I missed big on two players last night, believing Case Keenum would capitalize on an atrocious Chiefs pass D, while the struggling Kareem Hunt would fall short of RB1 projections against a tough Broncos run D. Those who drafted Hunt are now feeling much better, while those who drafted Demaryius Thomas (97% rostered) have to be wondering whether this 46th best fantasy wideout is droppable (he's not . . . yet). Keenum's $25 million guaranteed ($36 million overall) two-year contract is starting to make GM John Elway look even worse at picking quarterbacks, which is hard to believe after the Paxton Lynch debacle. Maybe selecting bad QBs is bolstering his secret plan to get back on the field and lead Denver to another Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, Phillip Lindsay out-touched Royce Freeman, though both were highly impressive against the NFL's worst run defense (K.C.'s giving up 5.7 yards per carry). If Lindsay does it again against next week versus the stiffer Jets D, I'll become a believer.
And of course many eyes are on Sammy Watkins' hamstring, which knocked him out early last night. There's not obvious replacement if Watkins sits Sunday, giving slight boosts to Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. Of course, the opposing Jaguars will erase those boosts -- another big test for the seemingly unstoppable Patrick Mahomes.
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One report last night suggested Le'Veon Bell could return to the Steelers in three weeks, rewarding patient fantasy managers who seemingly wasted a first-rounder on him, and landing a final blow to those who stole James Conner late. Another report offered that Pittsburgh's still trying to trade him. As you know, I've been pushing readers to sell high on Conner for a little while. The talent gap between him and Bell has been pretty clear. All we can do now is wait and see which direction this franchise goes in. The smart money is that Bell will be pulling in 20+ touches a game somewhere by midseason.
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Finally, as always on Tuesday mornings, here are some largely available free agents who should be targeted in some/many leagues heading into Wednesday's waiver adds:
Blake Bortles (82% Available in ESPN leagues) -- Look at his remaining schedule. Many porous secondaries await. As many of you remember, this page crapped on his universal QB-28 ADP back in August: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2018/08/seattle-backfield-update-and-contrarian.html. Nearly benched last September, he's on pace to be a back-end QB1 by season's end.
Andy Dalton (47% Available) proved me wrong Sunday. His next four games are against bottom-tier pass D's, with three of four coming at home. Amazing value.
Nick Chubb (84% Available) -- You've seen his name pop up in my columns several times, including this past week. He remains a must-add in many leagues.
I'll keep talking up Aaron Jones (45% Available) 'til he's rostered in nearly every league. He's the best RB in Green Bay's backfield, period.
T.J. Yeldon remains 53% available despite entering Week 4 with more fantasy points than guys like David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, and Alex Collins. Leonard Fournette's chances of starting his remaining games are very, very slim. Yeldon is a must-roster in nearly every league.
WR teammates Ryan Grant (89% Available) and Chester Rogers (100% Available) will be popular waiver adds in deeper leagues, as T.Y. Hilton isn't expected to make the trip to New England for Thursday night's contest. While that matchup doesn't look promising, at least Andrew Luck will be throwing a lot.
For the second straight week I'm pushing Taywan Taylor (96% Available). He's the clear #2 in Tennessee and has WR3 potential of Marcus Mariota plays to his realistic potential.
Jordan Matthews (98% Available) is nothing more than "vaguely intriguing" at this point. But in very deep leagues he's a terrific flyer, particularly for bye weeks. He was on the field for more than 50% of Philly's snaps on Sunday and could eventually battle Nelson Agholor as Carson Wentz's #3 target. Of course, this is the Jordan Matthews of today, not the Jordan Matthews of 2016; he's a deep-dive speculative add until/unless he can be a consistent WR5+.
TE teammates Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah are available in essentially 100% of leagues. With Tyler Eifert out for the year, one of these two could become relevant.
Ricky Seals-Jones (89% Available) has begun the season facing the Redskins, Rams, Bears, and Seahawks. With an improved QB situation and a vacuum to fill at the top of the receiver pyramid (the one Larry Fitzgerald has consistently filled 'til this season), RSJ is a good bet to improve on his September numbers.
Finally, I've been kicking myself for not picking up George Swaim (100% Available) Saturday in my uber-deep league. On a team where the most reliable receiver is Zeke Elliott, Swaim offers TD-dependent TE1 potential.
Meanwhile, Phillip Lindsay out-touched Royce Freeman, though both were highly impressive against the NFL's worst run defense (K.C.'s giving up 5.7 yards per carry). If Lindsay does it again against next week versus the stiffer Jets D, I'll become a believer.
And of course many eyes are on Sammy Watkins' hamstring, which knocked him out early last night. There's not obvious replacement if Watkins sits Sunday, giving slight boosts to Hunt, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. Of course, the opposing Jaguars will erase those boosts -- another big test for the seemingly unstoppable Patrick Mahomes.
--
One report last night suggested Le'Veon Bell could return to the Steelers in three weeks, rewarding patient fantasy managers who seemingly wasted a first-rounder on him, and landing a final blow to those who stole James Conner late. Another report offered that Pittsburgh's still trying to trade him. As you know, I've been pushing readers to sell high on Conner for a little while. The talent gap between him and Bell has been pretty clear. All we can do now is wait and see which direction this franchise goes in. The smart money is that Bell will be pulling in 20+ touches a game somewhere by midseason.
--
Finally, as always on Tuesday mornings, here are some largely available free agents who should be targeted in some/many leagues heading into Wednesday's waiver adds:
Blake Bortles (82% Available in ESPN leagues) -- Look at his remaining schedule. Many porous secondaries await. As many of you remember, this page crapped on his universal QB-28 ADP back in August: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2018/08/seattle-backfield-update-and-contrarian.html. Nearly benched last September, he's on pace to be a back-end QB1 by season's end.
Andy Dalton (47% Available) proved me wrong Sunday. His next four games are against bottom-tier pass D's, with three of four coming at home. Amazing value.
Nick Chubb (84% Available) -- You've seen his name pop up in my columns several times, including this past week. He remains a must-add in many leagues.
I'll keep talking up Aaron Jones (45% Available) 'til he's rostered in nearly every league. He's the best RB in Green Bay's backfield, period.
T.J. Yeldon remains 53% available despite entering Week 4 with more fantasy points than guys like David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, and Alex Collins. Leonard Fournette's chances of starting his remaining games are very, very slim. Yeldon is a must-roster in nearly every league.
WR teammates Ryan Grant (89% Available) and Chester Rogers (100% Available) will be popular waiver adds in deeper leagues, as T.Y. Hilton isn't expected to make the trip to New England for Thursday night's contest. While that matchup doesn't look promising, at least Andrew Luck will be throwing a lot.
For the second straight week I'm pushing Taywan Taylor (96% Available). He's the clear #2 in Tennessee and has WR3 potential of Marcus Mariota plays to his realistic potential.
Jordan Matthews (98% Available) is nothing more than "vaguely intriguing" at this point. But in very deep leagues he's a terrific flyer, particularly for bye weeks. He was on the field for more than 50% of Philly's snaps on Sunday and could eventually battle Nelson Agholor as Carson Wentz's #3 target. Of course, this is the Jordan Matthews of today, not the Jordan Matthews of 2016; he's a deep-dive speculative add until/unless he can be a consistent WR5+.
TE teammates Tyler Kroft and C.J. Uzomah are available in essentially 100% of leagues. With Tyler Eifert out for the year, one of these two could become relevant.
Ricky Seals-Jones (89% Available) has begun the season facing the Redskins, Rams, Bears, and Seahawks. With an improved QB situation and a vacuum to fill at the top of the receiver pyramid (the one Larry Fitzgerald has consistently filled 'til this season), RSJ is a good bet to improve on his September numbers.
Finally, I've been kicking myself for not picking up George Swaim (100% Available) Saturday in my uber-deep league. On a team where the most reliable receiver is Zeke Elliott, Swaim offers TD-dependent TE1 potential.