Before getting into last night's game, we're seeing a lot of questions about guys coming off surprisingly good Week 1 performances. You're looking at players like Phillip Lindsay, Will Dissly, and Dante Pettis -- all rookies -- and wondering "Are they as good as they looked?"
Which begs the question, when the only thing you can analyze is a one-game NFL track record, how do you distinguish between a future fantasy contributor and a mere one-hit wonder?
What ever happened to Chumbawamba? Nena? Right Said Fred? I remember listening to The Escape Club's "Wild, Wild West" when it first came out and thinking "This band is gonna be huge!" A few months earlier, Guns N' Roses released their first hit, "Sweet Child o' Mine." Maybe I was just a naive kid with a bad ear for music, but how exactly did these two bands diverge so dramatically? How did one fade into commercial oblivion, while the other achieved mega-stardom (before fading into commercial oblivion)? What are the markers that separate success and sustained success?
And that's the question I keep asking myself every time I read a sit/start question concerning Lindsay, Dissly, Pettis, and any number of other largely unproven talents capable of fantasy relevance. I can't offer any good answers at this point -- only half-thoughtful hunches based on following this stuff closely. Concerning these three, at least for one game, the undrafted Lindsay parlayed a strong training camp into a co-#1 backfield role. But I'm having a tough time viewing him as a weekly fantasy starter while Royce Freeman's healthy. Dissly benefits from Seattle's dearth of reliable receivers, particularly while Doug Baldwin's sidelined; but I don't see how he finishes the year as a TE1. Pettis, on the other hand, is a legit talent who could assume a #1 receiver role later this season even when Marquise Goodwin's healthy.
But I had high hopes for Dexys Midnight Runners, so what do I know.
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Last night didn't play out "in the trenches," as I'd projected. It also wan't low-scoring, as I insisted it would be. Baltimore's loss of C.J. Mosley to start the game certainly opened things up for Cincinnati, as Andy Dalton posted an incredible four first-half TDs. If you started Dalton with confidence, you're smarter than me, though he was also awful in the second half, so let's not assume that first half will be repeated this year. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon was in and out with a knee injury but still managed 22 touches, further solidifying his bellcow status. A.J. Green did great as expected, and Tyler Boyd shockingly dominated. Was I wrong to promote John Ross over Boyd this preseason? Possibly. One of these two will be a WR4+ this season, so the next two weeks should flesh that out.
For the Ravens, as predicted, Alex Collins and Javorius Allen were fine flex options, while Joe Flacco should wind up as a high-end QB2 this week -- better than I expected, but also a reminder that his Week 1 blowout home win over the league's worst team was not a sign of things to come. While Flacco should blow away his preseason QB-33 ADP with enough strong play to keep Lamar Jackson at bay, 2-3 TD games won't be the norm. Last night Baltimore's game plan changed after trailing by as much as 21 points in the second quarter. Flacco needed 55 passes (third most of his career) to be roughly a top 14-16 Week 2 QB.
So don't overreact to the numbers; recognize the context. He has the tools to be a QB2, but he's no better than a matchup-based streamer.
Which begs the question, when the only thing you can analyze is a one-game NFL track record, how do you distinguish between a future fantasy contributor and a mere one-hit wonder?
What ever happened to Chumbawamba? Nena? Right Said Fred? I remember listening to The Escape Club's "Wild, Wild West" when it first came out and thinking "This band is gonna be huge!" A few months earlier, Guns N' Roses released their first hit, "Sweet Child o' Mine." Maybe I was just a naive kid with a bad ear for music, but how exactly did these two bands diverge so dramatically? How did one fade into commercial oblivion, while the other achieved mega-stardom (before fading into commercial oblivion)? What are the markers that separate success and sustained success?
And that's the question I keep asking myself every time I read a sit/start question concerning Lindsay, Dissly, Pettis, and any number of other largely unproven talents capable of fantasy relevance. I can't offer any good answers at this point -- only half-thoughtful hunches based on following this stuff closely. Concerning these three, at least for one game, the undrafted Lindsay parlayed a strong training camp into a co-#1 backfield role. But I'm having a tough time viewing him as a weekly fantasy starter while Royce Freeman's healthy. Dissly benefits from Seattle's dearth of reliable receivers, particularly while Doug Baldwin's sidelined; but I don't see how he finishes the year as a TE1. Pettis, on the other hand, is a legit talent who could assume a #1 receiver role later this season even when Marquise Goodwin's healthy.
But I had high hopes for Dexys Midnight Runners, so what do I know.
--
Last night didn't play out "in the trenches," as I'd projected. It also wan't low-scoring, as I insisted it would be. Baltimore's loss of C.J. Mosley to start the game certainly opened things up for Cincinnati, as Andy Dalton posted an incredible four first-half TDs. If you started Dalton with confidence, you're smarter than me, though he was also awful in the second half, so let's not assume that first half will be repeated this year. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon was in and out with a knee injury but still managed 22 touches, further solidifying his bellcow status. A.J. Green did great as expected, and Tyler Boyd shockingly dominated. Was I wrong to promote John Ross over Boyd this preseason? Possibly. One of these two will be a WR4+ this season, so the next two weeks should flesh that out.
For the Ravens, as predicted, Alex Collins and Javorius Allen were fine flex options, while Joe Flacco should wind up as a high-end QB2 this week -- better than I expected, but also a reminder that his Week 1 blowout home win over the league's worst team was not a sign of things to come. While Flacco should blow away his preseason QB-33 ADP with enough strong play to keep Lamar Jackson at bay, 2-3 TD games won't be the norm. Last night Baltimore's game plan changed after trailing by as much as 21 points in the second quarter. Flacco needed 55 passes (third most of his career) to be roughly a top 14-16 Week 2 QB.
So don't overreact to the numbers; recognize the context. He has the tools to be a QB2, but he's no better than a matchup-based streamer.