As with most Thursday night games, last night's offered some surprises and some "yeah, that makes sense" moments. Eli Manning's fantasy (and on-the-field) irrelevance is the biggest story this morning. This blog warned about him in August, highlighting statistics that reinforced what could be easily ascertained on the field. I reiterated those concerns yesterday. You could see how frustrated Odell Beckham, Jr. was, and will continue to be until the Giants get a new quarterback next year. OBJ left the field before halftime -- a petulant protest to be sure, but also a clear signal to management that it's time to move on from a QB who can no longer throw downfield.
If Eli were a fourth-year journeyman named Burt Monroe, he would have been pulled a dozen or more times in the past two seasons. But the Giants seem to want the future Hall-of-Famer to walk away on his terms. His brother did it in the most unlikely fashion, operating as the NFL's worst starting QB while "leading" his team to the Super Bowl. Sure Tom Brady and Drew Brees will know when to call it quits. But Eli trudges on, hoping quick hits to receivers and Saquon Barkely's other-worldly talent will be enough to muster a respectable 8-8 season.
Obviously, it won't. I count at least five more fairly predictable losses, meaning at best Eli's career will end with a 6-10 record -- and at worst, a 2-14 record that could see Eli headed into forced retirement by early December.
My preseason warnings about OBJ are well documented: https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/1798913420156629
. If this team had a mid-range QB, OBJ would be an elite receiver. But they don't. So he isn't. The league's highest-paid receiver remains a strong dynasty option and is still likely to end the season as the WR2 I anticipated this summer. He's a must-start option simply because his floor is high; he's racking up targets, receptions, and yards at near-elite levels. But hopefully it's now clearer why a quarterback upgrade is the only way he'll return to WR1 status.
Elsewhere, I guessed wrong on Wendell Smallwood. Bought into a couple of things: Doug Pederson publicly stating Corey Clement would be on a "pitch count," as well as the reality of Clement returning from an injury. Oh, and Smallwood's looked terrific in a complementary role the past few weeks. If I could do it over again with similar conditions in place, I'd make the same call. Smallwood comfortably out-touched Clement; Clement got to punch it in at the 1. These two are closer in value than their Week 6 fantasy production suggests, though I have to admit a healthy Clement now has the edge.
I was also surprised that Carson Wentz posted comfortable QB1 numbers. With a more depleted defense, the Giants gave up only four passing TDs while corralling three interceptions in their previous three games -- against Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Drew Brees. And Dak Prescott and Blake Bortles threw only one TD apiece. So credit Wentz for having his best game of the year against an underrated pass D.
Meanwhile, Alshon Jeffery was startable as expected, while Zach Ertz kept the good times going with what will probably end up being a top 4-6 TE performance for the week. I'm continuing to view him as a player who can't sustain nearly unprecedented TE1 production, but clearly I'm an outlier on this, and I might well be wrong.
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A quick note on waivers. Sometimes managers are forced to drop a decent bye-week player because they don't have enough bench flexibility to keep him. Take Will Lutz for example. Last year's sixth highest scoring fantasy kicker is sitting at #2 entering his Week 6 bye. One of my opponents dropped him. I spent $3 FAAB to pick him up and stash him on my bench. Starting next week I'll have (I hope) a top-5 kicker for the rest of the season.
It's one of many reasons why our bench should be flexible enough to grab guys with better long-term value than short-term value.
If Eli were a fourth-year journeyman named Burt Monroe, he would have been pulled a dozen or more times in the past two seasons. But the Giants seem to want the future Hall-of-Famer to walk away on his terms. His brother did it in the most unlikely fashion, operating as the NFL's worst starting QB while "leading" his team to the Super Bowl. Sure Tom Brady and Drew Brees will know when to call it quits. But Eli trudges on, hoping quick hits to receivers and Saquon Barkely's other-worldly talent will be enough to muster a respectable 8-8 season.
Obviously, it won't. I count at least five more fairly predictable losses, meaning at best Eli's career will end with a 6-10 record -- and at worst, a 2-14 record that could see Eli headed into forced retirement by early December.
My preseason warnings about OBJ are well documented: https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/1798913420156629
. If this team had a mid-range QB, OBJ would be an elite receiver. But they don't. So he isn't. The league's highest-paid receiver remains a strong dynasty option and is still likely to end the season as the WR2 I anticipated this summer. He's a must-start option simply because his floor is high; he's racking up targets, receptions, and yards at near-elite levels. But hopefully it's now clearer why a quarterback upgrade is the only way he'll return to WR1 status.
Elsewhere, I guessed wrong on Wendell Smallwood. Bought into a couple of things: Doug Pederson publicly stating Corey Clement would be on a "pitch count," as well as the reality of Clement returning from an injury. Oh, and Smallwood's looked terrific in a complementary role the past few weeks. If I could do it over again with similar conditions in place, I'd make the same call. Smallwood comfortably out-touched Clement; Clement got to punch it in at the 1. These two are closer in value than their Week 6 fantasy production suggests, though I have to admit a healthy Clement now has the edge.
I was also surprised that Carson Wentz posted comfortable QB1 numbers. With a more depleted defense, the Giants gave up only four passing TDs while corralling three interceptions in their previous three games -- against Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Drew Brees. And Dak Prescott and Blake Bortles threw only one TD apiece. So credit Wentz for having his best game of the year against an underrated pass D.
Meanwhile, Alshon Jeffery was startable as expected, while Zach Ertz kept the good times going with what will probably end up being a top 4-6 TE performance for the week. I'm continuing to view him as a player who can't sustain nearly unprecedented TE1 production, but clearly I'm an outlier on this, and I might well be wrong.
--
A quick note on waivers. Sometimes managers are forced to drop a decent bye-week player because they don't have enough bench flexibility to keep him. Take Will Lutz for example. Last year's sixth highest scoring fantasy kicker is sitting at #2 entering his Week 6 bye. One of my opponents dropped him. I spent $3 FAAB to pick him up and stash him on my bench. Starting next week I'll have (I hope) a top-5 kicker for the rest of the season.
It's one of many reasons why our bench should be flexible enough to grab guys with better long-term value than short-term value.