The biggest challenge with posting an "ideal" 50/50 lineup four hours before kickoff is that a lot can change between now and then. That's because there are a number of game-time decisions looming. For example, Paul Richardson remains a game-time decision in an offense already expected to be without Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson. Richardson's status will have a ripple effect on Josh Doctson (who's also questionable), Jordan Reed, and the ultra-cheap Maurice Harris.
There are also usage question marks. Reports suggest Dalvin Cook will be on a snap count today. And O.J. Howard will give it a go despite recovering from a sprained MCL. The reality is, we'll know more about the likely usage of these and other players closer to kickoff. And I'm not waiting 'til 12:45pm to post this column.
So I need to figure out a way to present the best 50/50 lineup I can with the information I have several hours before game-time, while still allowing for some "what if" flexibility based on what we'll learn later this morning. There's no best way to do this, except present multiple options based on multiple scenarios. And who has time to read all that?
So here's my ideal 50/50 for Week 6 based on what is known right now (9:30am Eastern).
Oh, and what about Week 5? You all shared eight examples of my lineup winning and 15 examples of it losing. A couple weeks ago the reverse happened (almost exactly), and I called it a tie. I reasoned that a win isn't a win unless it's pretty obvious. This time around, though, I'm calling Week 5 a loss: a miss is a miss if a clear majority of you miss. In Vegas "the House" wins tiebreakers. At FF4W, we need to do better.
QB Matt Ryan ($8,300) -- One of the most expensive QBs, and also one of the best positioned we'll see all year: Huge season numbers, awful opposing pass defense, Devonta Freeman out, and coming off a terrible outing. Ryan is primed for top-5 QB numbers.
RB Todd Gurley ($9,500) -- Denver's run defense is terrible. Gurley leads the league in fantasy points inside the opposing 5-yard line. While I hate spending that much on anyone, there aren't enough reliable RBs this week to feel confident going cheap.
RB Joe Mixon ($7,500) -- When healthy, Mixon has proven to be exceptional. With Tyler Eifert and Gio Bernard sidelined, the Bengals' offense is more top-heavy, and that gives Mixon an additional Week 6 advantage against a mid-range Pittsburgh run defense.
WR Julio Jones ($8,500) -- Zero TDs this year. Only four since mid-November 2016. And five catches in three of his past four games. What's to love -- or even like -- about him today? Why not save a couple thousand dollars to snag Calvin Ridley? Because today was made for Julio. A 10/180/1 line is realistic.
WR Tyler Boyd ($6,300) -- There aren't any highly reliable WR2s in the $6,000-$7,500 range. So I'm going with Boyd, particularly with John Ross expected to sit.
WR Robby Anderson ($5,500) -- Cheap enough to risk this boom-bust option. Was last week a fluke? Or last season, for that matter? No, as I've written before, Anderson is the Jets' most talented receiver. He's still developing a rapport with Sam Darnold, and the matchup is right for another WR3+ performance.
TE Niles Paul ($4,800) -- The same guy I've been pushing all week. The slightly cheaper Cameron Brate and Vance McDonald have been in and out of my 50/50 all week. In the end I'm trusting Paul, who's going against a Dallas team that's yielded 30 receptions (fourth most in the NFL) to opposing TEs. Keep in mind three of those games came against sub-par TE attacks in Seattle (Nick Vannett), Detroit (Levine Toilolo and Luke Willson), and Houston (Ryan Griffin).
FLEX Antonio Callaway ($4,900) -- Can Callaway make good on his potential? It helps that Rashard Higgins is out. It also helps that the Chargers should post 20+ points, meaning Baker Mayfield will need to throw more than usual.
DST Texans ($4,700) -- Buffalo's passing game is a mess, and Houston's run D is phenomenal. I like that combination as the Texans try to claw back into the playoff conversation after starting 0-3.
Good luck today.
There are also usage question marks. Reports suggest Dalvin Cook will be on a snap count today. And O.J. Howard will give it a go despite recovering from a sprained MCL. The reality is, we'll know more about the likely usage of these and other players closer to kickoff. And I'm not waiting 'til 12:45pm to post this column.
So I need to figure out a way to present the best 50/50 lineup I can with the information I have several hours before game-time, while still allowing for some "what if" flexibility based on what we'll learn later this morning. There's no best way to do this, except present multiple options based on multiple scenarios. And who has time to read all that?
So here's my ideal 50/50 for Week 6 based on what is known right now (9:30am Eastern).
Oh, and what about Week 5? You all shared eight examples of my lineup winning and 15 examples of it losing. A couple weeks ago the reverse happened (almost exactly), and I called it a tie. I reasoned that a win isn't a win unless it's pretty obvious. This time around, though, I'm calling Week 5 a loss: a miss is a miss if a clear majority of you miss. In Vegas "the House" wins tiebreakers. At FF4W, we need to do better.
QB Matt Ryan ($8,300) -- One of the most expensive QBs, and also one of the best positioned we'll see all year: Huge season numbers, awful opposing pass defense, Devonta Freeman out, and coming off a terrible outing. Ryan is primed for top-5 QB numbers.
RB Todd Gurley ($9,500) -- Denver's run defense is terrible. Gurley leads the league in fantasy points inside the opposing 5-yard line. While I hate spending that much on anyone, there aren't enough reliable RBs this week to feel confident going cheap.
RB Joe Mixon ($7,500) -- When healthy, Mixon has proven to be exceptional. With Tyler Eifert and Gio Bernard sidelined, the Bengals' offense is more top-heavy, and that gives Mixon an additional Week 6 advantage against a mid-range Pittsburgh run defense.
WR Julio Jones ($8,500) -- Zero TDs this year. Only four since mid-November 2016. And five catches in three of his past four games. What's to love -- or even like -- about him today? Why not save a couple thousand dollars to snag Calvin Ridley? Because today was made for Julio. A 10/180/1 line is realistic.
WR Tyler Boyd ($6,300) -- There aren't any highly reliable WR2s in the $6,000-$7,500 range. So I'm going with Boyd, particularly with John Ross expected to sit.
WR Robby Anderson ($5,500) -- Cheap enough to risk this boom-bust option. Was last week a fluke? Or last season, for that matter? No, as I've written before, Anderson is the Jets' most talented receiver. He's still developing a rapport with Sam Darnold, and the matchup is right for another WR3+ performance.
TE Niles Paul ($4,800) -- The same guy I've been pushing all week. The slightly cheaper Cameron Brate and Vance McDonald have been in and out of my 50/50 all week. In the end I'm trusting Paul, who's going against a Dallas team that's yielded 30 receptions (fourth most in the NFL) to opposing TEs. Keep in mind three of those games came against sub-par TE attacks in Seattle (Nick Vannett), Detroit (Levine Toilolo and Luke Willson), and Houston (Ryan Griffin).
FLEX Antonio Callaway ($4,900) -- Can Callaway make good on his potential? It helps that Rashard Higgins is out. It also helps that the Chargers should post 20+ points, meaning Baker Mayfield will need to throw more than usual.
DST Texans ($4,700) -- Buffalo's passing game is a mess, and Houston's run D is phenomenal. I like that combination as the Texans try to claw back into the playoff conversation after starting 0-3.
Good luck today.