Average draft positions (ADPs) are more "societal phenomenon" than "accurate prediction." What makes so many people agree on the same flawed logic, or disregard credible logic?
Sony Michel is a case in point. I had queued up a "contrarian prediction" about the rookie a few days before it was announced he'd undergo knee surgery on August 4. In fact, a week before that news hit (July 29), I wrote a column warning about three overrated RBs, including Michel. But I held back on posting the contrarian prediction after the August 4 announcement because, well, by then it seemed obvious.
But let's look at what's happened. On August 3, Michel's ADP was 57 and his RB ADP was 24. So in online draft rooms across the fantasy universe, Michel's name was, on average, the 57th guy taken and the 24th RB snagged. Three weeks later, with Jeremy Hill showing well in practice and preseason games, Michel's overall ADP (62) had barely moved, while his RB ADP was a shockingly good 30.
It's now been almost five weeks since his surgery announcement. His overall and RB ADPs are 78 and 32, respectively. So yes, he's now being drafted a couple rounds later than he was five weeks ago. But he's dropped only eight RB spots. The fantasy universe believes the rookie is still a flex option.
I was ready to scrap this post on August 5, but have kept it in "draft" in case he didn't drop enough. And to be clear, he hasn't, as nearly everyone's overlooking the big picture. Michel's "bone-on-bone" knee condition is one of many yellow flags. As I wrote in July, he was never a bellcow in college, so no one knows whether he can handle a large workload. He also averaged only 16 catches per season, reeling in merely nine passes his senior year. Additionally, he fumbled 12 times in college -- once every 55 touches.
Michel has been dropping precipitously on my spreadsheet and now sits at #60 positionally. Yet only one of 115 experts places him outside the top 50, and most still rank him as an RB2/3. That's a disservice to fantasy managers everywhere. Running behind James White and Rex Burkhead -- and possibly Jeremy Hill -- Michel won't be a top-50 RB.
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What do you all think about Le'Veon Bell? Will he return to practice this week? Will he play Week 1? If James Conner starts and falls flat, Bell's bargaining hand strengthens. If Conner plays well, Bell -- and those who drafted Bell -- are in a bit of trouble, at least in the short term. No one should doubt that Bell's more talented. But he also needed 406 touches last year to net 342 points. Alvin Kamara earned 320 with less than half the touches. A 300-touch Bell might not be a top-7 RB.
Meanwhile, Conner's available in 76% of ESPN leagues. For a first-round insurance policy, he still comes cheap.
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Sony Michel is a case in point. I had queued up a "contrarian prediction" about the rookie a few days before it was announced he'd undergo knee surgery on August 4. In fact, a week before that news hit (July 29), I wrote a column warning about three overrated RBs, including Michel. But I held back on posting the contrarian prediction after the August 4 announcement because, well, by then it seemed obvious.
But let's look at what's happened. On August 3, Michel's ADP was 57 and his RB ADP was 24. So in online draft rooms across the fantasy universe, Michel's name was, on average, the 57th guy taken and the 24th RB snagged. Three weeks later, with Jeremy Hill showing well in practice and preseason games, Michel's overall ADP (62) had barely moved, while his RB ADP was a shockingly good 30.
It's now been almost five weeks since his surgery announcement. His overall and RB ADPs are 78 and 32, respectively. So yes, he's now being drafted a couple rounds later than he was five weeks ago. But he's dropped only eight RB spots. The fantasy universe believes the rookie is still a flex option.
I was ready to scrap this post on August 5, but have kept it in "draft" in case he didn't drop enough. And to be clear, he hasn't, as nearly everyone's overlooking the big picture. Michel's "bone-on-bone" knee condition is one of many yellow flags. As I wrote in July, he was never a bellcow in college, so no one knows whether he can handle a large workload. He also averaged only 16 catches per season, reeling in merely nine passes his senior year. Additionally, he fumbled 12 times in college -- once every 55 touches.
Michel has been dropping precipitously on my spreadsheet and now sits at #60 positionally. Yet only one of 115 experts places him outside the top 50, and most still rank him as an RB2/3. That's a disservice to fantasy managers everywhere. Running behind James White and Rex Burkhead -- and possibly Jeremy Hill -- Michel won't be a top-50 RB.
--
What do you all think about Le'Veon Bell? Will he return to practice this week? Will he play Week 1? If James Conner starts and falls flat, Bell's bargaining hand strengthens. If Conner plays well, Bell -- and those who drafted Bell -- are in a bit of trouble, at least in the short term. No one should doubt that Bell's more talented. But he also needed 406 touches last year to net 342 points. Alvin Kamara earned 320 with less than half the touches. A 300-touch Bell might not be a top-7 RB.
Meanwhile, Conner's available in 76% of ESPN leagues. For a first-round insurance policy, he still comes cheap.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota