Tonight's contest features two teams that thought they'd be better thru the first five weeks. In fairness, the defending champion Eagles have been ravaged by injuries. Carson Wentz, Jay Ajayi, and Alshon Jeffery have missed six games combined, with Ajayi now out for the year. Mike Wallace was knocked out in Week 2 and might not return this season. Darren Sproles has missed four straight games and is probably a 50/50 bet to retire midseason. And last year's top-10 pass defense has taken a step back, perhaps partly due to the early-season loss of Rodney McLeod.
The point is, coming off back-to-back narrow losses, Philly desperately needs a TNF victory. With tough road contests remaining against the Jaguars, Saints, and Rams, it's not hard to see this team eke out a 9-7 season and squeeze into the playoffs by virtue of an historically atrocious NFC East. For context, since the NFC launched in 1970, only twice has the NFC East division winner been as bad as 9-7. Of course, if they can get back to full health by then, they'll be one of the most dangerous 9-7 playoff teams in years.
The Giants are a different story. Loaded with offensive talent at several high-profile positions, their glaring weakness -- the area where a marked improvement would transform this offense -- remains at quarterback. This summer I warned against OBJ at his WR-3 ADP largely due to Eli Manning's diminishing skills. I discussed how in 2015 he was 17-of-52 (33%) for 675 yards on deep balls (those traveling beyond 20 yards), adding eight TDs and zero interceptions. His numbers weakened in 2016 from that distance, going 17-for-66 (26%) for 576 yards, five TDs, and six interceptions. And last year simply wasn't pretty: 9-for-49 (18%) for 303 yards, two TDs, and five interceptions.
Through his first five games this year, his 16-game projections on passes beyond 20 yards look like this: 7-for-42 (17%) for 253 yards, three TDs, and zero interceptions. If you're hanging your hat on that "zero interceptions" pace on deep throws, it's nothing to cheer about. Eli's seemingly impressive 96.6 passer rating masks his continuing decline. He's also on pace to absorb an incredible 51 sacks. Even with Saquon Barkley, this offense has little room for error.
As mentioned earlier this week, we should see plenty of Wendell Smallwood and, more than likely, plenty of Corey Clement against the Giants' bottom-barrel run defense. On the plus side, Olivier Vernon will make his 2018 debut for New York. But if you're looking for an RB3 flyer, there are plenty of worse split-time RBs than Smallwood or Clement. While no one knows how their usage will be split, their passing-game skills and scoring potential make them better-than-normal risks.
Will good Alshon Jeffery show up? I'm betting on it. Expect 10+ targets for the Eagles' #1 receiver and a WR2/3 day. And while I'm not excited to start Carson Wentz, his floor remains fairly high thanks to a dynamic backfield and a pair of reliable receivers. He'll be a top 10-16 option this week, which makes him startable in a good chunk of leagues. Just don't expect a breakout. And of course Zach Ertz is a must-start (and also a must-sell-high, for reasons stated earlier this week).
On the other side of the ball, Saquon Barkley is the consensus third-ranked RB this week. I get that he's unstoppable. But it'll be interesting to see how he matches up against the Eagles' strong run D -- the toughest he's faced yet. He'll have his worst game of the season, which of course is all relative with him.
OBJ is a must-start, obviously. And with Evan Engram out once again, Sterling Shepard continues to have WR3 appeal. But as hinted at earlier, I'm having a tough time recommending Eli as anything more than a top 16-18 QB, and that's if things break right. 200 yards and two TDs would be a solid day. His downside is obviously much worse.
The point is, coming off back-to-back narrow losses, Philly desperately needs a TNF victory. With tough road contests remaining against the Jaguars, Saints, and Rams, it's not hard to see this team eke out a 9-7 season and squeeze into the playoffs by virtue of an historically atrocious NFC East. For context, since the NFC launched in 1970, only twice has the NFC East division winner been as bad as 9-7. Of course, if they can get back to full health by then, they'll be one of the most dangerous 9-7 playoff teams in years.
The Giants are a different story. Loaded with offensive talent at several high-profile positions, their glaring weakness -- the area where a marked improvement would transform this offense -- remains at quarterback. This summer I warned against OBJ at his WR-3 ADP largely due to Eli Manning's diminishing skills. I discussed how in 2015 he was 17-of-52 (33%) for 675 yards on deep balls (those traveling beyond 20 yards), adding eight TDs and zero interceptions. His numbers weakened in 2016 from that distance, going 17-for-66 (26%) for 576 yards, five TDs, and six interceptions. And last year simply wasn't pretty: 9-for-49 (18%) for 303 yards, two TDs, and five interceptions.
Through his first five games this year, his 16-game projections on passes beyond 20 yards look like this: 7-for-42 (17%) for 253 yards, three TDs, and zero interceptions. If you're hanging your hat on that "zero interceptions" pace on deep throws, it's nothing to cheer about. Eli's seemingly impressive 96.6 passer rating masks his continuing decline. He's also on pace to absorb an incredible 51 sacks. Even with Saquon Barkley, this offense has little room for error.
As mentioned earlier this week, we should see plenty of Wendell Smallwood and, more than likely, plenty of Corey Clement against the Giants' bottom-barrel run defense. On the plus side, Olivier Vernon will make his 2018 debut for New York. But if you're looking for an RB3 flyer, there are plenty of worse split-time RBs than Smallwood or Clement. While no one knows how their usage will be split, their passing-game skills and scoring potential make them better-than-normal risks.
Will good Alshon Jeffery show up? I'm betting on it. Expect 10+ targets for the Eagles' #1 receiver and a WR2/3 day. And while I'm not excited to start Carson Wentz, his floor remains fairly high thanks to a dynamic backfield and a pair of reliable receivers. He'll be a top 10-16 option this week, which makes him startable in a good chunk of leagues. Just don't expect a breakout. And of course Zach Ertz is a must-start (and also a must-sell-high, for reasons stated earlier this week).
On the other side of the ball, Saquon Barkley is the consensus third-ranked RB this week. I get that he's unstoppable. But it'll be interesting to see how he matches up against the Eagles' strong run D -- the toughest he's faced yet. He'll have his worst game of the season, which of course is all relative with him.
OBJ is a must-start, obviously. And with Evan Engram out once again, Sterling Shepard continues to have WR3 appeal. But as hinted at earlier, I'm having a tough time recommending Eli as anything more than a top 16-18 QB, and that's if things break right. 200 yards and two TDs would be a solid day. His downside is obviously much worse.