After warning that Mark Ingram would take a backseat to Alvin Kamara, I went to sleep humbled. Sean Payton clearly had other plans, feeding Ingram in his 2018 debut and resting the presumably overworked Kamara. Through that lens, I suppose it made sense. Ingram certainly didn't look great, amassing only 53 yards on 16 carries (3.3 YPC). But he got the ball for two of the Saints' three goal-line scores, propelling him to RB1 production.
I remain stubbornly skeptical that this is anywhere close to the new norm. Kamara is a more dynamic runner / pass-catcher. New Orleans simply didn't need him last night. Their next game Week 7 in Baltimore will play out differently. That said, this was a punch in the gut for those who've leaned on Kamara. I'd only suggest keeping this in perspective and trusting that several reasonable factors contributed to this uniquely down evening for the second-year star.
Elsewhere on the field, just like Randall Cobb in Green Bay, Ted Ginn might not be a starter when he returns. Cameron Meredith continues to round into form, while Tre'Quan Smith finally got the opportunity to build off of an impressive preseason. I clearly completely misread Drew Brees this preseason. All the stats and charts I produced showing the team was becoming more run-heavy, and that the 39-year-old legend was connecting on fewer long passes . . . it's all fairly meaningless now. Brees leads the NFL in QB rating, period. I don't understand it, but of course it's understandable.
Helping to reassure me that I'm not entirely stupid, things played out as expected on the other side of the ball. Alex Smith was one of the most overrated QBs on my preseason draft board (25th ranked vs. QB-18 ADP). He's currently sitting at #24 (although in fairness he's down one game because of a bye) and has looked middling at best against mediocre-to-bad defenses. No wideout is startable at this point, and the normally mostly reliable (when healthy) Jordan Reed is barely a low-end TE1.
Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson's Jekyll-and-Hyde routine is crushing to fantasy managers. I issued some hard warnings in early September that he (and Alfred Morris) were the two most overrated fantasy RBs. While AP has shown flashes of his former self, he remains a huge, huge weekly risk as the season progresses.
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Shifting gears, here are some largely available free agents who should be targeted in some/many leagues heading into Wednesday's waiver transactions:
Ryan Tannehill (80% Available in ESPN leagues), like most QBs, is historically much better at home than on the road. So toss out his last two games, both of which were disastrously bad. Instead focus on his Week 7 home matchup against the Lions. If you're sitting on Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson (all on byes that week), consider snagging Tannehill as a sneaky top-12 option.
Jimmy Garoppolo (91% Available) -- Are you in a two-QB keeper league or a very deep one-QB keeper league? If Jimmy's available, stash him as soon as you can spare the bench spot. Turns out his injury wasn't as severe as originally feared, and he's now expected to be ready for next season's opener. While I remain wary of his top-14 potential in 2019 without at least one receiver upgrade, at worst he'll be a top 18-20 option with occasional top-10 performances.
Blake Bortles (60% Available) -- I pushed him last week when he was 82% available. And I pushed him this preseason when he was the consensus 28th ranked fantasy QB. Do not sleep on Bortles, who's currently the 12th highest scorer at his position.
Mike Davis (85% Available) -- A no-brainer with Rashaad Penny getting shut out Sunday. This is a two-man backfield, with Davis sitting on waivers in nearly every league.
D'Onta Foreman (94% Available) -- I'll keep sounding the alarm here. A healthy Foreman is the most talented Houston RB.
Wendell Smallwood (92% Available) came up in yesterday's column as a guy who could eventually "earn a consistent weekly role behind (or even eventually alongside) the overvalued Jay Ajay." A few hours later, without public warning, Ajayi was placed on Injured Reserve. Smallwood probably will be the biggest waiver add of the week. There's about a 50/50 chance he splits time with Corey Clement, and a 50/50 chance he garners 18+ touches, which would make him a top 16-26 RB out of the gate.
Chris Ivory (91% Available) -- 14 carries didn't net him much over the weekend. But 14 carries in a close game while playing alongside LeSean McCoy speaks volumes. Ivory is a top-12 RB handcuff.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (97% Available) is an obvious call-out, especially if Green Bay's undermanned this coming weekend.
Chester Rogers (93% Available) -- Same story: If T.Y. Hilton sits, Rogers probably will be Indy's #1 wideout.
Cameron Meredith (87% Available) has the tools to eventually become Drew Brees' #2 WR. A terrific flyer for deep leaguers.
Hayden Hurst (93% Available) is certainly no sure thing this season. But he's a name to monitor and a nice Hail Mary if you don't have a top-14 TE.
Delanie Walker (90% Available) -- See Jimmy G. above. Jonnu Smith's face-plant breathes more life into Walker's 2019 value (assuming he makes a full recovery before Week 1). In the veteran you'd be getting a fairly reliable top-10 option, stashed away for dirt cheap.
Greg Olsen (39% Available) -- A weekly 5/50 output would wedge the veteran into the TE1 conversation. So we don't need high expectations to envision Olsen as a useful fantasy starter most weeks. He might return as soon as next weekend.
I remain stubbornly skeptical that this is anywhere close to the new norm. Kamara is a more dynamic runner / pass-catcher. New Orleans simply didn't need him last night. Their next game Week 7 in Baltimore will play out differently. That said, this was a punch in the gut for those who've leaned on Kamara. I'd only suggest keeping this in perspective and trusting that several reasonable factors contributed to this uniquely down evening for the second-year star.
Elsewhere on the field, just like Randall Cobb in Green Bay, Ted Ginn might not be a starter when he returns. Cameron Meredith continues to round into form, while Tre'Quan Smith finally got the opportunity to build off of an impressive preseason. I clearly completely misread Drew Brees this preseason. All the stats and charts I produced showing the team was becoming more run-heavy, and that the 39-year-old legend was connecting on fewer long passes . . . it's all fairly meaningless now. Brees leads the NFL in QB rating, period. I don't understand it, but of course it's understandable.
Helping to reassure me that I'm not entirely stupid, things played out as expected on the other side of the ball. Alex Smith was one of the most overrated QBs on my preseason draft board (25th ranked vs. QB-18 ADP). He's currently sitting at #24 (although in fairness he's down one game because of a bye) and has looked middling at best against mediocre-to-bad defenses. No wideout is startable at this point, and the normally mostly reliable (when healthy) Jordan Reed is barely a low-end TE1.
Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson's Jekyll-and-Hyde routine is crushing to fantasy managers. I issued some hard warnings in early September that he (and Alfred Morris) were the two most overrated fantasy RBs. While AP has shown flashes of his former self, he remains a huge, huge weekly risk as the season progresses.
--
Shifting gears, here are some largely available free agents who should be targeted in some/many leagues heading into Wednesday's waiver transactions:
Ryan Tannehill (80% Available in ESPN leagues), like most QBs, is historically much better at home than on the road. So toss out his last two games, both of which were disastrously bad. Instead focus on his Week 7 home matchup against the Lions. If you're sitting on Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger or Russell Wilson (all on byes that week), consider snagging Tannehill as a sneaky top-12 option.
Jimmy Garoppolo (91% Available) -- Are you in a two-QB keeper league or a very deep one-QB keeper league? If Jimmy's available, stash him as soon as you can spare the bench spot. Turns out his injury wasn't as severe as originally feared, and he's now expected to be ready for next season's opener. While I remain wary of his top-14 potential in 2019 without at least one receiver upgrade, at worst he'll be a top 18-20 option with occasional top-10 performances.
Blake Bortles (60% Available) -- I pushed him last week when he was 82% available. And I pushed him this preseason when he was the consensus 28th ranked fantasy QB. Do not sleep on Bortles, who's currently the 12th highest scorer at his position.
Mike Davis (85% Available) -- A no-brainer with Rashaad Penny getting shut out Sunday. This is a two-man backfield, with Davis sitting on waivers in nearly every league.
D'Onta Foreman (94% Available) -- I'll keep sounding the alarm here. A healthy Foreman is the most talented Houston RB.
Wendell Smallwood (92% Available) came up in yesterday's column as a guy who could eventually "earn a consistent weekly role behind (or even eventually alongside) the overvalued Jay Ajay." A few hours later, without public warning, Ajayi was placed on Injured Reserve. Smallwood probably will be the biggest waiver add of the week. There's about a 50/50 chance he splits time with Corey Clement, and a 50/50 chance he garners 18+ touches, which would make him a top 16-26 RB out of the gate.
Chris Ivory (91% Available) -- 14 carries didn't net him much over the weekend. But 14 carries in a close game while playing alongside LeSean McCoy speaks volumes. Ivory is a top-12 RB handcuff.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (97% Available) is an obvious call-out, especially if Green Bay's undermanned this coming weekend.
Chester Rogers (93% Available) -- Same story: If T.Y. Hilton sits, Rogers probably will be Indy's #1 wideout.
Cameron Meredith (87% Available) has the tools to eventually become Drew Brees' #2 WR. A terrific flyer for deep leaguers.
Hayden Hurst (93% Available) is certainly no sure thing this season. But he's a name to monitor and a nice Hail Mary if you don't have a top-14 TE.
Delanie Walker (90% Available) -- See Jimmy G. above. Jonnu Smith's face-plant breathes more life into Walker's 2019 value (assuming he makes a full recovery before Week 1). In the veteran you'd be getting a fairly reliable top-10 option, stashed away for dirt cheap.
Greg Olsen (39% Available) -- A weekly 5/50 output would wedge the veteran into the TE1 conversation. So we don't need high expectations to envision Olsen as a useful fantasy starter most weeks. He might return as soon as next weekend.