Time for the weekly "Bargains and Busts" column, where I highlight dramatically undervalued and overvalued Week 9 options.
Kicking things off at QB is Brock Osweiler (expert consensus 22nd-ranked Week 9 QB). He's still down Kenny Stills in the passing game, but the return/resurgence of DeVante Parker, combined with Danny Amendola and Kenyan Drake (on pace for 64 receptions) will lead Osweiler to his third productive outing in the past four weeks. I'm also expecting Dak Prescott (#18 QB) to be at least marginally better than his ranking.
On the flip side, I'm once again wary of the normally nearly flawless Aaron Rodgers (#3 QB). No team this year will be more prepared to contain him than the Patriots, despite their defensive gaps.
At RB, Alex Collins (#29) is an underrated RB3 with nice upside. He's 12th in fantasy among all running backs in fantasy points inside the opposing 10-yard line, and 7th inside the opposing 20. Aaron Jones (#26) will also outperform expectations in what should be his heaviest workload of the season.
On the flip side, Todd Gurley is on pace for 30 touchdowns. 125 of 126 experts rank him as a top 3 RB this week (and 117 place him at #1). I'm joining The Fantasy Footballers' Andy Holloway to claim that he won't be a top-8 option. There is no stingier run D than the Saints, and their pass D is atrocious. I'm anticipating the Rams attacking where New Orleans is most vulnerable. Gurley's on pace for a healthy 338 carries this year. Expect that projection to drop after this game. I'm also wary of James Conner (#9) against a strong Ravens defense; he won't be a top-14 option.
Keep in mind I'm forced to start Gurley and Conner in my Premier Fantasy Football League. So there's no joy in proclaiming my key guys are overvalued. But that's how I see it.
At WR, Jakeem Grant (#59) and teammate Danny Amendola (#45) are worthwhile starts if you don't have a top-40 WR at flex. Grant is more TD-dependent, while Amendola should comfortably surpass his ranking. The perennially underperforming Josh Doctson (#58) also has WR4+ appeal as a potential #3 target for Alex Smith against a porous Atlanta D. Same goes for his significantly undervalued teammate Paul Richardson (#54). Two other guys I like more than most: Chris Hogan (#51) and Amari Cooper (#47). Hogan is far better than his numbers and usage suggest, while Cooper should get plenty of looks so that Dallas can justify having paid a hefty sum to acquire him.
On the flip side, Keenan Allen (#12) remains a risky must-start receiver with so many talented mouths to feed in L.A. And JuJu Smith-Schuster (#16) will make it four out of five games as no better than a mid-range WR3.
At TE, Kyle Rudolph (#11) hasn't had double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. That'll change Sunday as Minnesota faces a must-win challenge against the divisional rival Lions. On the flip side, O.J. Howard (#7) is too bullishly priced in a tough game against Carolina. He's averaging less than five targets per game, meaning he needs to score to be the TE1 most fantasy experts anticipate. Too risky for me.
Kicking things off at QB is Brock Osweiler (expert consensus 22nd-ranked Week 9 QB). He's still down Kenny Stills in the passing game, but the return/resurgence of DeVante Parker, combined with Danny Amendola and Kenyan Drake (on pace for 64 receptions) will lead Osweiler to his third productive outing in the past four weeks. I'm also expecting Dak Prescott (#18 QB) to be at least marginally better than his ranking.
On the flip side, I'm once again wary of the normally nearly flawless Aaron Rodgers (#3 QB). No team this year will be more prepared to contain him than the Patriots, despite their defensive gaps.
At RB, Alex Collins (#29) is an underrated RB3 with nice upside. He's 12th in fantasy among all running backs in fantasy points inside the opposing 10-yard line, and 7th inside the opposing 20. Aaron Jones (#26) will also outperform expectations in what should be his heaviest workload of the season.
On the flip side, Todd Gurley is on pace for 30 touchdowns. 125 of 126 experts rank him as a top 3 RB this week (and 117 place him at #1). I'm joining The Fantasy Footballers' Andy Holloway to claim that he won't be a top-8 option. There is no stingier run D than the Saints, and their pass D is atrocious. I'm anticipating the Rams attacking where New Orleans is most vulnerable. Gurley's on pace for a healthy 338 carries this year. Expect that projection to drop after this game. I'm also wary of James Conner (#9) against a strong Ravens defense; he won't be a top-14 option.
Keep in mind I'm forced to start Gurley and Conner in my Premier Fantasy Football League. So there's no joy in proclaiming my key guys are overvalued. But that's how I see it.
At WR, Jakeem Grant (#59) and teammate Danny Amendola (#45) are worthwhile starts if you don't have a top-40 WR at flex. Grant is more TD-dependent, while Amendola should comfortably surpass his ranking. The perennially underperforming Josh Doctson (#58) also has WR4+ appeal as a potential #3 target for Alex Smith against a porous Atlanta D. Same goes for his significantly undervalued teammate Paul Richardson (#54). Two other guys I like more than most: Chris Hogan (#51) and Amari Cooper (#47). Hogan is far better than his numbers and usage suggest, while Cooper should get plenty of looks so that Dallas can justify having paid a hefty sum to acquire him.
On the flip side, Keenan Allen (#12) remains a risky must-start receiver with so many talented mouths to feed in L.A. And JuJu Smith-Schuster (#16) will make it four out of five games as no better than a mid-range WR3.
At TE, Kyle Rudolph (#11) hasn't had double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. That'll change Sunday as Minnesota faces a must-win challenge against the divisional rival Lions. On the flip side, O.J. Howard (#7) is too bullishly priced in a tough game against Carolina. He's averaging less than five targets per game, meaning he needs to score to be the TE1 most fantasy experts anticipate. Too risky for me.