When the 2018 NFL calendar was released in April, tonight's contest had all the makings of a heavyweight battle between two playoff contenders. Green Bay surely would have the edge on overall offensive talent, while Seattle would benefit from home-field advantage and, perhaps, the remnants of a once-mighty defense.
Instead, we see two proud franchises without a winning record, with enormous pressure to end the year 6-1 to all-but-clinch a postseason berth. In other words, whoever loses tonight probably will need to win out to play beyond Week 17.
At QB, Aaron Rodgers has underperformed from a fantasy perspective. Remember, he was the near-universal #1 fantasy QB this preseason: 88% of 135 experts placed him at the top, and the remaining 12% had him in the top 3. To my knowledge, his #4 ranking on my board was the lowest anyone placed Rodgers. And I took some flack for it on this page. There's pressure in the fantasy world not to look stupid. It's why, I believe, most experts don't deviate too far from the norm. And that's a disservice to managers everywhere seeking hard-nosed insights rather than go-with-the-flow forecasting.
But I digress. While Davante Adams has dominated, Jimmy Graham's production has been somewhat erratic and a carousel of talented wideouts has prevented any of them to break out. The current #2, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, is surely worth streaming in some leagues as a WR3/4. But this passing attack has lost a step compared to past seasons. To be clear, Rodgers is still Rodgers. But the same concerns I expressed this summer remain concerns, and they're exacerbated by the fact that Green Bay has the toughest NFL schedule based on 2017 win-loss records. A Packers passing game that dominated in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2016 is now merely "very good." And that's not good enough for those who drafted Rodgers early.
In the backfield, Aaron Jones has broken through beyond my high early-season expectations. Many of you know I've been pushing him over Jamaal Williams since mid-September, once Williams looked only middling while Jones was suspended the first two games. In my Premier Fantasy League I'm fortunate to have Jones, Todd Gurley, James Conner, and Tevin Coleman. I'm honestly debating whether to bench Jones. "Are you an idiot" some/most of you are wondering. Jones is the consensus 13th ranked Week 11 RB. He's facing a Seattle D yielding 5.0 yards per carry. Well, the Seahawks have faced some of the league's top RBs so far: Gurley (twice), Ezekiel Elliott, and Melvin Gordon. Three out of four times, these RBs pummeled them. They've kept most of the next tiers of RBs (Jordan Howard, David Johnson, Kerryon Johnson, etc.) mostly in check. I think they'll limit Jones to RB2/3 production rather than top-14 production.
Meanwhile, as many of you know, Russell Wilson has been one of my favorite buy-low QBs for most of the season. After a brutally slow start, he's strung together four 3-TD games in his past five outings. His remaining fantasy schedule consists of the Packers, Panthers, Niners (twice), Vikings, and Chiefs. Five of his final seven games are at home. He's far better than his season-long numbers suggest, period. And that will continue to bear out. Despite what the 100+ experts are saying, he'll be better than Rodgers tonight,
The receiving corps has been arguably the worst-performing of Wilson's career. His best wideout, Tyler Lockett, is posting WR3 numbers. Doug Baldwin has been one of fantasy's biggest disappointments (though his preseason injury was a warning sign). Tonight is a night to start both of them as WR3+ options. Baldwin in particular is simply too talented -- and reportedly too healthy -- to remain unstartable for long.
As for the crazy Seattle backfield, this has all the makings of a hot-hand situation. Chris Carson has been named the starter. But that's meaningless. In a must-win contest, coaches Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer will go with whoever matches up best against the Green Bay line. If Carson struggles on his first two carries, look for Mike Davis or Rashaad Penny to step in. And so on. I don't see a rotation. I see one guy rising to the top in the first half and getting the brunt of the work in the second. Where does that leave fantasy managers? If you're the ultimate gambler, or if you're staring at a choice between a Seattle RB and Doug Martin, go with the Seattle RB. I'd rather have a 33% chance at an RB2 than, well, Doug Martin.
Instead, we see two proud franchises without a winning record, with enormous pressure to end the year 6-1 to all-but-clinch a postseason berth. In other words, whoever loses tonight probably will need to win out to play beyond Week 17.
At QB, Aaron Rodgers has underperformed from a fantasy perspective. Remember, he was the near-universal #1 fantasy QB this preseason: 88% of 135 experts placed him at the top, and the remaining 12% had him in the top 3. To my knowledge, his #4 ranking on my board was the lowest anyone placed Rodgers. And I took some flack for it on this page. There's pressure in the fantasy world not to look stupid. It's why, I believe, most experts don't deviate too far from the norm. And that's a disservice to managers everywhere seeking hard-nosed insights rather than go-with-the-flow forecasting.
But I digress. While Davante Adams has dominated, Jimmy Graham's production has been somewhat erratic and a carousel of talented wideouts has prevented any of them to break out. The current #2, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, is surely worth streaming in some leagues as a WR3/4. But this passing attack has lost a step compared to past seasons. To be clear, Rodgers is still Rodgers. But the same concerns I expressed this summer remain concerns, and they're exacerbated by the fact that Green Bay has the toughest NFL schedule based on 2017 win-loss records. A Packers passing game that dominated in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2016 is now merely "very good." And that's not good enough for those who drafted Rodgers early.
In the backfield, Aaron Jones has broken through beyond my high early-season expectations. Many of you know I've been pushing him over Jamaal Williams since mid-September, once Williams looked only middling while Jones was suspended the first two games. In my Premier Fantasy League I'm fortunate to have Jones, Todd Gurley, James Conner, and Tevin Coleman. I'm honestly debating whether to bench Jones. "Are you an idiot" some/most of you are wondering. Jones is the consensus 13th ranked Week 11 RB. He's facing a Seattle D yielding 5.0 yards per carry. Well, the Seahawks have faced some of the league's top RBs so far: Gurley (twice), Ezekiel Elliott, and Melvin Gordon. Three out of four times, these RBs pummeled them. They've kept most of the next tiers of RBs (Jordan Howard, David Johnson, Kerryon Johnson, etc.) mostly in check. I think they'll limit Jones to RB2/3 production rather than top-14 production.
Meanwhile, as many of you know, Russell Wilson has been one of my favorite buy-low QBs for most of the season. After a brutally slow start, he's strung together four 3-TD games in his past five outings. His remaining fantasy schedule consists of the Packers, Panthers, Niners (twice), Vikings, and Chiefs. Five of his final seven games are at home. He's far better than his season-long numbers suggest, period. And that will continue to bear out. Despite what the 100+ experts are saying, he'll be better than Rodgers tonight,
The receiving corps has been arguably the worst-performing of Wilson's career. His best wideout, Tyler Lockett, is posting WR3 numbers. Doug Baldwin has been one of fantasy's biggest disappointments (though his preseason injury was a warning sign). Tonight is a night to start both of them as WR3+ options. Baldwin in particular is simply too talented -- and reportedly too healthy -- to remain unstartable for long.
As for the crazy Seattle backfield, this has all the makings of a hot-hand situation. Chris Carson has been named the starter. But that's meaningless. In a must-win contest, coaches Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer will go with whoever matches up best against the Green Bay line. If Carson struggles on his first two carries, look for Mike Davis or Rashaad Penny to step in. And so on. I don't see a rotation. I see one guy rising to the top in the first half and getting the brunt of the work in the second. Where does that leave fantasy managers? If you're the ultimate gambler, or if you're staring at a choice between a Seattle RB and Doug Martin, go with the Seattle RB. I'd rather have a 33% chance at an RB2 than, well, Doug Martin.