David Johnson: back injury. DeAndre Hopkins: foot injury. Aaron Rodgers: knee injury. And so on, and so on. And we're not even in Week 2.
This is why I never feel cocky after a draft. With few exceptions (for example, chronically ailing players or players whose bodies are clearly breaking down), injuries are unpredictable. If Rodgers had been knocked out for the year last weekend, the ripple effects would have been tremendous: major downgrades to Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, and Jimmy Graham; minor downgrades to Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, and Ty Montgomery; and a suddenly relevant DeShone Kizer making noise in two-QB leagues.
Take Greg Olsen's injury: Ian Thomas becomes a TE name to watch in deep leagues, while Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey could see more looks. Or Delanie Walker getting knocked out for the year: Jonnu Smith now has strong low-end TE1 potential, while Corey Davis (if he can stay healthy) gets a nice boost.
We've already reached a point in the season where "stock up / stock down" computations are so complex and far-reaching that it would take 3,000 words or more each day to make sense of them. For now, let's not panic about every little news item. Don't sell low on nicked-up dominant players who, when healthy, can help you win a title. Todd Gurley could be lost for the year next game, but there's no way to predict it. So let's keep taking it day by day, week by week, and not conflating one-off minor injuries with the kinds that force us into dramatic roster moves.
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In head-to-head matchups, the Ravens and Bengals have each won 22 games. What does that tell us about tonight's contest? Absolutely nothing.
The visiting Ravens likely will lead with their run attack. After two straight seasons of being among the least run-friendly teams (25th and 30th in 2015 and 2016), they finally had the personnel in 2017 to pound the ball, culminating in the seventh most attempts in the NFL. Alex Collins has returned as Baltimore's lead back and should be fine as, at minimum, a flex option. There's no Kenneth Dixon (Injured Reserve), so Javorius Allen will be a solid flex PPR play in deeper leagues. I'm expecting 30+ touches between these two.
In the air, I'm still waiting for things to shake out. Last week's 47-3 trampling of Buffalo tells us little about how Baltimore's revamped receiving corps will play together. Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead are all new Ravens. The three should combine for about 2,500+ yards and maybe 20+ scores this season. Yet it's hard to know who has the upper hand heading into tonight. I suppose I'm most confident that Snead won't lead the way. But that doesn't exactly clear things up.
I'm most confident that Joe Flacco won't be a QB1 this season. I get that he's healthy and that he finally has good wideouts. But in 10 seasons he's been a QB1 only once, and I don't see him throwing enough to put up the kind of stats we saw against last weekend's devastatingly unprepared Bills. He'll be a fantasy option to avoid in nearly every league tonight, making Crabtree, Brown, and Snead very risky starters. And if you're starting a Baltimore tight end, a one-yard TD pass is the best highlight you can hope for.
On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati is coming off a nice fourth-quarter comeback against a weak Indy D. The biggest story there was Joe Mixon's dominance in all facets of the game. It's safe to say he's one of the league's few reliable every-down backs (Gio Bernard more "handcuff" than "complementary back" than at any time in his career). That said, Mixon's Week 2 #11 RB ranking among 68 experts is a bit ambitious. I'd start him as a high-volume RB2 instead.
A.J. Green is, of course, a weekly starter. So we turn to John Ross, this week's 56th ranked wideout. I pushed Ross this summer and continue to view him as a weekly WR4/5. You could do far worse this week if you're fighting for deep-league scraps. And Tyler Eifert has returned from seemingly perpetual injury to once again be fantasy relevant. Enjoy him while he's healthy. Honestly, like Jordan Reed, Eifert has TE1 potential anytime he can make it through a game in one piece.
Finally, tonight Andy Dalton is a great two-QB-league start and a pretty poor one-QB-league start. I really believe this game will be won in the trenches more than in the air. I'd be very surprised if these two teams combine for more than 30 points.
This is why I never feel cocky after a draft. With few exceptions (for example, chronically ailing players or players whose bodies are clearly breaking down), injuries are unpredictable. If Rodgers had been knocked out for the year last weekend, the ripple effects would have been tremendous: major downgrades to Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, and Jimmy Graham; minor downgrades to Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, and Ty Montgomery; and a suddenly relevant DeShone Kizer making noise in two-QB leagues.
Take Greg Olsen's injury: Ian Thomas becomes a TE name to watch in deep leagues, while Devin Funchess and Christian McCaffrey could see more looks. Or Delanie Walker getting knocked out for the year: Jonnu Smith now has strong low-end TE1 potential, while Corey Davis (if he can stay healthy) gets a nice boost.
We've already reached a point in the season where "stock up / stock down" computations are so complex and far-reaching that it would take 3,000 words or more each day to make sense of them. For now, let's not panic about every little news item. Don't sell low on nicked-up dominant players who, when healthy, can help you win a title. Todd Gurley could be lost for the year next game, but there's no way to predict it. So let's keep taking it day by day, week by week, and not conflating one-off minor injuries with the kinds that force us into dramatic roster moves.
--
In head-to-head matchups, the Ravens and Bengals have each won 22 games. What does that tell us about tonight's contest? Absolutely nothing.
The visiting Ravens likely will lead with their run attack. After two straight seasons of being among the least run-friendly teams (25th and 30th in 2015 and 2016), they finally had the personnel in 2017 to pound the ball, culminating in the seventh most attempts in the NFL. Alex Collins has returned as Baltimore's lead back and should be fine as, at minimum, a flex option. There's no Kenneth Dixon (Injured Reserve), so Javorius Allen will be a solid flex PPR play in deeper leagues. I'm expecting 30+ touches between these two.
In the air, I'm still waiting for things to shake out. Last week's 47-3 trampling of Buffalo tells us little about how Baltimore's revamped receiving corps will play together. Michael Crabtree, John Brown, and Willie Snead are all new Ravens. The three should combine for about 2,500+ yards and maybe 20+ scores this season. Yet it's hard to know who has the upper hand heading into tonight. I suppose I'm most confident that Snead won't lead the way. But that doesn't exactly clear things up.
I'm most confident that Joe Flacco won't be a QB1 this season. I get that he's healthy and that he finally has good wideouts. But in 10 seasons he's been a QB1 only once, and I don't see him throwing enough to put up the kind of stats we saw against last weekend's devastatingly unprepared Bills. He'll be a fantasy option to avoid in nearly every league tonight, making Crabtree, Brown, and Snead very risky starters. And if you're starting a Baltimore tight end, a one-yard TD pass is the best highlight you can hope for.
On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati is coming off a nice fourth-quarter comeback against a weak Indy D. The biggest story there was Joe Mixon's dominance in all facets of the game. It's safe to say he's one of the league's few reliable every-down backs (Gio Bernard more "handcuff" than "complementary back" than at any time in his career). That said, Mixon's Week 2 #11 RB ranking among 68 experts is a bit ambitious. I'd start him as a high-volume RB2 instead.
A.J. Green is, of course, a weekly starter. So we turn to John Ross, this week's 56th ranked wideout. I pushed Ross this summer and continue to view him as a weekly WR4/5. You could do far worse this week if you're fighting for deep-league scraps. And Tyler Eifert has returned from seemingly perpetual injury to once again be fantasy relevant. Enjoy him while he's healthy. Honestly, like Jordan Reed, Eifert has TE1 potential anytime he can make it through a game in one piece.
Finally, tonight Andy Dalton is a great two-QB-league start and a pretty poor one-QB-league start. I really believe this game will be won in the trenches more than in the air. I'd be very surprised if these two teams combine for more than 30 points.