It didn't take long for Nick Mullens to earn his Twitter Verified Account symbol. On the one hand, what an incredible debut for the undrafted free agent who primary Twitter image is a wedding photo. Surely everyone was rooting for this guy last night -- including, I believe, Jon Gruden.
At the risk of crapping on the Mullens Parade, I've got to call this like I see it. While the rookie should be celebrated for playing terrific football, the opposing Oakland defense played at a college level. Someone on this board can offer whether he was ever hurried (I don't recall), but Oakland's made just about every opposing QB looks great (109.4 opposing QB rating entering Thursday) while averaging less than a sack per game. By my count Mullens made three brilliant throws in traffic. The rest were aided by Raider defenders giving up way too much space in coverage -- or blowing coverage altogether.
If he starts Week 10, Mullens will face a Giants pass rush that's second-worst in the league . . . just ahead of Oakland. So in the short term he's a name to watch. But let's put last night's near-perfect numbers in perspective.
The other big news for San Francisco was Raheem Mostert breaking his arm. If Matt Breida can't go next week, expect this team to sign another back. On a night when most Niners played above expectations, Alfred Morris somehow played below: 13 yards on seven carries, continuing his downward career trend.
For Oakland, Derek Carr doesn't deserve most of the blame. Yes, some of his drives stalled in the red zone. But his receivers weren't doing him any favors. Carr finished the evening 16-of-21 for 171 yards (an impressive 8.1 yards per throw). He also absorbed seven sacks and is now on pace for 48 (his career high is 31). He's also on pace to exceed 4,000 yards for the first time. I'm convinced that if Carr played in, say, Miami or for the Giants, he could flourish. Instead his career is in limbo as he absorbs some of the blame for anchoring the NFL's worst team.
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A quick note on DSTs. Did some research to see how defensive / special teams TDs were distributed last year. There were 100 overall, accounting for 17% of all DST fantasy points. 57 came in their teams' first eight games. Some DSTs that looked good in the first half of the season -- like the Texans -- faded in the second half in large part because they no longer scored DST TDs.
Through eight weeks this year there have been 39 DST scores, accounting for 18% of all fantasy scoring -- very similar to last year's percentage, though a clear drop-off in totals. This drop-off makes sense, as we're seeing better QB play producing more offensive scoring. As previously discussed, this makes DSTs even less valuable than in past years. But one thing I'll be examining as the season goes on is whether there's once again a TD drop-off in the second half of the season. The Jets are posting DST1 numbers largely because of their three scores. If they can't sustain that in the second half, will they become entirely irrelevant? Conversely, the DST1 Ravens have no DST scores. The law of averages suggest they're a buy-low DST -- that they'll rack up at least a couple before the year's over.
And this is a mistake some managers make -- eyeing high-scoring DSTs without seeing where the scoring's coming from, who they've played, and who's left on the schedule. Basically, a team with a great pass rush and strong secondary should be able to sustain decent sack and turnover totals. But DST touchdowns are less predictable, and therefore shouldn't be factored heavily into future scoring. And a top-8 DST whose remaining schedule includes more road games than home games -- including against better offenses than they've faced so far -- is likely a riskier pickup than a top 18-20 DST with more upcoming home games and a softer opposing schedule.
For example, Arizona has the 10th highest scoring fantasy DST. But half their DST points have come in two contests against the 49ers, and their remaining schedule includes @Chiefs, @Chargers, @Packers, @Falcons, @Seahawks, and the Rams. Aside from a streamable Week 11 matchup vs. Oakland, this DST will be unstartable the rest of the way. Shockingly, they're rostered in 27% of ESPN leagues. It should be 5%.
On the flip side, the Chargers are a bottom-10 DST, yet they've generating none of their points through TDs. Instead, they've brutalized offenses with sacks and forced turnovers. Now, their schedule has been very favorable so far, so take that into account. But they've also been without Joey Bosa, and their remaining docket includes a road game in Oakland as well as home contests against Denver, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. All five of those are potential must-start options for the Chargers DST, which surely could pick up at least a couple DST scores along the way, making them a DST1 the second half of the season.
At the risk of crapping on the Mullens Parade, I've got to call this like I see it. While the rookie should be celebrated for playing terrific football, the opposing Oakland defense played at a college level. Someone on this board can offer whether he was ever hurried (I don't recall), but Oakland's made just about every opposing QB looks great (109.4 opposing QB rating entering Thursday) while averaging less than a sack per game. By my count Mullens made three brilliant throws in traffic. The rest were aided by Raider defenders giving up way too much space in coverage -- or blowing coverage altogether.
If he starts Week 10, Mullens will face a Giants pass rush that's second-worst in the league . . . just ahead of Oakland. So in the short term he's a name to watch. But let's put last night's near-perfect numbers in perspective.
The other big news for San Francisco was Raheem Mostert breaking his arm. If Matt Breida can't go next week, expect this team to sign another back. On a night when most Niners played above expectations, Alfred Morris somehow played below: 13 yards on seven carries, continuing his downward career trend.
For Oakland, Derek Carr doesn't deserve most of the blame. Yes, some of his drives stalled in the red zone. But his receivers weren't doing him any favors. Carr finished the evening 16-of-21 for 171 yards (an impressive 8.1 yards per throw). He also absorbed seven sacks and is now on pace for 48 (his career high is 31). He's also on pace to exceed 4,000 yards for the first time. I'm convinced that if Carr played in, say, Miami or for the Giants, he could flourish. Instead his career is in limbo as he absorbs some of the blame for anchoring the NFL's worst team.
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A quick note on DSTs. Did some research to see how defensive / special teams TDs were distributed last year. There were 100 overall, accounting for 17% of all DST fantasy points. 57 came in their teams' first eight games. Some DSTs that looked good in the first half of the season -- like the Texans -- faded in the second half in large part because they no longer scored DST TDs.
Through eight weeks this year there have been 39 DST scores, accounting for 18% of all fantasy scoring -- very similar to last year's percentage, though a clear drop-off in totals. This drop-off makes sense, as we're seeing better QB play producing more offensive scoring. As previously discussed, this makes DSTs even less valuable than in past years. But one thing I'll be examining as the season goes on is whether there's once again a TD drop-off in the second half of the season. The Jets are posting DST1 numbers largely because of their three scores. If they can't sustain that in the second half, will they become entirely irrelevant? Conversely, the DST1 Ravens have no DST scores. The law of averages suggest they're a buy-low DST -- that they'll rack up at least a couple before the year's over.
And this is a mistake some managers make -- eyeing high-scoring DSTs without seeing where the scoring's coming from, who they've played, and who's left on the schedule. Basically, a team with a great pass rush and strong secondary should be able to sustain decent sack and turnover totals. But DST touchdowns are less predictable, and therefore shouldn't be factored heavily into future scoring. And a top-8 DST whose remaining schedule includes more road games than home games -- including against better offenses than they've faced so far -- is likely a riskier pickup than a top 18-20 DST with more upcoming home games and a softer opposing schedule.
For example, Arizona has the 10th highest scoring fantasy DST. But half their DST points have come in two contests against the 49ers, and their remaining schedule includes @Chiefs, @Chargers, @Packers, @Falcons, @Seahawks, and the Rams. Aside from a streamable Week 11 matchup vs. Oakland, this DST will be unstartable the rest of the way. Shockingly, they're rostered in 27% of ESPN leagues. It should be 5%.
On the flip side, the Chargers are a bottom-10 DST, yet they've generating none of their points through TDs. Instead, they've brutalized offenses with sacks and forced turnovers. Now, their schedule has been very favorable so far, so take that into account. But they've also been without Joey Bosa, and their remaining docket includes a road game in Oakland as well as home contests against Denver, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. All five of those are potential must-start options for the Chargers DST, which surely could pick up at least a couple DST scores along the way, making them a DST1 the second half of the season.