Happy Thanksgiving. Now on to football.
Game 1: Lions vs. Bears -- Only twice in nearly 50 seasons have two teams played each other twice in the regular season within a 12-day span. Today will mark the third time as Detroit seeks to avenge its November 11 loss to Chicago. In that game, Mitch Trubisky was healthy and brilliant. Today (as of writing this at 5:30am) he's expected to sit with a sprained shoulder. Nine-year journeyman QB Chase Daniel -- who's thrown exactly one pass in the past three years while playing for three teams -- will get the nod. This could be entertaining or ugly.
1-1 in his career, Daniel has repeatedly shown well in preseason games, for whatever that's worth. And he's facing a team that's yielding a 116.1 QB rating to opposing quarterbacks -- second worst in the league. But count me concerned: This is Thanksgiving football, after all, and the 4-6 Lions will step up at home. Expect a more conservative game plan from the Bears featuring plenty Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen vs. Detroit's bad run defense (4.8 YPC), in the hopes that Chicago's D can once again man-handle Matthew Stafford and the Kerryon Johnson-less running game.
I actually like Detroit (3-point underdogs) taking this one, with a heavy dose of Kenny Golladay combining with enough LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick to wear down the Bears' elite D. It won't be a pretty game, and it won't satisfy many fantasy managers' hopes for a ton of scoring. But Detroit will keep their faint playoff hopes alive (note that they'll play the Rams at home and @Packers later this year, so "faint" is generous).
Game 2: Cowboys vs. Redskins -- Would anyone be surprised if Jason Garrett were fired at halftime? Fear not, Jason. Your job is safe until December. Dallas probably will endure only its third losing season since 2005, though you probably wouldn't know it after today. It helps that Colt McCoy will take over for Alex Smith, whose Week 11 broken leg could keep him out well into the 2019 season. So just as with the early game, we'll see a nine-year journeyman take the helm for a road team that, on paper, is more talented. But unlike Chase Daniel, received two extended auditions earlier in his career -- once with Cleveland, and then later in Washington when Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins weren't getting it done, prompting the Redskins to see what they had in their third-stringer (apparently, not much).
I believe Dallas will have its way with Washington. The contest features two underrated defenses, with the Cowboys controlling the ground game and keeping most opposing quarterbacks largely in check. Adrian Peterson is a TD-dependent RB3 at best. Jordan Reed is a dart throw if you don't have a top-8 TE. Beyond that, I'm having trouble seeing which, if any, offensive Washingtonian is fantasy-worthy today.
The Cowboys' offense once again will (literally) run through Ezekiel Elliott, who's finally cracked the top-8 RBs with back-to-back dominating road performances, which notably included 13 catches. This is an area of Zeke's game I talked about over the summer, and it's starting to bear out. He's by far the best offensive player on this team and is on pace for a healthy 67 receptions. A pass-catching Zeke is freakin' dangerous (he had only 58 catches in his first 25 games). Expect a lot more as he makes a push for the top 5. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper and (surprisingly) Michael Gallup will get some fantasy love, but it might not come until the second half after Washington's otherwise strong pass defense has been sufficiently deflated and over-worked. So be patient.
Game 3: Saints vs. Falcons -- After this past weekend's unbelievable output against the defending Super Bowl champs, what's stopping New Orleans from doing it again, particularly vs. one of the NFL's worst defenses. Atlanta's giving up 27.6 points per game, including an average of 21 in their last four games against the Giants, Redskins, Browns, and Cowboys -- not exactly the offensive elite. Oh, and New Orleans hung 43 on them in September.
The biggest question today is how quickly the Falcons will abandon the running game. Tevin Coleman is a riskier-than-usual start as a result, though Atlanta's four primary receivers: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, and Austin Hooper are all startable as a WR1, WR3+, WR3+, and TE1, respectively. It's inconceivable that the Saints will do to Matt Ryan what they did a few days ago to Carson Wentz. It has nothing to do with talent gaps and everything to do with a defense playing on short rest. While it helps that the Saints' D was on the field for only about 23 minutes Sunday, I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Julio & company.
On the flip side, can anyone present a reasoned argument why New Orleans won't hit 30+ today? Or even 40+? There's nothing I can say about their fantasy prospects that isn't already universally obvious. This is a special team. And although I'm mostly pulling for a Chiefs-Rams Super Bowl, the thought of Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady would be a uniquely historical event (i.e. never bet against Brady/Belichick).
Good luck today with football and digestion.
Game 1: Lions vs. Bears -- Only twice in nearly 50 seasons have two teams played each other twice in the regular season within a 12-day span. Today will mark the third time as Detroit seeks to avenge its November 11 loss to Chicago. In that game, Mitch Trubisky was healthy and brilliant. Today (as of writing this at 5:30am) he's expected to sit with a sprained shoulder. Nine-year journeyman QB Chase Daniel -- who's thrown exactly one pass in the past three years while playing for three teams -- will get the nod. This could be entertaining or ugly.
1-1 in his career, Daniel has repeatedly shown well in preseason games, for whatever that's worth. And he's facing a team that's yielding a 116.1 QB rating to opposing quarterbacks -- second worst in the league. But count me concerned: This is Thanksgiving football, after all, and the 4-6 Lions will step up at home. Expect a more conservative game plan from the Bears featuring plenty Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen vs. Detroit's bad run defense (4.8 YPC), in the hopes that Chicago's D can once again man-handle Matthew Stafford and the Kerryon Johnson-less running game.
I actually like Detroit (3-point underdogs) taking this one, with a heavy dose of Kenny Golladay combining with enough LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick to wear down the Bears' elite D. It won't be a pretty game, and it won't satisfy many fantasy managers' hopes for a ton of scoring. But Detroit will keep their faint playoff hopes alive (note that they'll play the Rams at home and @Packers later this year, so "faint" is generous).
Game 2: Cowboys vs. Redskins -- Would anyone be surprised if Jason Garrett were fired at halftime? Fear not, Jason. Your job is safe until December. Dallas probably will endure only its third losing season since 2005, though you probably wouldn't know it after today. It helps that Colt McCoy will take over for Alex Smith, whose Week 11 broken leg could keep him out well into the 2019 season. So just as with the early game, we'll see a nine-year journeyman take the helm for a road team that, on paper, is more talented. But unlike Chase Daniel, received two extended auditions earlier in his career -- once with Cleveland, and then later in Washington when Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins weren't getting it done, prompting the Redskins to see what they had in their third-stringer (apparently, not much).
I believe Dallas will have its way with Washington. The contest features two underrated defenses, with the Cowboys controlling the ground game and keeping most opposing quarterbacks largely in check. Adrian Peterson is a TD-dependent RB3 at best. Jordan Reed is a dart throw if you don't have a top-8 TE. Beyond that, I'm having trouble seeing which, if any, offensive Washingtonian is fantasy-worthy today.
The Cowboys' offense once again will (literally) run through Ezekiel Elliott, who's finally cracked the top-8 RBs with back-to-back dominating road performances, which notably included 13 catches. This is an area of Zeke's game I talked about over the summer, and it's starting to bear out. He's by far the best offensive player on this team and is on pace for a healthy 67 receptions. A pass-catching Zeke is freakin' dangerous (he had only 58 catches in his first 25 games). Expect a lot more as he makes a push for the top 5. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper and (surprisingly) Michael Gallup will get some fantasy love, but it might not come until the second half after Washington's otherwise strong pass defense has been sufficiently deflated and over-worked. So be patient.
Game 3: Saints vs. Falcons -- After this past weekend's unbelievable output against the defending Super Bowl champs, what's stopping New Orleans from doing it again, particularly vs. one of the NFL's worst defenses. Atlanta's giving up 27.6 points per game, including an average of 21 in their last four games against the Giants, Redskins, Browns, and Cowboys -- not exactly the offensive elite. Oh, and New Orleans hung 43 on them in September.
The biggest question today is how quickly the Falcons will abandon the running game. Tevin Coleman is a riskier-than-usual start as a result, though Atlanta's four primary receivers: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, and Austin Hooper are all startable as a WR1, WR3+, WR3+, and TE1, respectively. It's inconceivable that the Saints will do to Matt Ryan what they did a few days ago to Carson Wentz. It has nothing to do with talent gaps and everything to do with a defense playing on short rest. While it helps that the Saints' D was on the field for only about 23 minutes Sunday, I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Julio & company.
On the flip side, can anyone present a reasoned argument why New Orleans won't hit 30+ today? Or even 40+? There's nothing I can say about their fantasy prospects that isn't already universally obvious. This is a special team. And although I'm mostly pulling for a Chiefs-Rams Super Bowl, the thought of Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady would be a uniquely historical event (i.e. never bet against Brady/Belichick).
Good luck today with football and digestion.