Why was Lamar Miller the expert consensus 25th ranked RB for Week 12? And why was Demaryius Thomas the 44th ranked WR? I was wondering the same things Saturday in my Bargains/Busts column. Their big numbers pushed me to 11-5 for the week and 96-101 for the season on "going against the universal grain" -- recommending guys almost no other experts are recommending.
A naysayer might point out Miller's fortunes hinged entirely on a 97-yard TD run. Well, 11 of Leonard Fournette's career 13 rushing TDs have come inside the 5-yard line. In fact, seven of his 15 TDs (rushing/receiving) have come inside the 1.
Everything is lucky or skillful, and often it's both. In the end, we're judged by results, not how the results transpire.
Speaking of results, another good game for Jonnu Smith, Week 12's #7 fantasy TE. Why he wasn't targeted in the game's final 54 minutes is anyone's guess. But that's four straight double-digit performances for a guy no one else (as far as I could find) was publicly pushing four weeks ago. Smith and Chris Herndon helped propel me to the playoffs in my very deep 14-team league. Quality production isn't always predictable. But that's why some of you come to FF4W -- to hear things no other site is talking about. If on balance we're bad at this, run away. If on balance we get more bold things right than wrong, we hope you'll stick around.
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Since Sunday, Melvin Gordon has been knocked out for a few weeks; Fournette has been suspended one game; Nick Mullens has inexplicably been named the Niners' Week 13 starter; Blake Bortles has been benched; and Andy Dalton, and Marvin Jones, Jack Doyle, and Jeff Heuerman have all been placed on Injured Reserve.
Today is not your typical "Free Agent Targets" column. Most of this stuff should be fairly obvious. If you're in a 2-QB league, two new options have dropped from the sky -- Jeff Driskell and Cody Kessler -- and C.J. Beathard is a smart speculative add. Meanwhile, Chase Daniel could earn another start if Mitch Trubisky remains shelved.
At RB, Justin Jackson (one of my favorite off-the-radar RBs this preseason) could be an immediate RB3; while Austin Ekeler is the assumed heir to Gordon's touches, I believe this tandem's usage will be driven by the notorious "hot hand" approach. The same goes for T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde, who will be leaned on heavily this week with Kessler under center.
At WR, DJ Moore remains unrostered in 41% of ESPN leagues. It should be 10% or lower. He has a fantastic set of matchups to close the season and is arguably Cam Newton's #1 receiver. And Bruce Ellington (six catches on seven targets Thursday) could be Matthew Stafford's #2 receiver for the rest of the season, putting him on the WR3/4 map.
At TE, as if Eric Ebron weren't dominant enough, Doyle's season-ending injury further cements Ebron has a must-start, high-upside tight end, though presumably Mo Alie-Cox will slide into the Doyle role. And Heuerman's replacement, Matt LaCosse, deserves desperation-driven attention if you don't have a top-14 TE.
A naysayer might point out Miller's fortunes hinged entirely on a 97-yard TD run. Well, 11 of Leonard Fournette's career 13 rushing TDs have come inside the 5-yard line. In fact, seven of his 15 TDs (rushing/receiving) have come inside the 1.
Everything is lucky or skillful, and often it's both. In the end, we're judged by results, not how the results transpire.
Speaking of results, another good game for Jonnu Smith, Week 12's #7 fantasy TE. Why he wasn't targeted in the game's final 54 minutes is anyone's guess. But that's four straight double-digit performances for a guy no one else (as far as I could find) was publicly pushing four weeks ago. Smith and Chris Herndon helped propel me to the playoffs in my very deep 14-team league. Quality production isn't always predictable. But that's why some of you come to FF4W -- to hear things no other site is talking about. If on balance we're bad at this, run away. If on balance we get more bold things right than wrong, we hope you'll stick around.
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Since Sunday, Melvin Gordon has been knocked out for a few weeks; Fournette has been suspended one game; Nick Mullens has inexplicably been named the Niners' Week 13 starter; Blake Bortles has been benched; and Andy Dalton, and Marvin Jones, Jack Doyle, and Jeff Heuerman have all been placed on Injured Reserve.
Today is not your typical "Free Agent Targets" column. Most of this stuff should be fairly obvious. If you're in a 2-QB league, two new options have dropped from the sky -- Jeff Driskell and Cody Kessler -- and C.J. Beathard is a smart speculative add. Meanwhile, Chase Daniel could earn another start if Mitch Trubisky remains shelved.
At RB, Justin Jackson (one of my favorite off-the-radar RBs this preseason) could be an immediate RB3; while Austin Ekeler is the assumed heir to Gordon's touches, I believe this tandem's usage will be driven by the notorious "hot hand" approach. The same goes for T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde, who will be leaned on heavily this week with Kessler under center.
At WR, DJ Moore remains unrostered in 41% of ESPN leagues. It should be 10% or lower. He has a fantastic set of matchups to close the season and is arguably Cam Newton's #1 receiver. And Bruce Ellington (six catches on seven targets Thursday) could be Matthew Stafford's #2 receiver for the rest of the season, putting him on the WR3/4 map.
At TE, as if Eric Ebron weren't dominant enough, Doyle's season-ending injury further cements Ebron has a must-start, high-upside tight end, though presumably Mo Alie-Cox will slide into the Doyle role. And Heuerman's replacement, Matt LaCosse, deserves desperation-driven attention if you don't have a top-14 TE.