started it six years ago: Be responsive, bold, accurate, transparent, and courteous. No five people exemplify these five traits better than Aaron, Joel, Matt, Robbie, and Tommy. They're also active dads and husbands, making it all the more remarkable that they can dedicate so many hours each week to this cause.
Also a big thank you to all of you for keeping this community thoughtful and engaged. You push me to get smarter and often challenge my assumptions. That's what it's all about.
At the end of each season I always share how my predictions fared. As noted above, and as reinforced throughout every season, transparency is a big part of FF4W. We don't hide behind our mistakes; we own them, learn from them, and move on. Every Saturday I published a list of bargains and busts based on expert-consensus rankings. My goal was to present contrarian viewpoints on players wrongly being ignored by just about everyone, and on players wrongly being hyped by just about everyone. The final tally was 139 right and 145 wrong. So if you went completely against the grain with some of my weekly contrarian calls, you would have had a 49% chance of capitalizing on an unexpected bargain . . . or saving yourself from starting an overvalued bust.
I fared about the same on my preseason contrarian predictions, hitting 10 and missing 11 for a 48% clip. My biggest misses included warning against Christian McCaffrey (RB-11 ADP), Marlon Mack (RB-36 ADP), and Robert Woods (WR-33 ADP), all of whom were markedly better than most experts thought -- and much, much, much better than I anticipated. My biggest hits included James Conner (RB-67 ADP), LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP), and Austin Hooper (TE-26 ADP). McCoy was a disaster as expected, while all my hyperventilating about Conner and Hooper in July, August, and onward proved at least somewhat useful. My remaining four predictions -- Drew Brees, Javorius Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Jordy Nelson -- fell about halfway between what I predicted vs. their ADP.
And I finished 10-6-1 in my DFS 50/50 Lineups of the Week.
Moving on, a final reminder for the FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League. if you're a dedicated fantasy footballer and want to join Season 2, drop me a line. This year 42 of us competed in three 14-team divisions, and there are already about 50 more of you who've signed up for 2019. This is a league where year after year, the best teams move up divisions and the worst teams move down. So you might get lucky one year and unlucky the next, but over time the best managers rise to the top. This is a first-of-its-kind concept aimed at identifying the best fantasy footballers around. More info can be found here: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/premier-fantasy-league-rules.html.
And if you want to start receiving my 2019 preseason top 300 rankings next July, you can register any time using the big blue box at www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com. As always, it's pay-what-you-want.
Speaking of which, thanks to the hundreds of you who donated this year. I'm adamant about keeping this page free -- that there not be some content for some people and then "better" content for those who can afford it. Contributions are a reminder that what we're doing is making a difference, however small. So if you have the means and inclination to throw in a tip, signing up for the preseason rankings is the best way to go. And if you don't have the means or inclination but you still want the preseason rankings, message me, and I'll sign you up for free.
Today marks my 197th consecutive daily column since kicking off this season June 18. That comes to around 160,000-180,000 words, plus tens of thousands more in answered questions. There's never a day off until the season's done. I have a wife and three little kids and a full-time job, so I have to get creative, waking up nearly every morning at 5:00am while the family's still asleep to research and write 700+ word posts that aren't derivative or outdated or just plain dumb. It means answering questions on the six-minute walk from my car to my office, and then more questions on the six-minute walk back to my car that evening. It means when my one-year-old screams for her pacifier at 1:00am and it's my turn to get up, I'll steal 10-15 minutes to catch up on more questions, or to start sketching out what I want to write about a few hours later.
It's a thrill to be part of a community that challenges me to be my best, even when I'm not feeling my best. It's high-pressure, high-intensity, high-volume engagement, and I'd never trade it for silence.
So thanks again for all you bring to this endeavor -- for showing up and reading and responding . . . and yes, for sometimes reminding me that what I wrote five weeks earlier turned out completely wrong. Because the best ideas win. And thankfully, no one has a monopoly on the best ideas.
Have a great offseason, and we'll see you after the NBA Finals.
I've got several things to run down, and will make it quick.
A big thank you to Aaron Weaver, Joel Verzosa, Matt Weavil, Robbie Lange, and Tommy Barnett for helping me answer more than 10,000 reader questions for the second straight year. The philosophy of Fantasy Football for Winners hasn't wavered since I started it six years ago: Be responsive, bold, accurate, transparent, and courteous. No five people exemplify these five traits better than Aaron, Joel, Matt, Robbie, and Tommy. They're also active dads and husbands, making it all the more remarkable that they can dedicate so many hours each week to this cause.
Also a big thank you to all of you for keeping this community thoughtful and engaged. You push me to get smarter and often challenge my assumptions. That's what it's all about.
At the end of each season I always share how my predictions fared. As noted above, and as reinforced throughout every season, transparency is a big part of FF4W. We don't hide behind our mistakes; we own them, learn from them, and move on. Every Saturday I published a list of bargains and busts based on expert-consensus rankings. My goal was to present contrarian viewpoints on players wrongly being ignored by just about everyone, and on players wrongly being hyped by just about everyone. The final tally was 139 right and 145 wrong. So if you went completely against the grain with some of my weekly contrarian calls, you would have had a 49% chance of capitalizing on an unexpected bargain . . . or saving yourself from starting an overvalued bust.
I fared about the same on my preseason contrarian predictions, hitting 10 and missing 11 for a 48% clip. My biggest misses included warning against Christian McCaffrey (RB-11 ADP), Marlon Mack (RB-36 ADP), and Robert Woods (WR-33 ADP), all of whom were markedly better than most experts thought -- and much, much, much better than I anticipated. My biggest hits included James Conner (RB-67 ADP), LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP), and Austin Hooper (TE-26 ADP). McCoy was a disaster as expected, while all my hyperventilating about Conner and Hooper in July, August, and onward proved at least somewhat useful. My remaining four predictions -- Drew Brees, Javorius Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Jordy Nelson -- fell about halfway between what I predicted vs. their ADP.
And I finished 10-6-1 in my DFS 50/50 Lineups of the Week.
Moving on, a final reminder for the FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League. if you're a dedicated fantasy footballer and want to join Season 2, drop me a line. This year 42 of us competed in three 14-team divisions, and there are already about 50 more of you who've signed up for 2019. This is a league where year after year, the best teams move up divisions and the worst teams move down. So you might get lucky one year and unlucky the next, but over time the best managers rise to the top. This is a first-of-its-kind concept aimed at identifying the best fantasy footballers around. More info can be found here: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/premier-fantasy-league-rules.html.
And if you want to start receiving my 2019 preseason top 300 rankings next July, you can register any time using the big blue box at www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com. As always, it's pay-what-you-want.
Speaking of which, thanks to the hundreds of you who donated this year. I'm adamant about keeping this page free -- that there not be some content for some people and then "better" content for those who can afford it. Contributions are a reminder that what we're doing is making a difference, however small. So if you have the means and inclination to throw in a tip, signing up for the preseason rankings is the best way to go. And if you don't have the means or inclination but you still want the preseason rankings, message me, and I'll sign you up for free.
Today marks my 197th consecutive daily column since kicking off this season June 18. That comes to around 160,000-180,000 words, plus tens of thousands more in answered questions. There's never a day off until the season's done. I have a wife and three little kids and a full-time job, so I have to get creative, waking up nearly every morning at 5:00am while the family's still asleep to research and write 700+ word posts that aren't derivative or outdated or just plain dumb. It means answering questions on the six-minute walk from my car to my office, and then more questions on the six-minute walk back to my car that evening. It means when my one-year-old screams for her pacifier at 1:00am and it's my turn to get up, I'll steal 10-15 minutes to catch up on more questions, or to start sketching out what I want to write about a few hours later.
It's a thrill to be part of a community that challenges me to be my best, even when I'm not feeling my best. It's high-pressure, high-intensity, high-volume engagement, and I'd never trade it for silence.
So thanks again for all you bring to this endeavor -- for showing up and reading and responding . . . and yes, for sometimes reminding me that what I wrote five weeks earlier turned out completely wrong. Because the best ideas win. And thankfully, no one has a monopoly on the best ideas.
Have a great offseason, and we'll see you after the NBA Finals.