Tomorrow is Sunday, so it's time to bring back the ubiquitous "Bargains and Busts" column. There are, what, 12,000 of these around the Internet? So what makes FF4W's different than most of the notable ones?
Well, that's at the core of why I started this blog. You'll never hear me suggest starting an in-his-prime Aaron Rodgers or benching a post-prime Brandon LaFell. If something is true 80% of the time, why claim it?
The more interesting angle -- and the one more useful for self-respecting fantasy managers -- is proposing something that's true 20% of the time. It's picking up and starting a QB who's available in 94% of ESPN leagues (yes, there's one of those this week). It's warning against starting two high-end RB2s. Essentially, it's all about staking a competitive advantage over unsuspecting opponents in a league where nearly everyone supposedly has access to the same information.
Season after season, this site aims to give you that competitive advantage, from the early days of training camp to the final lineup decisions of championship week. And season after season, we're judged based on whether our contrarian advice is more valuable than most sites' generic advice.
So let's kick off the first weekend of the 2018 season with a barrage of bargains and busts -- most of them highly contrarian -- based on Fantasy Pros' composite of 107 experts.
Ryan Tannehill (#26 ranked QB) is my favorite "What am I, crazy?" Week 1 selections. I believe in him so much that yesterday I picked him up in my 14-team Premier Fantasy League and am starting him against longtime fearsome FF4W reader Doug Harrison. Surely Doug is thrilled with this decision. But he'll soon be crying orange and aqua green tears. Tannehill is facing a beatable Tennessee D at home. No Jarvis Landry this year? No problem. Even if DeVante Parker sits, Miami's "franchise" QB will be throwing plenty to Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson, Mike Gesicki, and Kenny Drake. 6% of fantasy leagues are rostering Tannehill. That will more than triple after this weekend.
I also like Derek Carr (#28 QB) despite the tough matchup and the Raiders' seemingly dysfunctional offseason/preseason. As long as he's throwing to Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson, and as long as their defense remains sub-par, he'll be a QB1 / mid-range QB2 all year long.
On the flip side, last year's #1 fantasy QB faces a fairly tough Denver D on the road in what is likely to be a statement game for the retooled Broncos. Give Russell Wilson (#9 QB) all the credit for manufacturing fantasy points like few others can. But I'm completely ignoring him in DFS and am seeking higher-upside options at QB in regular leagues. In other words, I'd bet on Tannehill over Wilson this week. And don't let me hear the end of it if I'm wrong.
At RB, it's only a matter of time before Kerryon Johnson (#39 RB) becomes the 1A back in Detroit. Could it be this week? If you don't have an RB3+ handy, Johnson's a great bet for top-30 production and a worthwhile dart throw for RB2 numbers. It'll all come down to touches for the rookie. So understand your roster situation first. Mike Gillislee (#52 RB) and C.J. Anderson (#53 RB) arguably have even greater upside -- and higher floors -- at cheaper values. It really is ridiculous that both of these guys are ranked outside the top 50 this week.
On the flip side, Kareem Hunt played as well as anyone could have imagined last season en route to the fourth most RB fantasy points. He's ranked 8th at his position this week. While it's hard to imagine him flopping, he won't be an RB1. Meanwhile, LeSean McCoy (#14 RB) and Jordan Howard (#15 RB) are risky starts if you're using them as RB2s. Both should earn 18+ touches, yet neither is a great bet to score. Baltimore should keep Buffalo in check, while Green Bay's run D (top-10 in 2017) is underrated.
And while I won't officially include this in my Week 1 tally, a quick warning about the already-low-ranked Alfred Morris (#43 RB). Many of you are asking whether to start him on the road against Minnesota. Don't let one preseason game against the (non-)mighty Colts sway you. He's useful only because San Francisco's thin at running back. Rarely will he be worth starting. Consider that as you (wisely) try to sell high before tomorrow's contest.
At wide receiver, is Tre'Quan Smith ready to contribute? He's not even starting in New Orleans. Yet with Cameron Meredith's early-season role a question mark, you deep-leaguers should absolutely roster the rookie, who's available in 98% of ESPN leagues. I'd gladly roll the dice on him crushing his #79 Week 1 ranking. Angling sharply upward, Devin Funchess (#39 WR) is undervalued as his team's #1 receiver. I'm eyeing WR3+ production tomorrow.
On the flip side, most WR1s and WR2s either have favorable matchups or are staring at double-digit targets. The one guy who concerns me is Allen Robinson. Buying into him Week 1 means looking beyond his long recovery from a season-ending ACL injury and ignoring the fact that his per-game numbers in 2014 and 2016 barely put him on the WR3/4 map. It means embracing Mitch Trubisky as a solid starting QB. And so on.
At TE, take a flyer on rookie Mike Gesicki (#23 TE) if you don't have a TE1 at your disposal. While he might be a year away from fantasy relevance, his upside is too good to ignore if your "best" option is, say, the 15th-ranked Jared Cook. And who's that flying under everyone's radar? Luke Willson (#31 TE), who's now healthy and ready to replace Eric Ebron as Matthew Stafford's primary tight end weapon.
On the flip side, Jordan Reed must become the Jordan Reed of old to match or exceed his #9 Week 1 ranking. That's too big a risk for me. The same goes for Austin Seferian-Jenkings (#14 TE), who won't clear 30 years on three catches.
Well, that's at the core of why I started this blog. You'll never hear me suggest starting an in-his-prime Aaron Rodgers or benching a post-prime Brandon LaFell. If something is true 80% of the time, why claim it?
The more interesting angle -- and the one more useful for self-respecting fantasy managers -- is proposing something that's true 20% of the time. It's picking up and starting a QB who's available in 94% of ESPN leagues (yes, there's one of those this week). It's warning against starting two high-end RB2s. Essentially, it's all about staking a competitive advantage over unsuspecting opponents in a league where nearly everyone supposedly has access to the same information.
Season after season, this site aims to give you that competitive advantage, from the early days of training camp to the final lineup decisions of championship week. And season after season, we're judged based on whether our contrarian advice is more valuable than most sites' generic advice.
So let's kick off the first weekend of the 2018 season with a barrage of bargains and busts -- most of them highly contrarian -- based on Fantasy Pros' composite of 107 experts.
Ryan Tannehill (#26 ranked QB) is my favorite "What am I, crazy?" Week 1 selections. I believe in him so much that yesterday I picked him up in my 14-team Premier Fantasy League and am starting him against longtime fearsome FF4W reader Doug Harrison. Surely Doug is thrilled with this decision. But he'll soon be crying orange and aqua green tears. Tannehill is facing a beatable Tennessee D at home. No Jarvis Landry this year? No problem. Even if DeVante Parker sits, Miami's "franchise" QB will be throwing plenty to Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, Albert Wilson, Mike Gesicki, and Kenny Drake. 6% of fantasy leagues are rostering Tannehill. That will more than triple after this weekend.
I also like Derek Carr (#28 QB) despite the tough matchup and the Raiders' seemingly dysfunctional offseason/preseason. As long as he's throwing to Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson, and as long as their defense remains sub-par, he'll be a QB1 / mid-range QB2 all year long.
On the flip side, last year's #1 fantasy QB faces a fairly tough Denver D on the road in what is likely to be a statement game for the retooled Broncos. Give Russell Wilson (#9 QB) all the credit for manufacturing fantasy points like few others can. But I'm completely ignoring him in DFS and am seeking higher-upside options at QB in regular leagues. In other words, I'd bet on Tannehill over Wilson this week. And don't let me hear the end of it if I'm wrong.
At RB, it's only a matter of time before Kerryon Johnson (#39 RB) becomes the 1A back in Detroit. Could it be this week? If you don't have an RB3+ handy, Johnson's a great bet for top-30 production and a worthwhile dart throw for RB2 numbers. It'll all come down to touches for the rookie. So understand your roster situation first. Mike Gillislee (#52 RB) and C.J. Anderson (#53 RB) arguably have even greater upside -- and higher floors -- at cheaper values. It really is ridiculous that both of these guys are ranked outside the top 50 this week.
On the flip side, Kareem Hunt played as well as anyone could have imagined last season en route to the fourth most RB fantasy points. He's ranked 8th at his position this week. While it's hard to imagine him flopping, he won't be an RB1. Meanwhile, LeSean McCoy (#14 RB) and Jordan Howard (#15 RB) are risky starts if you're using them as RB2s. Both should earn 18+ touches, yet neither is a great bet to score. Baltimore should keep Buffalo in check, while Green Bay's run D (top-10 in 2017) is underrated.
And while I won't officially include this in my Week 1 tally, a quick warning about the already-low-ranked Alfred Morris (#43 RB). Many of you are asking whether to start him on the road against Minnesota. Don't let one preseason game against the (non-)mighty Colts sway you. He's useful only because San Francisco's thin at running back. Rarely will he be worth starting. Consider that as you (wisely) try to sell high before tomorrow's contest.
At wide receiver, is Tre'Quan Smith ready to contribute? He's not even starting in New Orleans. Yet with Cameron Meredith's early-season role a question mark, you deep-leaguers should absolutely roster the rookie, who's available in 98% of ESPN leagues. I'd gladly roll the dice on him crushing his #79 Week 1 ranking. Angling sharply upward, Devin Funchess (#39 WR) is undervalued as his team's #1 receiver. I'm eyeing WR3+ production tomorrow.
On the flip side, most WR1s and WR2s either have favorable matchups or are staring at double-digit targets. The one guy who concerns me is Allen Robinson. Buying into him Week 1 means looking beyond his long recovery from a season-ending ACL injury and ignoring the fact that his per-game numbers in 2014 and 2016 barely put him on the WR3/4 map. It means embracing Mitch Trubisky as a solid starting QB. And so on.
At TE, take a flyer on rookie Mike Gesicki (#23 TE) if you don't have a TE1 at your disposal. While he might be a year away from fantasy relevance, his upside is too good to ignore if your "best" option is, say, the 15th-ranked Jared Cook. And who's that flying under everyone's radar? Luke Willson (#31 TE), who's now healthy and ready to replace Eric Ebron as Matthew Stafford's primary tight end weapon.
On the flip side, Jordan Reed must become the Jordan Reed of old to match or exceed his #9 Week 1 ranking. That's too big a risk for me. The same goes for Austin Seferian-Jenkings (#14 TE), who won't clear 30 years on three catches.