We could all use a bargain QB now and then -- well, except those of you who drafted any of a dozen or so high-flying quarterbacks averaging 20-26 fantasy points per game. But there’s always bye weeks, so at some point you need a 16+ point guy to get you over the hump. This week, Sam Darnold (consensus 25th ranked Week 6 QB) is that guy. Fantasy’s 26th best QB is actually a nice flyer at home against a poor Indy pass defense. With Robby Anderson coming alive and the poor pass-catching Isaiah Crowell at risk of sitting Sunday, I’m eyeing 35+ pass attempts and enough big plays to make him relevant.
On the flip side, let’s slow down on Jameis Winston (6th), who will earn his first start of the season after incapably replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick. Winston has the personnel -- at least in the passing game -- to put up big numbers against a hemorrhaging Atlanta D. But he won’t be a top-10 QB.
At RB, Ito Smith (50th) could push for 10+ touches in a depleted backfield. The talented rookie will also benefit from a Falcons offense that could hang 40 points on the Bucs. Meanwhile, Ronald Jones (43rd) will outperform expectations. You do the math: I’m calling for Atlanta to score buckets of points, and for Winston to be merely mediocre. Headed toward three straight losses, Tampa Bay will officially bail on Peyton Barber and give Jones all he can handle in the second half. Finally, Mike Davis (38th) offers better value than his ranking suggests as a split-time back in a favorable matchup against Oakland.
On the flip side, no, T.J. Yeldon doesn’t deserve to be this week’s 10th ranked RB. This rating is purely based on how well he’s performed these past two weeks, and doesn’t factor in a much tougher face-off in Dallas. Likewise, Marshawn Lynch (13th) needs to find the end zone this week to have a chance of meeting or exceeding his lofty ranking. Don’t bank on anything resembling a high- or even mid-range RB2 performance.
At WR, remember when Marquise Goodwin was a consensus top-30 fantasy WR? This week he’s ranked 72nd as he works his way back from injury. With Dante Pettis out and Pierre Garcon assuming his rightful place as a WR5/6, a healthy Goodwin will be a top-50 WR hands-down and is a worthwhile flyer if you need a boom-bust flex (for example, if Garcon happens to be your flex). Chester Rogers (59th) is another vastly underrated Week 6 option; he could catch eight balls for zero yard and still exceed expectations. Robby Anderson (47th) isn’t yet taken seriously as a viable weekly starter, nor should he be. Last year’s most surprising breakout receiver is still trying to find his groove with Sam Darnold at the helm. He should out-pace all Jets receivers going forward. And finally, Larry Fitzgerald (41st) keeps hitting lower rock bottoms. Is he startable? Hardly. Is he over-rostered (81% of ESPN leagues)? Absolutely. But after averaging only 2.5 catches in each of his past four games, the future Hall-of-Famer will finally get the on-field attention he deserves.
On the flip side, Jarvis Landry (11th) is fourth in the NFL in targets (58), yet only 24th in fantasy points. Something has to give. The question is which way it’ll give. I don’t see Landry busting out, meaning top 16-18 numbers are his ceiling this week, and his floor is somewhere in the barely startable top 26-30 range. And with Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp expected to play, I wouldn’t buy into Robert Woods #14 Week 6 ranking.
As previously suggested, Niles Paul (26th) is my favorite TE bargain this week. The talent is there. The only question is how he’ll be utilized.
On the flip side, Jared Cook (6th) has been practically unstartable in three of his past four games. Yet he continues to be viewed as a near-elite tight end. Will he catch 8-10 balls or 4-5? I’m banking on the latter in another disappointing outing. Also, I’m wary of Jordan Reed justifying his #7 ranking. This once impressive passing attack has taken a step back with Alex Smith at QB, and not even a healthy Reed can be trusted.
On the flip side, let’s slow down on Jameis Winston (6th), who will earn his first start of the season after incapably replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick. Winston has the personnel -- at least in the passing game -- to put up big numbers against a hemorrhaging Atlanta D. But he won’t be a top-10 QB.
At RB, Ito Smith (50th) could push for 10+ touches in a depleted backfield. The talented rookie will also benefit from a Falcons offense that could hang 40 points on the Bucs. Meanwhile, Ronald Jones (43rd) will outperform expectations. You do the math: I’m calling for Atlanta to score buckets of points, and for Winston to be merely mediocre. Headed toward three straight losses, Tampa Bay will officially bail on Peyton Barber and give Jones all he can handle in the second half. Finally, Mike Davis (38th) offers better value than his ranking suggests as a split-time back in a favorable matchup against Oakland.
On the flip side, no, T.J. Yeldon doesn’t deserve to be this week’s 10th ranked RB. This rating is purely based on how well he’s performed these past two weeks, and doesn’t factor in a much tougher face-off in Dallas. Likewise, Marshawn Lynch (13th) needs to find the end zone this week to have a chance of meeting or exceeding his lofty ranking. Don’t bank on anything resembling a high- or even mid-range RB2 performance.
At WR, remember when Marquise Goodwin was a consensus top-30 fantasy WR? This week he’s ranked 72nd as he works his way back from injury. With Dante Pettis out and Pierre Garcon assuming his rightful place as a WR5/6, a healthy Goodwin will be a top-50 WR hands-down and is a worthwhile flyer if you need a boom-bust flex (for example, if Garcon happens to be your flex). Chester Rogers (59th) is another vastly underrated Week 6 option; he could catch eight balls for zero yard and still exceed expectations. Robby Anderson (47th) isn’t yet taken seriously as a viable weekly starter, nor should he be. Last year’s most surprising breakout receiver is still trying to find his groove with Sam Darnold at the helm. He should out-pace all Jets receivers going forward. And finally, Larry Fitzgerald (41st) keeps hitting lower rock bottoms. Is he startable? Hardly. Is he over-rostered (81% of ESPN leagues)? Absolutely. But after averaging only 2.5 catches in each of his past four games, the future Hall-of-Famer will finally get the on-field attention he deserves.
On the flip side, Jarvis Landry (11th) is fourth in the NFL in targets (58), yet only 24th in fantasy points. Something has to give. The question is which way it’ll give. I don’t see Landry busting out, meaning top 16-18 numbers are his ceiling this week, and his floor is somewhere in the barely startable top 26-30 range. And with Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp expected to play, I wouldn’t buy into Robert Woods #14 Week 6 ranking.
As previously suggested, Niles Paul (26th) is my favorite TE bargain this week. The talent is there. The only question is how he’ll be utilized.
On the flip side, Jared Cook (6th) has been practically unstartable in three of his past four games. Yet he continues to be viewed as a near-elite tight end. Will he catch 8-10 balls or 4-5? I’m banking on the latter in another disappointing outing. Also, I’m wary of Jordan Reed justifying his #7 ranking. This once impressive passing attack has taken a step back with Alex Smith at QB, and not even a healthy Reed can be trusted.