Now that each team's had their bye, let's take a couple minutes to compare preseason consensus rankings with actual scoring. A key part of my book "Fantasy Football for Winners" was how roughly half the time, players we think will be top-10 scorers actually finish outside the top 10. The same goes for top 11-20 players finishing outside the top 20. The seemingly poor percentages are due to everything from injuries to suspensions to holdouts to depth chart demotions to poor teammate performances -- like Larry Fitzgerald and LeSean McCoy plummeting from 2017 to 2018 due to huge offensive downgrades.
Looking at ADPs, only five of the preseason top-10 QBs are currently sitting in the top 10. In fact, only three of them -- Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck -- are beating ADP expectations. Instead, Patrick Mahomes (QB-16 ADP) is #1, Matt Ryan (QB-13) is #3, Jared Goff (QB-15) is #5, and Mitch Trubisky (QB-24) is #10. And six of the top 11-20 ADP QBs are in the top 20. Meanwhile, a composite of 100+ experts weren't any better, with only five of their consensus preseason top-10 QBs currently residing in the top 10, and five of their top 11-20 QBs in the top 20.
At RB, seven of the top-10 players based on ADP are currently top-10 RB scorers. This is on par with the experts' success rate. But for the 10 RBs ranked 11-20 in ADP, only three are in the top 20 thru Week 12, and only two 11-20 expert-ranked RBs are in the top 20.
At WR, ADP and experts remarkably correctly picked eight of the current top-10 scorers, due in large part to injury-free seasons for these uber talents. But picking the top 11-20 was tougher: ADP is currently correct on five wideouts (with five of the top 11-20 posting top-20 numbers), while experts correctly picked three wideouts.
Finally, only four of the top-10 TE ADPs are presently top-10 scorers, while five in the 11-20 tier are top-20 scorers. Experts so far have only three of their top-10 TEs correctly picked, and four of their top 11-20.
Overall, ADP has a 60% accuracy rate for top-10 positional players and 48% for top 11-20. Experts are sitting at 58% and 35%, respectively. Their combined success rate for all four offensive positions is 40-for-80 . . . or 50%.
It's an incredible coincidence. What we think will happen -- the seemingly obvious predictions of who will be top-10 or top-20 positional performers -- are correct about 50% of the time year after year after year. It's like Chaos Theory applied to fantasy football, where no matter how much we know every summer, the often randomness of injuries, demotions, etc. level the playing field. We could follow the advice of ADP or experts, or yes, even this page (we don't claim to be better than everyone else). In the end, it comes down to whether our guys stay healthy, remain high-usage starters, and continue to have teammates who can help keep the offense moving.
This is why I find the obvious boring, because the obvious is often a 50-50 proposition. What's more interesting -- and what tends to be a more impactful difference-maker -- is going against the grain with certain guys, both during the summer and throughout the season. If I warned enough people not to draft Aaron Rodgers (the nearly 100% universal preseason #1 QB) as a top-3 quarterback, then you probably found better value elsewhere. If my preseason hyping of Austin Hooper or Eric Ebron led some of you to grab one of them with your final pick, you earned a competitive advantage over nearly all your teammates.
FF4W will never be amazing at this. At best, we'll be good at it, just like all of you. The difference lies beyond the 50-50 calls, deep within the trenches where long-forgotten players are positioned for breakout performances, and up above where the seemingly unstoppable fantasy talents are good bets for regression.
Looking at ADPs, only five of the preseason top-10 QBs are currently sitting in the top 10. In fact, only three of them -- Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck -- are beating ADP expectations. Instead, Patrick Mahomes (QB-16 ADP) is #1, Matt Ryan (QB-13) is #3, Jared Goff (QB-15) is #5, and Mitch Trubisky (QB-24) is #10. And six of the top 11-20 ADP QBs are in the top 20. Meanwhile, a composite of 100+ experts weren't any better, with only five of their consensus preseason top-10 QBs currently residing in the top 10, and five of their top 11-20 QBs in the top 20.
At RB, seven of the top-10 players based on ADP are currently top-10 RB scorers. This is on par with the experts' success rate. But for the 10 RBs ranked 11-20 in ADP, only three are in the top 20 thru Week 12, and only two 11-20 expert-ranked RBs are in the top 20.
At WR, ADP and experts remarkably correctly picked eight of the current top-10 scorers, due in large part to injury-free seasons for these uber talents. But picking the top 11-20 was tougher: ADP is currently correct on five wideouts (with five of the top 11-20 posting top-20 numbers), while experts correctly picked three wideouts.
Finally, only four of the top-10 TE ADPs are presently top-10 scorers, while five in the 11-20 tier are top-20 scorers. Experts so far have only three of their top-10 TEs correctly picked, and four of their top 11-20.
Overall, ADP has a 60% accuracy rate for top-10 positional players and 48% for top 11-20. Experts are sitting at 58% and 35%, respectively. Their combined success rate for all four offensive positions is 40-for-80 . . . or 50%.
It's an incredible coincidence. What we think will happen -- the seemingly obvious predictions of who will be top-10 or top-20 positional performers -- are correct about 50% of the time year after year after year. It's like Chaos Theory applied to fantasy football, where no matter how much we know every summer, the often randomness of injuries, demotions, etc. level the playing field. We could follow the advice of ADP or experts, or yes, even this page (we don't claim to be better than everyone else). In the end, it comes down to whether our guys stay healthy, remain high-usage starters, and continue to have teammates who can help keep the offense moving.
This is why I find the obvious boring, because the obvious is often a 50-50 proposition. What's more interesting -- and what tends to be a more impactful difference-maker -- is going against the grain with certain guys, both during the summer and throughout the season. If I warned enough people not to draft Aaron Rodgers (the nearly 100% universal preseason #1 QB) as a top-3 quarterback, then you probably found better value elsewhere. If my preseason hyping of Austin Hooper or Eric Ebron led some of you to grab one of them with your final pick, you earned a competitive advantage over nearly all your teammates.
FF4W will never be amazing at this. At best, we'll be good at it, just like all of you. The difference lies beyond the 50-50 calls, deep within the trenches where long-forgotten players are positioned for breakout performances, and up above where the seemingly unstoppable fantasy talents are good bets for regression.