Greg Olsen will be out for a while. Ian Thomas is expected to be the next man up. Hard to know whether Thomas will comparable to last year's Ed Dickson. But what we do know is that Olsen is almost worthless in all re-draft leagues. While he could return later this season, do you really want to burn a roster spot for months on a guy who might not return -- and even if he does, might not even be a top-8 TE?
Carolina's in a tough spot. This will mark two straight busted years for Olsen, who will be 34 1/2 next September and who recently signed a contract giving him over $12 million guaranteed. Fantasy-wise, Cam Newton takes a hit, and Devin Funchess gets a boost. I'd absolutely trade for Funchess as a WR2/3, knowing my opponent might not view him as better than a WR3/4.
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We keep seeing questions about whether to trade James Conner, and if so, what we should demand in return. A small handful of you are asking what I think is the more interesting and challenging question: Should you trade for Le'Veon Bell, and if so, what should we offer?
I'd find it highly doubtful Bell sits the entire season, though stranger things have happened. And I'd find it highly doubtful that a potential playoff-bound Steelers would bench him permanently if he did return (though stranger things have happened). My thinking is that if Pittsburgh could welcome Martavis Bryant back last year, surely they wouldn't penalize their organization and their fans by sitting their all-world back.
Look, you all know how hard I've pushed Conner since July. I drafted him in both my leagues. He's a very good back. But he's not at Bell's level. And I know some of you believe Bell is a product of Pittsburgh's system, and that he's entirely replaceable within that system. I disagree. Bell continues to have value as a speculative add. Perhaps he'd split time with Conner if he returns. Or maybe he'd dominate touches. But I feel strongly that he wouldn't ride the pine.
If you have Conner, you can try to trade him. If you can't get good value, try the inverse: offer a trade for Bell. I'd gladly give up someone like Golden Tate for him, or even someone like Alex Collins if I were comfortable at RB. In many leagues, Bell is available for the taking for the right price. And I'd rather have Conner and Bell than neither of them.
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It's fairly easy to look at Jared Cook's huge MNF performance and think, "Well, of course he's going to be a TE1 this season." It reminded me of the only other mind-blowing performance of his 10-year career: a 7/141/2 line in Week 1 of the 2013 season. The following day I packaged Cook, Marques Colston (a WR3) and Daryl Richardson (a throwaway RB coming off an impressive Week 1 performance) for a package that included Dez Bryant: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2013/09/sell-high-on-jared-cook.html.
While I clearly got a steal, if you think back on that time, Cook looked like he'd finally put it all together -- that all that NFL potential was ready to translate into elite TE numbers. But my warning on this blog five years ago yesterday was simple: "When a good player performs beyond expectations, it's often time to sell high."
Heading into Week 2, Cook is the #1 fantasy scoring TE. Not only will he be unable to sustain this, but it's doubtful he'll be an every-other-week starter. For him to be elite or near-elite, Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson would need to continue posting WR6/7/8 production. It doesn't add up.
I also did some digging on why Cook's ceiling is capped year after year. It comes down to red-zone looks. Since his 2009 rookie campaign he's caught six balls (on 25 targets) inside the 10-yard line. In the past three years he's caught only one pass inside the opposing 10. He's been consistently outside the top 50 TEs in fantasy production not only inside the opposing 10, but also the opposing 20. Monday was no different, as he didn't get any looks that deep into Rams territory.
Receptions and yardage keep guys in the TE1 conversation. But they're not always enough. Unless Cook suddenly becomes a semi-decent red-zone target, he's likely looking at TE2 production the rest of the way. Sell high. Now.
Carolina's in a tough spot. This will mark two straight busted years for Olsen, who will be 34 1/2 next September and who recently signed a contract giving him over $12 million guaranteed. Fantasy-wise, Cam Newton takes a hit, and Devin Funchess gets a boost. I'd absolutely trade for Funchess as a WR2/3, knowing my opponent might not view him as better than a WR3/4.
--
We keep seeing questions about whether to trade James Conner, and if so, what we should demand in return. A small handful of you are asking what I think is the more interesting and challenging question: Should you trade for Le'Veon Bell, and if so, what should we offer?
I'd find it highly doubtful Bell sits the entire season, though stranger things have happened. And I'd find it highly doubtful that a potential playoff-bound Steelers would bench him permanently if he did return (though stranger things have happened). My thinking is that if Pittsburgh could welcome Martavis Bryant back last year, surely they wouldn't penalize their organization and their fans by sitting their all-world back.
Look, you all know how hard I've pushed Conner since July. I drafted him in both my leagues. He's a very good back. But he's not at Bell's level. And I know some of you believe Bell is a product of Pittsburgh's system, and that he's entirely replaceable within that system. I disagree. Bell continues to have value as a speculative add. Perhaps he'd split time with Conner if he returns. Or maybe he'd dominate touches. But I feel strongly that he wouldn't ride the pine.
If you have Conner, you can try to trade him. If you can't get good value, try the inverse: offer a trade for Bell. I'd gladly give up someone like Golden Tate for him, or even someone like Alex Collins if I were comfortable at RB. In many leagues, Bell is available for the taking for the right price. And I'd rather have Conner and Bell than neither of them.
--
It's fairly easy to look at Jared Cook's huge MNF performance and think, "Well, of course he's going to be a TE1 this season." It reminded me of the only other mind-blowing performance of his 10-year career: a 7/141/2 line in Week 1 of the 2013 season. The following day I packaged Cook, Marques Colston (a WR3) and Daryl Richardson (a throwaway RB coming off an impressive Week 1 performance) for a package that included Dez Bryant: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2013/09/sell-high-on-jared-cook.html.
While I clearly got a steal, if you think back on that time, Cook looked like he'd finally put it all together -- that all that NFL potential was ready to translate into elite TE numbers. But my warning on this blog five years ago yesterday was simple: "When a good player performs beyond expectations, it's often time to sell high."
Heading into Week 2, Cook is the #1 fantasy scoring TE. Not only will he be unable to sustain this, but it's doubtful he'll be an every-other-week starter. For him to be elite or near-elite, Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson would need to continue posting WR6/7/8 production. It doesn't add up.
I also did some digging on why Cook's ceiling is capped year after year. It comes down to red-zone looks. Since his 2009 rookie campaign he's caught six balls (on 25 targets) inside the 10-yard line. In the past three years he's caught only one pass inside the opposing 10. He's been consistently outside the top 50 TEs in fantasy production not only inside the opposing 10, but also the opposing 20. Monday was no different, as he didn't get any looks that deep into Rams territory.
Receptions and yardage keep guys in the TE1 conversation. But they're not always enough. Unless Cook suddenly becomes a semi-decent red-zone target, he's likely looking at TE2 production the rest of the way. Sell high. Now.