If we could bench 30 players, we wouldn't have to worry about things like dropping our top-5 kicker because he's on a bye, or holding onto an injured WR3 who might or might not return by Week 16.
But fantasy football isn't that easy. Tough choices have to be made. And the timing of those tough choices is often the difference between winning and losing.
For example, one of my opponents dropped kicker Will Lutz during his Week 6 bye. There simply wasn't enough room on his bench to stash a top-8 kicker. Meanwhile, I was struggling to find a reliable K1 and had an extra bench spot to burn. Today Lutz is fantasy's #1 kicker, and his 16-point outburst single-handedly carried me to a narrow Week 8 victory.
Take Le'Veon Bell, who many managers have been holding onto for far too long. When was the right time to cut bait? Surely not Week 1, when it appeared he'd be stupid to sit out all season. And not after Week 4, when James Conner was scuffling and not getting enough touches. But imagine how many good players have been passed up by managers who held onto Bell throughout October and into November? That bench spot could have been used on a high-powered handcuff like Nick Chubb, or a situationally useful WR like Maurice Harris.
Regarding Bell, I was a fan of keeping him until a mid-October post warning about an impending tipping point: "If Bell hasn't returned by [Week 8], Conner is more than likely to finish the season as the team's bellcow." It was met with some consternation, presumably from managers who weren't ready to cut bait -- who still saw Bell as a late-season savior. Each week, amidst news reports that Bell's return was imminent, this page became increasingly convinced that he wouldn't.
Yesterday Bell made it official by not reporting to the team, ending his season and leaving some fantasy managers high and dry, while those who abandoned him weeks ago haven't had to worry as much about whether to drop their top-8 kicker on a bye week. They've had the luxury of adding Jaylen Samuels or Spencer Ware or Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Barring hard-and-fast reasons (like a player getting knocked out for the season), there's no pre-determined perfect timing for dropping someone. It comes down to measuring risk. Drafting Bell was a no-brainer. Holding onto him in September offered minimal risk and RB1 reward. Holding onto him in October offered moderate risk and possible RB2 reward. Holding onto him as recently as this past week represented high risk and, at best, RB3 reward.
That, in a nutshell, is the calculation we all need to make when evaluating if/when to drop a player. It's as simple as risk/reward. I started urging readers to drop Bell when he didn't return during the Week 7 bye, after factoring in the time he'd need to get into game shape, the reported frustration coming out of Pittsburgh's locker room, and Conner's fantastic late-season schedule (facing a series of bottom-tier run defenses). It no longer made sense to retain someone with only a half-decent chance at eventual RB2 production. A chance at RB2 output? Seems tempting, until you consider everything needed to go nearly perfectly for Bell to get that chance.
And once that determination's made, the decision has to be quick. No emotion. No what-ifs. Once we realize a guy like Bell isn't likely to help us win it all, he needs to be dumped.
It's conventional wisdom that we win because of the players we have. But we also win because of the players we no longer have.
But fantasy football isn't that easy. Tough choices have to be made. And the timing of those tough choices is often the difference between winning and losing.
For example, one of my opponents dropped kicker Will Lutz during his Week 6 bye. There simply wasn't enough room on his bench to stash a top-8 kicker. Meanwhile, I was struggling to find a reliable K1 and had an extra bench spot to burn. Today Lutz is fantasy's #1 kicker, and his 16-point outburst single-handedly carried me to a narrow Week 8 victory.
Take Le'Veon Bell, who many managers have been holding onto for far too long. When was the right time to cut bait? Surely not Week 1, when it appeared he'd be stupid to sit out all season. And not after Week 4, when James Conner was scuffling and not getting enough touches. But imagine how many good players have been passed up by managers who held onto Bell throughout October and into November? That bench spot could have been used on a high-powered handcuff like Nick Chubb, or a situationally useful WR like Maurice Harris.
Regarding Bell, I was a fan of keeping him until a mid-October post warning about an impending tipping point: "If Bell hasn't returned by [Week 8], Conner is more than likely to finish the season as the team's bellcow." It was met with some consternation, presumably from managers who weren't ready to cut bait -- who still saw Bell as a late-season savior. Each week, amidst news reports that Bell's return was imminent, this page became increasingly convinced that he wouldn't.
Yesterday Bell made it official by not reporting to the team, ending his season and leaving some fantasy managers high and dry, while those who abandoned him weeks ago haven't had to worry as much about whether to drop their top-8 kicker on a bye week. They've had the luxury of adding Jaylen Samuels or Spencer Ware or Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Barring hard-and-fast reasons (like a player getting knocked out for the season), there's no pre-determined perfect timing for dropping someone. It comes down to measuring risk. Drafting Bell was a no-brainer. Holding onto him in September offered minimal risk and RB1 reward. Holding onto him in October offered moderate risk and possible RB2 reward. Holding onto him as recently as this past week represented high risk and, at best, RB3 reward.
That, in a nutshell, is the calculation we all need to make when evaluating if/when to drop a player. It's as simple as risk/reward. I started urging readers to drop Bell when he didn't return during the Week 7 bye, after factoring in the time he'd need to get into game shape, the reported frustration coming out of Pittsburgh's locker room, and Conner's fantastic late-season schedule (facing a series of bottom-tier run defenses). It no longer made sense to retain someone with only a half-decent chance at eventual RB2 production. A chance at RB2 output? Seems tempting, until you consider everything needed to go nearly perfectly for Bell to get that chance.
And once that determination's made, the decision has to be quick. No emotion. No what-ifs. Once we realize a guy like Bell isn't likely to help us win it all, he needs to be dumped.
It's conventional wisdom that we win because of the players we have. But we also win because of the players we no longer have.