This is one of those weeks that really, really matters. Yes, they all matter. And I don't like hyperbole. But if you're 0-4 or 1-3, it could all come down to this week. In most leagues, a small fraction of 7-6 teams make it to the postseason. In most cases, you have to be at least 8-5, and occasionally the cutoff is 9-4.
That means if you're 0-4 and lose this week, you have to run the table -- including navigating often treacherous bye weeks, not to mention the constant threat of injuries -- to have a decent shot at the playoffs. If you're 1-3 and lose, the margin of error going forward is razor-thin.
On the flip side, if you're 3-1 or 4-0, a win means you can go .500 the rest of the way and probably get in. It means you can take some risks by trading for underperforming high-upside guys, or picking up inactive players like D'Onta Foreman to see if they break through later this season.
Speaking of inactive players, a pair of them are returning this weekend. What should we expect? The almost 29-year-old Mark Ingram is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons and probably would have been a top-15 overall pick if he hadn't been suspended. He was last year's #6 fantasy RB, thanks in large part to 58 catches and 12 touchdowns. He also touched the ball 87 times more than backfield mate Alvin Kamara. By all accounts, he should be an RB1, right?
Well, most of New Orleans' remaining opponents have top-10 run defenses, at least so far. Kamara has proven he can handle massive workloads (he's on pace for 364 touches). And New Orleans is yielding 30 points per game -- fourth most in the league. These are not prime conditions for a nearly post-prime RB looking to reclaim the 18 looks per game he averaged last year. Experts rank him, on average, as the 16th best RB in Week 5. No one ranks him outside the top 23. I think that's misguided, viewing him as a risky RB2 who will need goal-line looks Monday night to rationalize starting him as your #2. He'll far short of expectations.
Meanwhile, as I wrote this summer, Julian Edelman hasn't played since Super Bowl 51. His preseason WR-31 ADP was ridiculous; it assumed a return to low-end WR2 production when he re-took the field. Although he was the 15th highest scoring WR in 2016 (his last season), he was third in targets (159). That's essentially 10 per game. He averaged nearly 10 a game in comparably impressive 2013 and 2014 seasons. Now he's 32, coming off a 20-month hiatus, and competing for looks with Gronk, the surprisingly invisible Chris Hogan, Josh Gordon, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarelle Patterson, James White, and Sony Michel. Best-case scenario, he pushes Patterson and either Dorsett or Gordon or Hogan to irrelevancy. But for a guy who's needed tons of targets throughout his career to maintain respectable fantasy value, he's a very risky flex starter.
One more set of stats to consider: Gronk was out for half of Edelman's impressive 2016 season and more than half of Edelman's impressive 2013 season. Only once -- in his age-28 2014 campaign -- has Edelman fared well while playing all season with a comparably healthy/talented receiver. He'll debut tonight in a surprisingly crowded receiving corps, with only a small chance to break free from the pack.
Speaking of tonight, it's hard to imagine a T.Y. Hilton-less Colts competing with the Patriots for more than the first 20-25 minutes. Indy's running game is among the league's worst. Their passing attack is deceptively bad: Andrew Luck is #2 in the NFL in attempts (186). Yet he's averaging a bottom-barrel 6.05 yard per attempt. Roughly one of every five throws has gone to Hilton, who's collected a healthy 14 yards per reception -- which shows how bad Luck would have been without him. I don't see the Colts mustering more than 13 points, and that's optimistic. Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant are desperation starts with 5/50 upsides and 2/20 downsides. At a weak TE position, Eric Ebron is a worthwhile dart throw if you don't have a TE1. All four or five running backs can be ignored.
As for the Patriots, last weekend I predicted a pummeling of the Dolphins -- at the time, not the most popular prediction, as some readers saw a reeling New England offense and seemingly unstoppable Miami offense and said, "Um, what the hell are you talking about?" Tonight will be another pummeling. The Pats are rounding into form. And from a fantasy perspective, managers are counting their blessings that there are only two RBs to worry about instead of the usual three or four. James White is once again a must-start RB2/flex, while Sony Michel continues to surprise me, and probably will again. Expect another 3-TD night for Tom Brady.
That means if you're 0-4 and lose this week, you have to run the table -- including navigating often treacherous bye weeks, not to mention the constant threat of injuries -- to have a decent shot at the playoffs. If you're 1-3 and lose, the margin of error going forward is razor-thin.
On the flip side, if you're 3-1 or 4-0, a win means you can go .500 the rest of the way and probably get in. It means you can take some risks by trading for underperforming high-upside guys, or picking up inactive players like D'Onta Foreman to see if they break through later this season.
Speaking of inactive players, a pair of them are returning this weekend. What should we expect? The almost 29-year-old Mark Ingram is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons and probably would have been a top-15 overall pick if he hadn't been suspended. He was last year's #6 fantasy RB, thanks in large part to 58 catches and 12 touchdowns. He also touched the ball 87 times more than backfield mate Alvin Kamara. By all accounts, he should be an RB1, right?
Well, most of New Orleans' remaining opponents have top-10 run defenses, at least so far. Kamara has proven he can handle massive workloads (he's on pace for 364 touches). And New Orleans is yielding 30 points per game -- fourth most in the league. These are not prime conditions for a nearly post-prime RB looking to reclaim the 18 looks per game he averaged last year. Experts rank him, on average, as the 16th best RB in Week 5. No one ranks him outside the top 23. I think that's misguided, viewing him as a risky RB2 who will need goal-line looks Monday night to rationalize starting him as your #2. He'll far short of expectations.
Meanwhile, as I wrote this summer, Julian Edelman hasn't played since Super Bowl 51. His preseason WR-31 ADP was ridiculous; it assumed a return to low-end WR2 production when he re-took the field. Although he was the 15th highest scoring WR in 2016 (his last season), he was third in targets (159). That's essentially 10 per game. He averaged nearly 10 a game in comparably impressive 2013 and 2014 seasons. Now he's 32, coming off a 20-month hiatus, and competing for looks with Gronk, the surprisingly invisible Chris Hogan, Josh Gordon, Phillip Dorsett, Cordarelle Patterson, James White, and Sony Michel. Best-case scenario, he pushes Patterson and either Dorsett or Gordon or Hogan to irrelevancy. But for a guy who's needed tons of targets throughout his career to maintain respectable fantasy value, he's a very risky flex starter.
One more set of stats to consider: Gronk was out for half of Edelman's impressive 2016 season and more than half of Edelman's impressive 2013 season. Only once -- in his age-28 2014 campaign -- has Edelman fared well while playing all season with a comparably healthy/talented receiver. He'll debut tonight in a surprisingly crowded receiving corps, with only a small chance to break free from the pack.
Speaking of tonight, it's hard to imagine a T.Y. Hilton-less Colts competing with the Patriots for more than the first 20-25 minutes. Indy's running game is among the league's worst. Their passing attack is deceptively bad: Andrew Luck is #2 in the NFL in attempts (186). Yet he's averaging a bottom-barrel 6.05 yard per attempt. Roughly one of every five throws has gone to Hilton, who's collected a healthy 14 yards per reception -- which shows how bad Luck would have been without him. I don't see the Colts mustering more than 13 points, and that's optimistic. Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant are desperation starts with 5/50 upsides and 2/20 downsides. At a weak TE position, Eric Ebron is a worthwhile dart throw if you don't have a TE1. All four or five running backs can be ignored.
As for the Patriots, last weekend I predicted a pummeling of the Dolphins -- at the time, not the most popular prediction, as some readers saw a reeling New England offense and seemingly unstoppable Miami offense and said, "Um, what the hell are you talking about?" Tonight will be another pummeling. The Pats are rounding into form. And from a fantasy perspective, managers are counting their blessings that there are only two RBs to worry about instead of the usual three or four. James White is once again a must-start RB2/flex, while Sony Michel continues to surprise me, and probably will again. Expect another 3-TD night for Tom Brady.