I was 7-6 in last week's bargains-and-busts column, bringing my season total to 52-59. These predictions are deep outliers compared to expert consensus. For example, I'm not guessing a WR2 will post WR2 numbers; I'm betting a WR4 will post WR2 numbers. And I'll never count guys who are undervalued for obvious reasons. For example, last week I didn't mention Nick Chubb despite his RB-50+ Week 7 ranking. Most experts ranked Chubb as unstartable because, at that time, Carlos Hyde was still a Brown. Most experts hadn't updated their rankings after his mid-week trade, which catapulted Chubb to must-roster status. So it would have been neither fair nor insightful for me to say that Chubb was an undervalued RB6.
With that in mind, here are my unconventional Week 8 predictions:
Once again, Mitch Trubisky (consensus 11th ranked Week 8 QB) is underrated. It's probably the fifth time I've hyped him in the past 12 days, and he'll continue to get plenty of love until his universal value mirrors his actual value. I also think experts are putting too much faith in Seattle's pass D when giving Matthew Stafford a consensus 15th ranking this week. The Seahawks' recent "impressive" defensive performances have been against inept passing attacks like Oakland, Arizona, and Dallas. Jared Goff threw for 321 despite losing two of his top three receivers in the first half; in fact, he threw for 237 in the first half. Stafford will exceed expectations.
On the flip side, I'm betting against Aaron Rodgers (#2) on the road against the Rams. Few QBs have a higher floor. But I believe this week Rodgers will be merely "good," not great.
At RB, in the belief Kansas City will handle Denver fairly comfortably, I like Spencer Ware (#55) as a great desperation flex play. He dominated last week in relief on 11 touches and faces a brutally bad Denver D giving up 5.3 yards per carry. And while Doug Martin's (#31) ceiling is similarly capped, his #31 ranking suggests about 30 rushing yards and a score. I like him a little more than that, putting him firmly in the flex conversation.
On the flip side, while Phillip Lindsay (#10) continues to prove me wrong, his RB1 ranking is too ambitious. Yes, Royce Freeman is sitting. But Kansas City has a strong advantage in this one, and I don't see Lindsay getting enough run in the second half to be one of the week's top RB performers. Meanwhile, Jalen Richard (#18) is risky because his usage could be anywhere from six to 12 touches -- way too unpredictable for a supposed RB2.
At WR, with or without a healthy Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller is a bargain at his #57 ranking. I like his seven targets last week, as well as his talent in general. I'm also once again higher than most experts on Kelvin Benjamin (#55) with former teammate Derek Anderson at QB. And almost no one's giving Martavis Bryant (#52) despite looking at starters' snaps after Amari Cooper was traded Monday. Tre'Quan Smith (#41) offers terrific upside despite a relatively tough matchup. Finally, a new offensive coordinator in Arizona will give the fading Larry Fitzgerald (#37) a new life in fantasy circles -- at least for one week.
On the flip side, I'll continue to tempt fate and challenge the assumption that John Brown (#20) is a WR2 against Carolina. And how good is Davante Adams (#6)? Really, really good. Like, 15-TDs-in-his-past-17-games good. Of course, the Packers are playing only their second game of the season at virtual full strength, with a three-man backfield complementing a potentially five-man receiving corps. Adams is looking at about 7-8 targets at most, meaning he's no better than a WR2/3 unless he scores. And I'm betting he won't find the end zone against the Rams.
At TE, I'd take a flyer on Chris Herndon (#21) and a rebounding Kyle Rudolph (#14). Also, Rob Gronkowski (#9) should be ranked higher. On the flip side, Eric Ebron is rated too ambitiously as the consensus #4 Week 8 TE.
With that in mind, here are my unconventional Week 8 predictions:
Once again, Mitch Trubisky (consensus 11th ranked Week 8 QB) is underrated. It's probably the fifth time I've hyped him in the past 12 days, and he'll continue to get plenty of love until his universal value mirrors his actual value. I also think experts are putting too much faith in Seattle's pass D when giving Matthew Stafford a consensus 15th ranking this week. The Seahawks' recent "impressive" defensive performances have been against inept passing attacks like Oakland, Arizona, and Dallas. Jared Goff threw for 321 despite losing two of his top three receivers in the first half; in fact, he threw for 237 in the first half. Stafford will exceed expectations.
On the flip side, I'm betting against Aaron Rodgers (#2) on the road against the Rams. Few QBs have a higher floor. But I believe this week Rodgers will be merely "good," not great.
At RB, in the belief Kansas City will handle Denver fairly comfortably, I like Spencer Ware (#55) as a great desperation flex play. He dominated last week in relief on 11 touches and faces a brutally bad Denver D giving up 5.3 yards per carry. And while Doug Martin's (#31) ceiling is similarly capped, his #31 ranking suggests about 30 rushing yards and a score. I like him a little more than that, putting him firmly in the flex conversation.
On the flip side, while Phillip Lindsay (#10) continues to prove me wrong, his RB1 ranking is too ambitious. Yes, Royce Freeman is sitting. But Kansas City has a strong advantage in this one, and I don't see Lindsay getting enough run in the second half to be one of the week's top RB performers. Meanwhile, Jalen Richard (#18) is risky because his usage could be anywhere from six to 12 touches -- way too unpredictable for a supposed RB2.
At WR, with or without a healthy Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller is a bargain at his #57 ranking. I like his seven targets last week, as well as his talent in general. I'm also once again higher than most experts on Kelvin Benjamin (#55) with former teammate Derek Anderson at QB. And almost no one's giving Martavis Bryant (#52) despite looking at starters' snaps after Amari Cooper was traded Monday. Tre'Quan Smith (#41) offers terrific upside despite a relatively tough matchup. Finally, a new offensive coordinator in Arizona will give the fading Larry Fitzgerald (#37) a new life in fantasy circles -- at least for one week.
On the flip side, I'll continue to tempt fate and challenge the assumption that John Brown (#20) is a WR2 against Carolina. And how good is Davante Adams (#6)? Really, really good. Like, 15-TDs-in-his-past-17-games good. Of course, the Packers are playing only their second game of the season at virtual full strength, with a three-man backfield complementing a potentially five-man receiving corps. Adams is looking at about 7-8 targets at most, meaning he's no better than a WR2/3 unless he scores. And I'm betting he won't find the end zone against the Rams.
At TE, I'd take a flyer on Chris Herndon (#21) and a rebounding Kyle Rudolph (#14). Also, Rob Gronkowski (#9) should be ranked higher. On the flip side, Eric Ebron is rated too ambitiously as the consensus #4 Week 8 TE.