I've often viewed Week 1 and Week 17 as the least predictable weeks in fantasy football. The first games are filled with question marks regarding depth chart battles, receiver targeting, and so on. And the final week is often a total crap-shoot, with several teams starting backups or swapping out starters at halftime.
This year, Week 14 is unusually unpredictable. At a time when the best fantasy teams are playing for a chance at the title, many big names are sidelined (like James Conner and Odell Beckham, Jr.), while many other big names are in the midst of relative slumps with no obvious signs of rebounding.
Coming off last Sunday's win, I'm now 7-5-1 on the season in DFS 50/50's. As always, I use Fan Duel for consistency sake. If you use DraftKings are something else, no need to get overly creative. Usually one substitution (for example, a small downgrade at QB or in your #3 WR slot) can make it work. This week's lineup mirrors what I've focused on all year: several elite, high-usage talents and several cheap guys with solid upside. As always, there is no "right" lineup several hours before kickoff. Playing the percentages, we can give ourselves a better-than-50/50 chance to win.
QB Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) -- After several straight weeks warning how overvalued Rodgers has been, I'm shifting gears this week. This is a statement game. With virtually nothing to play for and with the head coach gone, today is all about redemption. It's about the Packers proving they're better than they're record. I'm eyeing 35+ points, with Rodgers returning to elite-ness -- at least for one game.
RB Christian McCaffrey ($9,1000) -- There's no reasonable case to bench him, even at his steep price.
RB Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) -- A win today, and a Redskins loss, will put the Cowboys on the doorstep of a postseason berth. This offense has run through Zeke all year, and he'll continue to serve as one of fantasy's safest RB1s today.
WR Amari Cooper ($6,900) -- Why would I spend this much on the much-maligned Amari? As I wrote last week, since arriving in Dallas Week 9 he's earned 88.4 fantasy points. Over 16 games that would put him on pace for 282.9 points, which last year would have made him the #4 fantasy WR. He's caught 16 of 17 targets the past two games. His 73.2% catch rate places him 12th among all NFL wideouts this season. Simply put, Amari is a better bet than his track record suggests, particularly in a must-win game against a decimated Eagles defense. Oh, and he's also an incredible hedge if Zeke falls flat.
WR Sterling Shepard ($5,200) -- While I'm not expecting a big game out of Shepard, WR3 production seems reasonable. Not bad for this price.
WR Zay Jones ($5,100) -- It's hard not to start a $5,100 guy who's established himself as his quarterback's clear #1 target. Jones was a bust his rookie year, but he's capable of being a weekly WR3+ in the right system, and the Bills are currently getting the most out of him.
TE Evan Engram ($5,000) -- I had Dan Arnold ($1,000 cheaper) in this lineup until writing this. After moving three players around, I can make room for the higher-upside Engram, who's suddenly relevant again with OBJ out.
RB Aaron Jones ($7,500) -- Passed up JuJu Smith-Schuster for Jones, who gives me a nice hedge in case Rodgers hands the ball off near the goal line. Concerned about his sporadic usage, but also confident Green Bay will try to get the most out of him.
DST Bills ($4,200) -- I have $4,300 left, and Buffalo is a good bet for top-10 DST numbers at home against the Jets.
Good luck today.
This year, Week 14 is unusually unpredictable. At a time when the best fantasy teams are playing for a chance at the title, many big names are sidelined (like James Conner and Odell Beckham, Jr.), while many other big names are in the midst of relative slumps with no obvious signs of rebounding.
Coming off last Sunday's win, I'm now 7-5-1 on the season in DFS 50/50's. As always, I use Fan Duel for consistency sake. If you use DraftKings are something else, no need to get overly creative. Usually one substitution (for example, a small downgrade at QB or in your #3 WR slot) can make it work. This week's lineup mirrors what I've focused on all year: several elite, high-usage talents and several cheap guys with solid upside. As always, there is no "right" lineup several hours before kickoff. Playing the percentages, we can give ourselves a better-than-50/50 chance to win.
QB Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) -- After several straight weeks warning how overvalued Rodgers has been, I'm shifting gears this week. This is a statement game. With virtually nothing to play for and with the head coach gone, today is all about redemption. It's about the Packers proving they're better than they're record. I'm eyeing 35+ points, with Rodgers returning to elite-ness -- at least for one game.
RB Christian McCaffrey ($9,1000) -- There's no reasonable case to bench him, even at his steep price.
RB Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) -- A win today, and a Redskins loss, will put the Cowboys on the doorstep of a postseason berth. This offense has run through Zeke all year, and he'll continue to serve as one of fantasy's safest RB1s today.
WR Amari Cooper ($6,900) -- Why would I spend this much on the much-maligned Amari? As I wrote last week, since arriving in Dallas Week 9 he's earned 88.4 fantasy points. Over 16 games that would put him on pace for 282.9 points, which last year would have made him the #4 fantasy WR. He's caught 16 of 17 targets the past two games. His 73.2% catch rate places him 12th among all NFL wideouts this season. Simply put, Amari is a better bet than his track record suggests, particularly in a must-win game against a decimated Eagles defense. Oh, and he's also an incredible hedge if Zeke falls flat.
WR Sterling Shepard ($5,200) -- While I'm not expecting a big game out of Shepard, WR3 production seems reasonable. Not bad for this price.
WR Zay Jones ($5,100) -- It's hard not to start a $5,100 guy who's established himself as his quarterback's clear #1 target. Jones was a bust his rookie year, but he's capable of being a weekly WR3+ in the right system, and the Bills are currently getting the most out of him.
TE Evan Engram ($5,000) -- I had Dan Arnold ($1,000 cheaper) in this lineup until writing this. After moving three players around, I can make room for the higher-upside Engram, who's suddenly relevant again with OBJ out.
RB Aaron Jones ($7,500) -- Passed up JuJu Smith-Schuster for Jones, who gives me a nice hedge in case Rodgers hands the ball off near the goal line. Concerned about his sporadic usage, but also confident Green Bay will try to get the most out of him.
DST Bills ($4,200) -- I have $4,300 left, and Buffalo is a good bet for top-10 DST numbers at home against the Jets.
Good luck today.