A big win for a team that desperately needed one. By now it should be clear that James Conner is no Le'Veon Bell. His Week 1 was a fluke. He's an RB2 based on usage and TD potential in a strong offense. If you can still sell him for top 8-10 RB value, I suggest jumping on it. This surely won't be a popular call. But I believe it's the right one.
Antonio Brown is the 11th highest scoring fantasy WR, wedged between Calvin Ridley and Kenny Golladay. JuJu Smith-Schuster's continued ascension has a lot to do with this. Less obvious is Big Ben's rising dependence on tight ends. Jesse James and Vance McDonald are on pace for a combined 85 receptions. When factoring in Xavier Grimble, last year's Pittsburgh TEs had only 62. In 2016, 68. I looked back through each of Ben's seasons since entering the league in 2004. No TE group ever hit 85 catches, and often they fell well short. Combined with Smith-Schuster, this has put a squeeze on Brown's production, right?
That's what I thought. Then I noticed the four-time defending WR fantasy scoring champ is on pace for 224 targets. That would be an NFL record, exceeding Rob Moore's 208 in 1997. So it's not as if Brown is getting game-planned out of a primary role. He's simply not capitalizing on the opportunities. His fault? I don't have the full perspective to know. Welcoming your input on this. My sense is that while he's not a #1 caliber fantasy WR (as most of you know from my warnings this summer), there's room for improvement. Brown is a defense-proof talent who, if healthy, will finish this season in the top 4-8 range.
On the flip side, Ryan Fitzpatrick salvaged another great fantasy day after looking like "Bad Fitz" early on. He's the first NFL with three straight 400-yard games. This is obviously the best receiving corps he's ever thrown to (yes, better than Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker). While next week's contest in Chicago makes him a riskier QB1, he'll be throwing enough to keep fantasy managers entertained at worst, and pleasantly surprised at best. And yes, that means he's a shoo-in (in my opinion) to keep Jameis Winston on the sidelines.
If you're leaning on DeSean Jackson, why? His WR1 start to the season is a mirage. Sell high while you can. As I wrote this summer, Mike Evans will be #1 and Chris Godwin will be #2.
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Next up, some recommended free agent acquisitions who *should* be available in your league.
QB Ryan Tannehill (92% Available in ESPN Leagues) -- Through three games, Tannehill has scored more fantasy points than Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Andrew Luck. We know fantasy sports is not easy -- that outliers are hitting us in the face every week. And Miami's late-season schedule will be tougher than its early-season matchups. But Tannehill should be rostered by a lot more managers.
QB Josh Rosen (99% Available) -- The third rookie QB to take over this year, Rosen probably will be a work-in-progress for the foreseeable future. That said, you two-QB leaguers should keep an eye on Weeks 10-13, when he'll face the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, and Packers. It's fair to believe he'll be a QB2 in most/all of those contests.
QB Josh Allen (98% Available) -- He was also 98% available last Tuesday . . . before his shocking blow-up in Minnesota. The real 2018 version of Josh Allen will be a QB2, though he's a versatile enough player to pull off some low-end QB1 performances before the year's up.
RB Chris Ivory (95% Available) -- Should be obvious at this point. LeSean McCoy is the same huge risk he was over the summer, while Marcus Murphy isn't ready to take over a backfield. If he earns more starts, Ivory offers RB2/3 appeal at a bargain price.
RB Nick Chubb (80% Available) -- Deep bench? You can afford to roster the rookie Brown back, who's one Carlos Hyde injury away from earning 14+ touches a game. Chubb will get some run this season regardless.
WR Tyler Boyd (76% Available) -- Certainly worth a flyer.
WR Calvin Ridley (59% Available) -- Most definitely worth a flyer. It boggles the mind that guys like Josh Doctson (53%) are on more fantasy teams than Boyd or Ridley.
TE Tyler Eifert (54% Available) -- Managers in 12% of leagues have dumped Eifert in the past week. Makes no sense. In a top-heavy position where many of us will take points however we can get them, Eifert offers mid-range TE1 value whenever he's on the field. That "whenever" is the key. But you're not signing him to a five-year contract (let Cincy do that). His upside is as good as any top 6-16 TE, and if A.J. Green misses time, his stock will pop.
TE Greg Olsen (39% Available) -- People are bailing on Olsen despite the fact he could return in the next 2-3 weeks. As with Eifert, this doesn't need to be a marriage. Pick him up, stash him, and start him when healthy for near-automatic QB1 production.
Antonio Brown is the 11th highest scoring fantasy WR, wedged between Calvin Ridley and Kenny Golladay. JuJu Smith-Schuster's continued ascension has a lot to do with this. Less obvious is Big Ben's rising dependence on tight ends. Jesse James and Vance McDonald are on pace for a combined 85 receptions. When factoring in Xavier Grimble, last year's Pittsburgh TEs had only 62. In 2016, 68. I looked back through each of Ben's seasons since entering the league in 2004. No TE group ever hit 85 catches, and often they fell well short. Combined with Smith-Schuster, this has put a squeeze on Brown's production, right?
That's what I thought. Then I noticed the four-time defending WR fantasy scoring champ is on pace for 224 targets. That would be an NFL record, exceeding Rob Moore's 208 in 1997. So it's not as if Brown is getting game-planned out of a primary role. He's simply not capitalizing on the opportunities. His fault? I don't have the full perspective to know. Welcoming your input on this. My sense is that while he's not a #1 caliber fantasy WR (as most of you know from my warnings this summer), there's room for improvement. Brown is a defense-proof talent who, if healthy, will finish this season in the top 4-8 range.
On the flip side, Ryan Fitzpatrick salvaged another great fantasy day after looking like "Bad Fitz" early on. He's the first NFL with three straight 400-yard games. This is obviously the best receiving corps he's ever thrown to (yes, better than Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker). While next week's contest in Chicago makes him a riskier QB1, he'll be throwing enough to keep fantasy managers entertained at worst, and pleasantly surprised at best. And yes, that means he's a shoo-in (in my opinion) to keep Jameis Winston on the sidelines.
If you're leaning on DeSean Jackson, why? His WR1 start to the season is a mirage. Sell high while you can. As I wrote this summer, Mike Evans will be #1 and Chris Godwin will be #2.
--
Next up, some recommended free agent acquisitions who *should* be available in your league.
QB Ryan Tannehill (92% Available in ESPN Leagues) -- Through three games, Tannehill has scored more fantasy points than Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Andrew Luck. We know fantasy sports is not easy -- that outliers are hitting us in the face every week. And Miami's late-season schedule will be tougher than its early-season matchups. But Tannehill should be rostered by a lot more managers.
QB Josh Rosen (99% Available) -- The third rookie QB to take over this year, Rosen probably will be a work-in-progress for the foreseeable future. That said, you two-QB leaguers should keep an eye on Weeks 10-13, when he'll face the Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, and Packers. It's fair to believe he'll be a QB2 in most/all of those contests.
QB Josh Allen (98% Available) -- He was also 98% available last Tuesday . . . before his shocking blow-up in Minnesota. The real 2018 version of Josh Allen will be a QB2, though he's a versatile enough player to pull off some low-end QB1 performances before the year's up.
RB Chris Ivory (95% Available) -- Should be obvious at this point. LeSean McCoy is the same huge risk he was over the summer, while Marcus Murphy isn't ready to take over a backfield. If he earns more starts, Ivory offers RB2/3 appeal at a bargain price.
RB Nick Chubb (80% Available) -- Deep bench? You can afford to roster the rookie Brown back, who's one Carlos Hyde injury away from earning 14+ touches a game. Chubb will get some run this season regardless.
WR Tyler Boyd (76% Available) -- Certainly worth a flyer.
WR Calvin Ridley (59% Available) -- Most definitely worth a flyer. It boggles the mind that guys like Josh Doctson (53%) are on more fantasy teams than Boyd or Ridley.
TE Tyler Eifert (54% Available) -- Managers in 12% of leagues have dumped Eifert in the past week. Makes no sense. In a top-heavy position where many of us will take points however we can get them, Eifert offers mid-range TE1 value whenever he's on the field. That "whenever" is the key. But you're not signing him to a five-year contract (let Cincy do that). His upside is as good as any top 6-16 TE, and if A.J. Green misses time, his stock will pop.
TE Greg Olsen (39% Available) -- People are bailing on Olsen despite the fact he could return in the next 2-3 weeks. As with Eifert, this doesn't need to be a marriage. Pick him up, stash him, and start him when healthy for near-automatic QB1 production.