Week 6 ends with another thriller, as Mason Crosby redeems himself after missing five kicks last weekend, converting 7-of-7 including the game-winner as time expired. This week nine kickers had 13+ points, with three posting 21+. That was monumentally better than DSTs (five with 13+ / one with 21+), and even somewhat better than TEs (10 with 13+ / one with 21+). In fact, five kickers now have 60+ points on the season, compared to zero for DSTs. With more teams scoring more points than in past years, it makes sense that kickers have now clearly jumped past DSTs as the more valuable fantasy commodity.
If you started Alfred Morris last night, my condolences. That said, I've been screaming through my computer ever since the Niners signed him: "Stay away!" "Sell high!" "Et cetera!" Who cares that he's played with Kyle Shanahan and "understands his system"? He's simply not very good anymore. Raheem Mostert -- the 26-year-old with 13 career carries entering MNF -- looked far better than Morris has all season. The Niners' coaches saw it, too. This will remain a two-man backfield for the foreseeable future, with Mostert and Matt Breida dominated touches and Morris sticking to the sidelines. Breida remains very valuable as the more trusted 1A.
I've also been screaming about the mostly forgotten Marquise Goodwin. As you'll see below, he was available in 56% of ESPN leagues entering the weekend. He was one of my 16 Week 6 unconventional predictions (see Saturday's post), and he exceeded expectations. Outside of George Kittle, Goodwin is clear-and-away the most talented receiver in one of the league's least-talented groups. Expect more big games for this WR3+.
On the other side of the ball, I suggested last week that Randall Cobb could lose his starting job. Marquez Valdes-Scantling once again looked better than Cobb's looked in years. Yes, Cobb blew up in Week 1. But he was a mere WR4 last year and gets hurt too often to be a reliable roster hold.
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A quick update on my weekly unconventional picks: nine of my 16 Week 6 predictions panned out. These are intended to go wildly against the grain, hopefully giving you value that's hard to come by elsewhere. On the season I'm 45-for-98, which means that 46% of the time, that picks that almost no one else is making are hitting. Last year I hit on 59%, though back then I used Fan Duel pricing to determine bargains and busts, which probably wasn't as useful as the consensus expert rankings I'm using this season. We'll see if I can get that mark about 50% as the year goes on.
And I hit on the 50/50, bring my season total to 3-2-1.
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As I like to do on Tuesday mornings, here are some free agents to target when most league waivers open up tomorrow morning:
I was wrong about Mitch Trubisky this summer. Last year 10 Chicago receivers caught a combined 174 balls for 2,088 yards and nine TDs. Those same 10 players this year have five catches for 37 yards and no scores.
Think about that: the 2017 Bears' receivers were so sub-par that most of them haven't even stepped onto the field in 2018.
An improving Tarik Cohen, combined with the additions of Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and even Anthony Miller, have made Trubisky a weekly streamer at worst, and a likely top-14 QB in the right situations. Available in 67% of ESPN leagues, four of his next five games are against pretty bad defenses -- and in all four he'll be at home. Unless you have a top-8 QB, Trubisky is probably my #1 free agent add this week. And I say that knowing I'm competing against some of you in the first annual FF4W Premier Fantasy League. And some of you need a QB this week. So you know how to piss me off at tomorrow's waivers.
At RB, with word that D'Onta Foreman might not be ready anytime soon, Alfred Blue (79% Available) is a fantastic handcuff behind the struggling Lamar Miller. And I'm once again pushing Nick Chubb (78%), even after another little-used outing. Why? Because Carlos Hyde is entirely TD-dependent, mustering only 3.4 yards per carry with declining volume each of the last three weeks.
How is Christian Kirk is available in 86% of leagues? He's now a top-45 WR with room to grow. Marquise Goodwin (56% Available) deserves more love, while Damion Ratley (100% Available) has staked a claim to a starting job in Cleveland. Ratley is a legit talent who could leap-frog the mistake-prone Antonio Callaway on a team that desperately needs another reliable receiver. Meanwhile, Cole Beasley (92% Available) is no fluke. The question is whether he'll become Dallas's #1 receiver. Given his status on nearly ever waiver wire, he's an easy risk to take.
At TE, Vance McDonald's (50% Available) stock plummeted after his Week 5 disappearance. He'll rise again after an impressive showing this past Sunday, and is poised for another TE1 performance against the Browns after the bye. And O.J. Howard (63% Available) is painfully under-rostered.
If you started Alfred Morris last night, my condolences. That said, I've been screaming through my computer ever since the Niners signed him: "Stay away!" "Sell high!" "Et cetera!" Who cares that he's played with Kyle Shanahan and "understands his system"? He's simply not very good anymore. Raheem Mostert -- the 26-year-old with 13 career carries entering MNF -- looked far better than Morris has all season. The Niners' coaches saw it, too. This will remain a two-man backfield for the foreseeable future, with Mostert and Matt Breida dominated touches and Morris sticking to the sidelines. Breida remains very valuable as the more trusted 1A.
I've also been screaming about the mostly forgotten Marquise Goodwin. As you'll see below, he was available in 56% of ESPN leagues entering the weekend. He was one of my 16 Week 6 unconventional predictions (see Saturday's post), and he exceeded expectations. Outside of George Kittle, Goodwin is clear-and-away the most talented receiver in one of the league's least-talented groups. Expect more big games for this WR3+.
On the other side of the ball, I suggested last week that Randall Cobb could lose his starting job. Marquez Valdes-Scantling once again looked better than Cobb's looked in years. Yes, Cobb blew up in Week 1. But he was a mere WR4 last year and gets hurt too often to be a reliable roster hold.
---
A quick update on my weekly unconventional picks: nine of my 16 Week 6 predictions panned out. These are intended to go wildly against the grain, hopefully giving you value that's hard to come by elsewhere. On the season I'm 45-for-98, which means that 46% of the time, that picks that almost no one else is making are hitting. Last year I hit on 59%, though back then I used Fan Duel pricing to determine bargains and busts, which probably wasn't as useful as the consensus expert rankings I'm using this season. We'll see if I can get that mark about 50% as the year goes on.
And I hit on the 50/50, bring my season total to 3-2-1.
---
As I like to do on Tuesday mornings, here are some free agents to target when most league waivers open up tomorrow morning:
I was wrong about Mitch Trubisky this summer. Last year 10 Chicago receivers caught a combined 174 balls for 2,088 yards and nine TDs. Those same 10 players this year have five catches for 37 yards and no scores.
Think about that: the 2017 Bears' receivers were so sub-par that most of them haven't even stepped onto the field in 2018.
An improving Tarik Cohen, combined with the additions of Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and even Anthony Miller, have made Trubisky a weekly streamer at worst, and a likely top-14 QB in the right situations. Available in 67% of ESPN leagues, four of his next five games are against pretty bad defenses -- and in all four he'll be at home. Unless you have a top-8 QB, Trubisky is probably my #1 free agent add this week. And I say that knowing I'm competing against some of you in the first annual FF4W Premier Fantasy League. And some of you need a QB this week. So you know how to piss me off at tomorrow's waivers.
At RB, with word that D'Onta Foreman might not be ready anytime soon, Alfred Blue (79% Available) is a fantastic handcuff behind the struggling Lamar Miller. And I'm once again pushing Nick Chubb (78%), even after another little-used outing. Why? Because Carlos Hyde is entirely TD-dependent, mustering only 3.4 yards per carry with declining volume each of the last three weeks.
How is Christian Kirk is available in 86% of leagues? He's now a top-45 WR with room to grow. Marquise Goodwin (56% Available) deserves more love, while Damion Ratley (100% Available) has staked a claim to a starting job in Cleveland. Ratley is a legit talent who could leap-frog the mistake-prone Antonio Callaway on a team that desperately needs another reliable receiver. Meanwhile, Cole Beasley (92% Available) is no fluke. The question is whether he'll become Dallas's #1 receiver. Given his status on nearly ever waiver wire, he's an easy risk to take.
At TE, Vance McDonald's (50% Available) stock plummeted after his Week 5 disappearance. He'll rise again after an impressive showing this past Sunday, and is poised for another TE1 performance against the Browns after the bye. And O.J. Howard (63% Available) is painfully under-rostered.