Three teams are on pace to be among the top-5 point scorers in NFL history. The Saints are within reach of #1.
New Orleans proved last week they could win even if Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Michael Thomas didn’t get any TDs. It was only the second time in 24 games that one of these three hadn’t found the end zone (yes, I ran the numbers --- only the best for the FF4W community . . . and sometimes the worst).
Instead, the four Saints receivers who scored were unrostered in virtually 100% of ESPN leagues, adding to the mystique of a team that’s won 10 straight and hasn’t scored fewer than 21 points all year -- one point higher than the lowest output of NFL’s most prolific offense of all time, the 2013 Broncos.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ midseason Hail Mary trade for Amari Cooper might finally be paying off. Winners of three straight, Dallas has now overcome a two-game deficit to Washington to move atop the NFC East (via tiebreaker). They’ll be in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth with two wins in their next three games against the Saints, Eagles, and Colts. Easier said than done, obviously.
While New Orleans is a comfortable 7-point favorite tonight, Dallas has a fairly clear path to victory. These two teams are top-3 in run defense (3.6 YPC and 3.7 YPC, respectively). If the Cowboys can somehow establish the run game -- if they don’t feel any first-half urgency to air it out -- then tonight will be quite a contest. Because beyond Amari and Zeke, Dak doesn’t have any reliable receivers. And even Amari hardly qualifies as “reliable.” Last Thursday morning I wrote something similar, that Dallas’s key to beating Washington was wearing them down on the ground. And that’s what Zeke did, earning his second consecutive 30+ touch performance.
Keep in mind the Saints lead the NFL in time of possession: 32:30 per game (excluding all overtimes). That’s not far off from the best mark since Houston in 2012 (33:01), when Arian Foster earned 391 touches (which of course turned out to be his first and only 16-game season). In fact, the next best team this year, the Eagles, owns a 31:39 mark. That 51-second deficit between Philly and New Orleans is larger than the gap between Philly and the 10th best team, Washington (30:58).
In other words, the Saints are far-and-away the most elite time-of-possession team in 2018, and are one of the most elite in the past 20 years.
And so again, it all comes down to whether the Cowboys can control the clock. Expect 30+ touches for Zeke and some scampers by Dak, who surprisingly has 20+ fantasy points in four of his last six contests, moving him up to 15th among all fantasy QBs. A preseason consensus mid-range QB2, he might surprise everyone and creep into the top 10 before the season’s over.
New Orleans proved last week they could win even if Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Michael Thomas didn’t get any TDs. It was only the second time in 24 games that one of these three hadn’t found the end zone (yes, I ran the numbers --- only the best for the FF4W community . . . and sometimes the worst).
Instead, the four Saints receivers who scored were unrostered in virtually 100% of ESPN leagues, adding to the mystique of a team that’s won 10 straight and hasn’t scored fewer than 21 points all year -- one point higher than the lowest output of NFL’s most prolific offense of all time, the 2013 Broncos.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ midseason Hail Mary trade for Amari Cooper might finally be paying off. Winners of three straight, Dallas has now overcome a two-game deficit to Washington to move atop the NFC East (via tiebreaker). They’ll be in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth with two wins in their next three games against the Saints, Eagles, and Colts. Easier said than done, obviously.
While New Orleans is a comfortable 7-point favorite tonight, Dallas has a fairly clear path to victory. These two teams are top-3 in run defense (3.6 YPC and 3.7 YPC, respectively). If the Cowboys can somehow establish the run game -- if they don’t feel any first-half urgency to air it out -- then tonight will be quite a contest. Because beyond Amari and Zeke, Dak doesn’t have any reliable receivers. And even Amari hardly qualifies as “reliable.” Last Thursday morning I wrote something similar, that Dallas’s key to beating Washington was wearing them down on the ground. And that’s what Zeke did, earning his second consecutive 30+ touch performance.
Keep in mind the Saints lead the NFL in time of possession: 32:30 per game (excluding all overtimes). That’s not far off from the best mark since Houston in 2012 (33:01), when Arian Foster earned 391 touches (which of course turned out to be his first and only 16-game season). In fact, the next best team this year, the Eagles, owns a 31:39 mark. That 51-second deficit between Philly and New Orleans is larger than the gap between Philly and the 10th best team, Washington (30:58).
In other words, the Saints are far-and-away the most elite time-of-possession team in 2018, and are one of the most elite in the past 20 years.
And so again, it all comes down to whether the Cowboys can control the clock. Expect 30+ touches for Zeke and some scampers by Dak, who surprisingly has 20+ fantasy points in four of his last six contests, moving him up to 15th among all fantasy QBs. A preseason consensus mid-range QB2, he might surprise everyone and creep into the top 10 before the season’s over.