Before jumping into the Week 2 “Bargains and Busts” column, a few words on Joe Mixon, whose minor knee surgery opens the door for Gio Bernard (available in 61% of ESPN leagues). A former starter and fantastic passing-game RB, the 26-year-old Bernard faces two sizable obstacles to RB2+ relevance.
First, Cincy's next two contests are in Carolina and in Atlanta -- two top-10 run D's last year. Second, rookie Mark Walton is expected to be activated. Walton was an impressive, yet injury-prone, college back with similarly impressive passing-game chops. Even if Bernard manages 20 touches, he'll be no better than a top 20-24 RB. More realistically he's looking at no more than 16 touches in what could be a "hot-hand" backfield.
If you already have Bernard and aren't desperate for an RB3, sell high. Mixon's expected back in three weeks. Even if his return is delayed by a week or two, Bernard is a prototypical example of a hot free agent pickup whose actual value falls short of his perceived value.
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The Week 2 bargains and busts kick off with this week’s consensus (based on 88 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros) 32nd-ranked QB Josh Allen. Allen replaced a completely overmatched Nathan Paterman mid-game last week, putting up respectable numbers for a rookie in his NFL debut against a tough Ravens D. Buffalo won’t have the luxury of kicking field goals against a high-powered Chargers offense this week. So I like Allen comfortably outperforming expectations, making him a clear-cut starter in two-QB leagues. Sam Darnold (26th) and Nick Foles (25th) also will comfortable exceed expectations against Miami and Tampa Bay, respectively. And Case Keenum (17th) is headed toward a surprising QB1 day against Oakland.
On the flip side, I don’t see the advantage of starting Deshaun Watson (4th) on the road against an underrated Tennessee D. That said, be prepared to buy low on Houston’s franchise QB after Sunday; his next four games will be against the Giants, Colts, Cowboys, and Bills.
In what should be at least a semi-comfortable win for the Chargers, Austin Ekeler (41st ranked RB) is a steal with strong RB3 potential, while Matt Breida (37th) is worth a flier at home against a Lions defense that let the Jets run all over them Monday night.
On the flip side, Kenyan Drake (14th) is too ambitiously valued heading into Jets country. While I continue to like him as an RB2 this season, the potentially unfavorable matchup and Frank Gore’s usage make Drake an RB3 at best. I’m also once again concerned with Kareem Hunt (9th), whom experts are valuing based on last year’s stats, not on this year’s realistic potential. And finally, David Johnson (4th) won’t be an RB1 this week; the home Rams will bottle him up and force Sam Bradford to throw, which will only compound the Cardinals’ misery, thereby rendering Johnson largely useless by midway through the third quarter.
At wideout, Dante Pettis (55th) is a huge bargain even if Marquise Goodwin plays: a top-45 WR in that scenario, and a clear-cut WR2/3 if Goodwin sits. Ranked 50th this week, Kelvin Benjamin gets a double-reprieve thanks to a matchup against the secondary-less Chargers and Nathan Peterman getting benched. I’d absolutely roll the dice on a double-digit fantasy day. On the other side of the ball, Mike Williams (47th) is also worth a flyer against the hapless Bills.
On the flip side, Larry Fitzgerald remains a major concern until Arizona improves its QB situation. Sam Bradford was never going to be the answer. This week’s consensus 14th ranked WR, Fitz is a WR3 at best.
At tight end, Jonnu Smith (17th) replaced Delanie Walker in Tennessee and could immediately become the #3 aerial target. A boom-bust option in his first serious NFL test (the first time he'll start without sharing the field with Walker), Smith has a TE2 floor and a mid-range TE1 ceiling. And while I won't officially promote Austin Hooper (25th) this week, a reminder that you all can heap plenty of scorn on me if he struggles this month. I continue to believe in him and this Atlanta offense; a road loss to Philly is no indicator of what's to come.
On the flip side, Jack Doyle (8th) is too risky as a TE1. Today is the day to sell high. And also unofficially, if you haven't sold high on Jared Cook (11th) yet, you're running out of time.
First, Cincy's next two contests are in Carolina and in Atlanta -- two top-10 run D's last year. Second, rookie Mark Walton is expected to be activated. Walton was an impressive, yet injury-prone, college back with similarly impressive passing-game chops. Even if Bernard manages 20 touches, he'll be no better than a top 20-24 RB. More realistically he's looking at no more than 16 touches in what could be a "hot-hand" backfield.
If you already have Bernard and aren't desperate for an RB3, sell high. Mixon's expected back in three weeks. Even if his return is delayed by a week or two, Bernard is a prototypical example of a hot free agent pickup whose actual value falls short of his perceived value.
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The Week 2 bargains and busts kick off with this week’s consensus (based on 88 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros) 32nd-ranked QB Josh Allen. Allen replaced a completely overmatched Nathan Paterman mid-game last week, putting up respectable numbers for a rookie in his NFL debut against a tough Ravens D. Buffalo won’t have the luxury of kicking field goals against a high-powered Chargers offense this week. So I like Allen comfortably outperforming expectations, making him a clear-cut starter in two-QB leagues. Sam Darnold (26th) and Nick Foles (25th) also will comfortable exceed expectations against Miami and Tampa Bay, respectively. And Case Keenum (17th) is headed toward a surprising QB1 day against Oakland.
On the flip side, I don’t see the advantage of starting Deshaun Watson (4th) on the road against an underrated Tennessee D. That said, be prepared to buy low on Houston’s franchise QB after Sunday; his next four games will be against the Giants, Colts, Cowboys, and Bills.
In what should be at least a semi-comfortable win for the Chargers, Austin Ekeler (41st ranked RB) is a steal with strong RB3 potential, while Matt Breida (37th) is worth a flier at home against a Lions defense that let the Jets run all over them Monday night.
On the flip side, Kenyan Drake (14th) is too ambitiously valued heading into Jets country. While I continue to like him as an RB2 this season, the potentially unfavorable matchup and Frank Gore’s usage make Drake an RB3 at best. I’m also once again concerned with Kareem Hunt (9th), whom experts are valuing based on last year’s stats, not on this year’s realistic potential. And finally, David Johnson (4th) won’t be an RB1 this week; the home Rams will bottle him up and force Sam Bradford to throw, which will only compound the Cardinals’ misery, thereby rendering Johnson largely useless by midway through the third quarter.
At wideout, Dante Pettis (55th) is a huge bargain even if Marquise Goodwin plays: a top-45 WR in that scenario, and a clear-cut WR2/3 if Goodwin sits. Ranked 50th this week, Kelvin Benjamin gets a double-reprieve thanks to a matchup against the secondary-less Chargers and Nathan Peterman getting benched. I’d absolutely roll the dice on a double-digit fantasy day. On the other side of the ball, Mike Williams (47th) is also worth a flyer against the hapless Bills.
On the flip side, Larry Fitzgerald remains a major concern until Arizona improves its QB situation. Sam Bradford was never going to be the answer. This week’s consensus 14th ranked WR, Fitz is a WR3 at best.
At tight end, Jonnu Smith (17th) replaced Delanie Walker in Tennessee and could immediately become the #3 aerial target. A boom-bust option in his first serious NFL test (the first time he'll start without sharing the field with Walker), Smith has a TE2 floor and a mid-range TE1 ceiling. And while I won't officially promote Austin Hooper (25th) this week, a reminder that you all can heap plenty of scorn on me if he struggles this month. I continue to believe in him and this Atlanta offense; a road loss to Philly is no indicator of what's to come.
On the flip side, Jack Doyle (8th) is too risky as a TE1. Today is the day to sell high. And also unofficially, if you haven't sold high on Jared Cook (11th) yet, you're running out of time.