Yesterday I highlighted some of the biggest positional busts of 2018. So who were some of the biggest bargains?
Patrick Mahomes easily takes the prize at quarterback. To think his preseason QB ADP was 16 -- that fantasy managers universally viewed him as a middling, barely draftable option. As I wrote earlier this year (though far too late to help anyone), his breakout made complete sense in hindsight. The historically middling Alex Smith enjoyed a career year in 2017, and it's wasn't an accident. He benefited from having an elite RB, an elite WR, and an elite TE at his disposal. It also helped that Kansas City's defense was no better than average, meaning Smith was throwing deeper into games than he would have if he'd been backed by Jacksonsville's or Minnesota's defense.
This reality was heightened in 2018. Mahomes is more far talented than Smith, he had the same three elite players surrounding him for most of the year (plus half a season of a fairly productive Sammy Watkins). And the Chiefs' defense has been even worse, forcing Mahomes to run his offense aggressively deep into games. A healthy 11 (23%) of his 48 passing TDs have come in the fourth quarter. If this team's defense doesn't dramatically improve heading into next season, there's no reason to think Mahomes won't be able to replicate his breakout 2018 numbers.
At RB, I'll push James Conner to the side for now. As Le'Veon Bell's backup, he was a must-roster option this summer, period. The more notable bargain was Phillip Lindsay, whose RB-106 ADP made him undraftable in nearly every league known to humans. He was a third-stringer in a mediocre offense, running behind highly touted rookie Royce Freeman. Some of you surely saw potential greatness in Lindsay, who ran very well in college and on into training camp. But his back-end RB1 production . . . well, I never saw it coming. So kudos to those who added him early.
At WR I'm going with an even bigger preseason long shot, Tyler Boyd (WR-118 ADP). While I was hyping presumed #2 WR John Ross this summer, Boyd took hold of the starting job in September and never let it go. He'll end the year as a top-20 fantasy WR despite missing the final two games. And keep in mind a big chunk of his damage game with A.J. Green on the field. With Green a free agent in 2020, it'll be interesting to see whether Cincinnati views this pair as a long-term receiving tandem, or if Boyd slides into the #1 role after next season.
And at TE, a strong case could be made for George Kittle, Jared Cook, or Austin Hooper -- three of fantasy's top 6 TEs currently. But my vote goes to Eric Ebron, the 18th ranked preseason fantasy tight end who was expected to play behind Jack Doyle all year. Not a chance. Ebron became a scoring machine and at times served as Andrew Luck's #1 target. And for those who claim Doyle's injury opened the door for the Lions' cast-off TE, that's not exactly how it went down. In the six games where both were healthy, Doyle averaged 10.1 fantasy points per contest. Ebron averaged 14.8. The latter has been a difference-maker for any deep-leaguer who missed on a top-16 tight end.
Now turning to you: Who were your biggest bargains of 2018, and why?
Patrick Mahomes easily takes the prize at quarterback. To think his preseason QB ADP was 16 -- that fantasy managers universally viewed him as a middling, barely draftable option. As I wrote earlier this year (though far too late to help anyone), his breakout made complete sense in hindsight. The historically middling Alex Smith enjoyed a career year in 2017, and it's wasn't an accident. He benefited from having an elite RB, an elite WR, and an elite TE at his disposal. It also helped that Kansas City's defense was no better than average, meaning Smith was throwing deeper into games than he would have if he'd been backed by Jacksonsville's or Minnesota's defense.
This reality was heightened in 2018. Mahomes is more far talented than Smith, he had the same three elite players surrounding him for most of the year (plus half a season of a fairly productive Sammy Watkins). And the Chiefs' defense has been even worse, forcing Mahomes to run his offense aggressively deep into games. A healthy 11 (23%) of his 48 passing TDs have come in the fourth quarter. If this team's defense doesn't dramatically improve heading into next season, there's no reason to think Mahomes won't be able to replicate his breakout 2018 numbers.
At RB, I'll push James Conner to the side for now. As Le'Veon Bell's backup, he was a must-roster option this summer, period. The more notable bargain was Phillip Lindsay, whose RB-106 ADP made him undraftable in nearly every league known to humans. He was a third-stringer in a mediocre offense, running behind highly touted rookie Royce Freeman. Some of you surely saw potential greatness in Lindsay, who ran very well in college and on into training camp. But his back-end RB1 production . . . well, I never saw it coming. So kudos to those who added him early.
At WR I'm going with an even bigger preseason long shot, Tyler Boyd (WR-118 ADP). While I was hyping presumed #2 WR John Ross this summer, Boyd took hold of the starting job in September and never let it go. He'll end the year as a top-20 fantasy WR despite missing the final two games. And keep in mind a big chunk of his damage game with A.J. Green on the field. With Green a free agent in 2020, it'll be interesting to see whether Cincinnati views this pair as a long-term receiving tandem, or if Boyd slides into the #1 role after next season.
And at TE, a strong case could be made for George Kittle, Jared Cook, or Austin Hooper -- three of fantasy's top 6 TEs currently. But my vote goes to Eric Ebron, the 18th ranked preseason fantasy tight end who was expected to play behind Jack Doyle all year. Not a chance. Ebron became a scoring machine and at times served as Andrew Luck's #1 target. And for those who claim Doyle's injury opened the door for the Lions' cast-off TE, that's not exactly how it went down. In the six games where both were healthy, Doyle averaged 10.1 fantasy points per contest. Ebron averaged 14.8. The latter has been a difference-maker for any deep-leaguer who missed on a top-16 tight end.
Now turning to you: Who were your biggest bargains of 2018, and why?