Time for the Week 4 edition of “Bargains and Bust." A lot to cover, so jumping right in.
At quarterback, Case Keenum (18th ranked QB based on Fantasy Pros' composite of nationwide experts) flopped in Baltimore last weekend and is now rostered in only 16% of ESPN leagues. He's my favorite bargain QB heading into a home matchup against the sieve-like Chiefs D. Keenum hasn't thrown a TD pass since Week 1. He'll get three on Monday night. I also like Eli Manning (17th) in what could be a high-scoring contest against the Saints.
On the flip side, Andy Dalton (9th) is getting a bit too much credit. I get that Atlanta's defense has been decimated by three major injuries. But with Joe Mixon out for Cincy, I don't see Dalton as a QB1. Tyler Boyd will be held in check after two straight blistering performances. Dalton's headed toward a 240/2 day at best.
At running back, don't be surprised if Aaron Jones (33rd) builds off his 7-touch Week 3 debut with 14+ touches this weekend. He has bargain potential simply based on usage, and he's about a 50/50 bet to run one in against the Bills. If you don't have an RB3+, Jones's upside makes him worth the risk. Tarik Cohen (30th) is also undervalued. The opposing Bucs are elite against the run and bottom-barrel against the pass. I think this is one of those games where Cohen becomes a bigger part of the Bears' game plan. Also, the Bucs are bottom-third in time of possession; Ryan Fitzpatrick moves the ball downfield quickly, or gives it up. So running more plays than usual, Cohen will see more touches than usual. It adds up to a top-25 day and strong RB2 upside.
On the flip side, Kareem Hunt (8th) has been a TD monster through three contests. But his otherwise poor rushing will collide with Denver's tough run D. Hunt is a safe bet to finish no better than an RB2.
At wideout, second-year pro Taywan Taylor (69th) is expected to move into the starting lineup after Rishard Matthews ditched the team Wednesday, and was subsequently released. Taylor will be a WR4+ this weekend on the expectation Marcus Mariota's elbow is on the mend. Philly's run D is exceptional, so I'm anticipated Mariota throwing more than usual. And despite San Francisco losing their start quarterback, I'm still looking at Marquise Goodwin (51st) as a bargain against the Chargers' atrocious secondary. Inching up the rankings, Antonio Callaway (47th) has breakout potential if the Baker Mayfield hype is justified, making him worth the risk as a flex option.
Oh, and remember Chris Hogan (41st)? Wasn't he supposed to be a WR1/2 while Julian Edelman was on the shelf? It's been a disastrous start for the Patriots, and it won't continue. Tom Brady will go off against the overrated 3-0 Dolphins, with Hogan easily exceeding his reception and yardage season-highs. Meanwhile, the Mike Williams (37th) train left the station a while ago, and I certainly missed it. He's worth starting in just about every league in a plus home matchup against the reeling Niners.
On the flip side, I would be cautious about #5 fantasy scoring WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (9th) against the tough division rival Ravens. Saw someone comment the other day that JuJu is now the #1 in Pittsburgh. I'm not ready to go there. JuJu's on pace for a 144/1,899/5 season. Let's put the breaks on the "he's unstoppable" talk. JuJu will be lucky to post low-end WR2 numbers this week. And Golden Tate (16th) faces an uphill climb in Dallas on Sunday. Matthew Stafford has plenty of weapons, and the Cowboys have plenty of resources to keep him in check.
At tight end, of course Rhett Ellison (21st) is worth a flyer if you don't have a TE1 handy. And I'm stubbornly still pushing Jonnu Smith (27th), who's too talented to remain useless in an offense that desperately needs him.
On the flip side, Green Bay has little reason to over-work Jimmy Graham (4th) against Buffalo. Five catches for 50 yards seems more realistic than what his impressive ranking suggests. I'm also baffled at why Jared Cook (6th) continues to get so much fantasy love.
At quarterback, Case Keenum (18th ranked QB based on Fantasy Pros' composite of nationwide experts) flopped in Baltimore last weekend and is now rostered in only 16% of ESPN leagues. He's my favorite bargain QB heading into a home matchup against the sieve-like Chiefs D. Keenum hasn't thrown a TD pass since Week 1. He'll get three on Monday night. I also like Eli Manning (17th) in what could be a high-scoring contest against the Saints.
On the flip side, Andy Dalton (9th) is getting a bit too much credit. I get that Atlanta's defense has been decimated by three major injuries. But with Joe Mixon out for Cincy, I don't see Dalton as a QB1. Tyler Boyd will be held in check after two straight blistering performances. Dalton's headed toward a 240/2 day at best.
At running back, don't be surprised if Aaron Jones (33rd) builds off his 7-touch Week 3 debut with 14+ touches this weekend. He has bargain potential simply based on usage, and he's about a 50/50 bet to run one in against the Bills. If you don't have an RB3+, Jones's upside makes him worth the risk. Tarik Cohen (30th) is also undervalued. The opposing Bucs are elite against the run and bottom-barrel against the pass. I think this is one of those games where Cohen becomes a bigger part of the Bears' game plan. Also, the Bucs are bottom-third in time of possession; Ryan Fitzpatrick moves the ball downfield quickly, or gives it up. So running more plays than usual, Cohen will see more touches than usual. It adds up to a top-25 day and strong RB2 upside.
On the flip side, Kareem Hunt (8th) has been a TD monster through three contests. But his otherwise poor rushing will collide with Denver's tough run D. Hunt is a safe bet to finish no better than an RB2.
At wideout, second-year pro Taywan Taylor (69th) is expected to move into the starting lineup after Rishard Matthews ditched the team Wednesday, and was subsequently released. Taylor will be a WR4+ this weekend on the expectation Marcus Mariota's elbow is on the mend. Philly's run D is exceptional, so I'm anticipated Mariota throwing more than usual. And despite San Francisco losing their start quarterback, I'm still looking at Marquise Goodwin (51st) as a bargain against the Chargers' atrocious secondary. Inching up the rankings, Antonio Callaway (47th) has breakout potential if the Baker Mayfield hype is justified, making him worth the risk as a flex option.
Oh, and remember Chris Hogan (41st)? Wasn't he supposed to be a WR1/2 while Julian Edelman was on the shelf? It's been a disastrous start for the Patriots, and it won't continue. Tom Brady will go off against the overrated 3-0 Dolphins, with Hogan easily exceeding his reception and yardage season-highs. Meanwhile, the Mike Williams (37th) train left the station a while ago, and I certainly missed it. He's worth starting in just about every league in a plus home matchup against the reeling Niners.
On the flip side, I would be cautious about #5 fantasy scoring WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (9th) against the tough division rival Ravens. Saw someone comment the other day that JuJu is now the #1 in Pittsburgh. I'm not ready to go there. JuJu's on pace for a 144/1,899/5 season. Let's put the breaks on the "he's unstoppable" talk. JuJu will be lucky to post low-end WR2 numbers this week. And Golden Tate (16th) faces an uphill climb in Dallas on Sunday. Matthew Stafford has plenty of weapons, and the Cowboys have plenty of resources to keep him in check.
At tight end, of course Rhett Ellison (21st) is worth a flyer if you don't have a TE1 handy. And I'm stubbornly still pushing Jonnu Smith (27th), who's too talented to remain useless in an offense that desperately needs him.
On the flip side, Green Bay has little reason to over-work Jimmy Graham (4th) against Buffalo. Five catches for 50 yards seems more realistic than what his impressive ranking suggests. I'm also baffled at why Jared Cook (6th) continues to get so much fantasy love.