Today and tomorrow I'll run down this season's biggest busts (today) and bargains (tomorrow) at each position -- and how we could have possibly anticipated such performances way back in July and August.
Focusing on the busts, at QB we'll start with Tom Brady, whose preseason QB-3 ADP suggested he was headed toward yet another huge year. He hung 277 yards and three touchdowns in Houston in Week 1 despite being without Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, and Josh Gordon (shortly before they traded for him). But remarkably he's had seven games with one or zero TDs, and he's currently sitting at #13 among all fantasy QBs, thanks in part to six unstartable outings in his last eight games.
So what happened? A year after saying he might still be playing at age 45, the 41-year-old might finally be looking his age. Earlier this year I shared one of the most telling statistics I could find, and I'll update it now: Brady's 16th among all QBs in fantasy points inside the opposing 5-yard line, and is 15th inside the opposing 10. So it shouldn't surprise anyone that the Pats' running backs excel inside the 5 and the 10. Only four teams (Saints, Rams, Chiefs, and Jaguars) have more RB fantasy points inside the 5, and three (Saints, Rams, and Chiefs) have more RB fantasy points inside the 10. In fact, 10 of Brady's passing TDs this year have come inside the 10, well below his career average of 16 TDs inside the 10.
The heightened lean on the ground game near the goal line is all the more surprising given how mediocre it's been. The Pats are averaging 4.3 YPC, good for 19th among all NFL teams. Additionally, little-used James Develin (25.5 fantasy points) has been just as productive as Sony Michel has been inside the 5 despite getting out-touched 13-5. And James White (27 fantasy points) hasn't been much better on 11 touches. They've completed overshadowed Brady, who's QB rating inside the 10 is 55.2. Inside the 5? 33. That's right: Brady has been awful up close. We've also seen a dramatic decline on deep balls: 13-for-40 for 460 yards and four TDs on throws beyond 20 yards. These numbers are down across the board compared to last year, the year before, the year before that, and so on.
This segues into the biggest TE bust of the season, Rob Gronkowski. Has he been playing hurt? Was there a falling out between him and Brady, or between him and Bill Belichick? Surely we'll hear more during the offseason. In one of those chicken-and-egg cases, it's hard to know what's had a bigger impact: Brady's poor play on Gronk, or Gronk's poor play on Brady. But the nearly universal preseason #1 fantasy TE (but not on my draft board) hit rock bottom with Sunday's donut. He's signed for one more year. Who knows if he'll want to keep playing.
Among RBs, I won't name Le'Veon Bell or Devonta Freeman for obvious reasons. So that leaves Leonard Fournette, who's run worse than last season, if that's possible. And his "oft-injured" reputation was compounded this year with seven missed games and plenty of questionable tags. He has six TDs in eight starts and is capable of big games when healthy. But with Carlos Hyde under contract and T.J. Yeldon -- arguably the Jags' best back -- headed toward free agency, this franchise has some big decisions. And they'll likely be influenced by the fact that Fournette probably can't be trusted as a long-term bellcow.
Finally, there are so many receivers to choose from in the "biggest WR bust" category. My pick is Chris Hogan, who seemed like a shoo-in for WR2+ numbers while Julian Edelman was suspended the first four games. Instead, he's had only two WR2 performances all year. The rest of the time he's been unstartable. It's been an astounding collapse for one of this preseason's trendiest WR draft picks -- a WR-24 ADP option coming off progressively better per-game seasons in 2016 and 2017.
I didn't start writing this piece with the intention of including three Patriots. But fantasy-wise, that's how the season's gone for a team that for about 15 years has offered a steady stream of fantasy-friendly passing attacks.
Turning to you: Who are your biggest busts of 2018?
Focusing on the busts, at QB we'll start with Tom Brady, whose preseason QB-3 ADP suggested he was headed toward yet another huge year. He hung 277 yards and three touchdowns in Houston in Week 1 despite being without Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, and Josh Gordon (shortly before they traded for him). But remarkably he's had seven games with one or zero TDs, and he's currently sitting at #13 among all fantasy QBs, thanks in part to six unstartable outings in his last eight games.
So what happened? A year after saying he might still be playing at age 45, the 41-year-old might finally be looking his age. Earlier this year I shared one of the most telling statistics I could find, and I'll update it now: Brady's 16th among all QBs in fantasy points inside the opposing 5-yard line, and is 15th inside the opposing 10. So it shouldn't surprise anyone that the Pats' running backs excel inside the 5 and the 10. Only four teams (Saints, Rams, Chiefs, and Jaguars) have more RB fantasy points inside the 5, and three (Saints, Rams, and Chiefs) have more RB fantasy points inside the 10. In fact, 10 of Brady's passing TDs this year have come inside the 10, well below his career average of 16 TDs inside the 10.
The heightened lean on the ground game near the goal line is all the more surprising given how mediocre it's been. The Pats are averaging 4.3 YPC, good for 19th among all NFL teams. Additionally, little-used James Develin (25.5 fantasy points) has been just as productive as Sony Michel has been inside the 5 despite getting out-touched 13-5. And James White (27 fantasy points) hasn't been much better on 11 touches. They've completed overshadowed Brady, who's QB rating inside the 10 is 55.2. Inside the 5? 33. That's right: Brady has been awful up close. We've also seen a dramatic decline on deep balls: 13-for-40 for 460 yards and four TDs on throws beyond 20 yards. These numbers are down across the board compared to last year, the year before, the year before that, and so on.
This segues into the biggest TE bust of the season, Rob Gronkowski. Has he been playing hurt? Was there a falling out between him and Brady, or between him and Bill Belichick? Surely we'll hear more during the offseason. In one of those chicken-and-egg cases, it's hard to know what's had a bigger impact: Brady's poor play on Gronk, or Gronk's poor play on Brady. But the nearly universal preseason #1 fantasy TE (but not on my draft board) hit rock bottom with Sunday's donut. He's signed for one more year. Who knows if he'll want to keep playing.
Among RBs, I won't name Le'Veon Bell or Devonta Freeman for obvious reasons. So that leaves Leonard Fournette, who's run worse than last season, if that's possible. And his "oft-injured" reputation was compounded this year with seven missed games and plenty of questionable tags. He has six TDs in eight starts and is capable of big games when healthy. But with Carlos Hyde under contract and T.J. Yeldon -- arguably the Jags' best back -- headed toward free agency, this franchise has some big decisions. And they'll likely be influenced by the fact that Fournette probably can't be trusted as a long-term bellcow.
Finally, there are so many receivers to choose from in the "biggest WR bust" category. My pick is Chris Hogan, who seemed like a shoo-in for WR2+ numbers while Julian Edelman was suspended the first four games. Instead, he's had only two WR2 performances all year. The rest of the time he's been unstartable. It's been an astounding collapse for one of this preseason's trendiest WR draft picks -- a WR-24 ADP option coming off progressively better per-game seasons in 2016 and 2017.
I didn't start writing this piece with the intention of including three Patriots. But fantasy-wise, that's how the season's gone for a team that for about 15 years has offered a steady stream of fantasy-friendly passing attacks.
Turning to you: Who are your biggest busts of 2018?