Tonight we'll look back on today with the knowledge that several more fantasy-relevant players will be, at best, questionable for Week 3 (and at worst, out for several games or more). Their backups will become some of the biggest waiver adds. Multiple breakout Week 1 players will have produced duds, while several unheralded players will have shined.
This is the script of fantasy football. We can either resent it or embrace it, and the former doesn't bring us any closer to a title.
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Every year some of you remind us that when it comes to setting lineups, "always trust your initial instincts." If it works for you, keep doing it. But I find my first instincts are wrong as often -- or more often -- as they're right. There's no right answer before-the-fact. Some of us are better at problem solving at the outset. Others, like me, need to analyze and re-analyze until all major (and some minor) factors are weighed.
Since starting the 50/50 Lineup of the Week last Week 2, I've hit 12 out of 17 (71%) with one tie. (Yes, I'm counting last week a tie even though most of you won with it; if it's not a clear win, it shouldn't count as one.) About 40% of my lineups have been elite -- the kinds that earned readers a fantastic return in DFS tournaments. Wish I could say these have been the result of trusting my initial instincts. In reality, each week I come up with my first 50/50 on Tuesday. As the week goes on, I keep challenging assumptions and (usually) tinker with it. I second-guess and triple-guess, and sometimes go through 10+ iterations before settling on a final one Sunday morning.
My surprisingly good Week 1 lineup was almost a bust. I thought seriously about starting Mike Gillislee over James Conner and then using the extra cash on a QB upgrade over Philip Rivers. Sounds stupid, right? Well, my initial instincts are sometimes stupid. But of course, no lineup is "good" or "bad" until the games are played, because sometimes the "good" bombs, and sometimes the "bad" rocks. I didn't expect Tyreek Hill to outperform, well, everybody except Alvin Kamara. But he made me look smart. Yet he wasn't in my initial lineup, and I had to convince myself Sunday morning that he belonged in the 50/50.
The following 50/50 is the result of several days of playing around with the possibilities. It's not objectively "good," though some of you might think it's objectively "bad." Like always, in the end I'll be judged by what happens on the field. Just as it should be.
QB Patrick Mahomes ($8,900 Fan Duel pricing) -- I'm on the bandwagon because the other seemingly reliable QB1s are only about 5%-15% cheaper, and because the Chiefs have a plus home matchup against the Niners. And because even an 18-point Mahomes output will be good enough to keep this lineup afloat, while a 25+ point effort will make the price tag well worth it. And finally, because I'm expecting around 30% of managers to start him, so if he bombs, I'm in good company (keeping the 50/50 bid alive).
RB Latavius Murray ($5,200) -- Murray will start in a game that could get out of hand quickly. He should still earn at least 12 touches and could top 20 if Minnesota fails to put away Buffalo in the first half. One of the top backups in the game, he will be heavily rostered and could be heavily productive.
RB Corey Clement ($5,800) -- Jay Ajayi's handcuff benefits from playing a sub-par D, being a safety valve for a returning Carson Wentz, not competing for targets with Darren Sproles (or Alshon Jeffery or Mike Wallace), and frankly being an underrated NFL talent. While Murray has more blow-up potential, Clement should comfortably outperform his price tag.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600) -- Eli Apple is out for the Giants, and Houston is facing an almost must-win situation after an 0-2 start. Hopkins and Will Fuller will be force-fed plenty in this one. With Fuller coming in at a healthy $7,200, Hopkins is the better value.
WR Amari Cooper ($6,900) -- A last-minute switch installs Cooper over Nelson Agholor. I believe Derek Carr will be throwing plenty against a vulnerable Miami pass defense. Cooper's 16 targets in Week 2 were not an anomaly. The offense runs through him.
WR Calvin Ridley ($5,000) -- After bouncing between the similarly priced Dante Pettis and D.J. Moore all week, I insert Ridley this morning. The Atlanta rookie has a nice matchup at home against the Saints and was tied for second on the team last week with five targets. The sky's the limit, and at this price, somewhere between the sky and the cold, cold earth are a realistic landing spot, making him a solid DFS play.
TE Austin Hooper ($5,200) -- Still good. Still cheap. And a worthwhile hedge in case Ridley goes silent. If I had more cash, I'd snag Zach Ertz. But Hooper is money will invested, particularly in a contest where the Vegas over/under is 53.5.
FLEX Todd Gurley ($9,300) -- The Chargers won't keep the Rams in check. So barring an injury, Gurley's getting 25+ touches. Despite being the most expensive Week 3 option, his floor and ceiling are too high to ignore.
DST Vikings ($4,900) -- Minnesota vs. Buffalo, or Jacksonville vs. Tennessee? The Vikes are $100 cheaper. It really could go either way, but on paper Minnesota has the advantage, facing a rookie QB and a pair of backup RBs.
Good luck today.
This is the script of fantasy football. We can either resent it or embrace it, and the former doesn't bring us any closer to a title.
--
Every year some of you remind us that when it comes to setting lineups, "always trust your initial instincts." If it works for you, keep doing it. But I find my first instincts are wrong as often -- or more often -- as they're right. There's no right answer before-the-fact. Some of us are better at problem solving at the outset. Others, like me, need to analyze and re-analyze until all major (and some minor) factors are weighed.
Since starting the 50/50 Lineup of the Week last Week 2, I've hit 12 out of 17 (71%) with one tie. (Yes, I'm counting last week a tie even though most of you won with it; if it's not a clear win, it shouldn't count as one.) About 40% of my lineups have been elite -- the kinds that earned readers a fantastic return in DFS tournaments. Wish I could say these have been the result of trusting my initial instincts. In reality, each week I come up with my first 50/50 on Tuesday. As the week goes on, I keep challenging assumptions and (usually) tinker with it. I second-guess and triple-guess, and sometimes go through 10+ iterations before settling on a final one Sunday morning.
My surprisingly good Week 1 lineup was almost a bust. I thought seriously about starting Mike Gillislee over James Conner and then using the extra cash on a QB upgrade over Philip Rivers. Sounds stupid, right? Well, my initial instincts are sometimes stupid. But of course, no lineup is "good" or "bad" until the games are played, because sometimes the "good" bombs, and sometimes the "bad" rocks. I didn't expect Tyreek Hill to outperform, well, everybody except Alvin Kamara. But he made me look smart. Yet he wasn't in my initial lineup, and I had to convince myself Sunday morning that he belonged in the 50/50.
The following 50/50 is the result of several days of playing around with the possibilities. It's not objectively "good," though some of you might think it's objectively "bad." Like always, in the end I'll be judged by what happens on the field. Just as it should be.
QB Patrick Mahomes ($8,900 Fan Duel pricing) -- I'm on the bandwagon because the other seemingly reliable QB1s are only about 5%-15% cheaper, and because the Chiefs have a plus home matchup against the Niners. And because even an 18-point Mahomes output will be good enough to keep this lineup afloat, while a 25+ point effort will make the price tag well worth it. And finally, because I'm expecting around 30% of managers to start him, so if he bombs, I'm in good company (keeping the 50/50 bid alive).
RB Latavius Murray ($5,200) -- Murray will start in a game that could get out of hand quickly. He should still earn at least 12 touches and could top 20 if Minnesota fails to put away Buffalo in the first half. One of the top backups in the game, he will be heavily rostered and could be heavily productive.
RB Corey Clement ($5,800) -- Jay Ajayi's handcuff benefits from playing a sub-par D, being a safety valve for a returning Carson Wentz, not competing for targets with Darren Sproles (or Alshon Jeffery or Mike Wallace), and frankly being an underrated NFL talent. While Murray has more blow-up potential, Clement should comfortably outperform his price tag.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600) -- Eli Apple is out for the Giants, and Houston is facing an almost must-win situation after an 0-2 start. Hopkins and Will Fuller will be force-fed plenty in this one. With Fuller coming in at a healthy $7,200, Hopkins is the better value.
WR Amari Cooper ($6,900) -- A last-minute switch installs Cooper over Nelson Agholor. I believe Derek Carr will be throwing plenty against a vulnerable Miami pass defense. Cooper's 16 targets in Week 2 were not an anomaly. The offense runs through him.
WR Calvin Ridley ($5,000) -- After bouncing between the similarly priced Dante Pettis and D.J. Moore all week, I insert Ridley this morning. The Atlanta rookie has a nice matchup at home against the Saints and was tied for second on the team last week with five targets. The sky's the limit, and at this price, somewhere between the sky and the cold, cold earth are a realistic landing spot, making him a solid DFS play.
TE Austin Hooper ($5,200) -- Still good. Still cheap. And a worthwhile hedge in case Ridley goes silent. If I had more cash, I'd snag Zach Ertz. But Hooper is money will invested, particularly in a contest where the Vegas over/under is 53.5.
FLEX Todd Gurley ($9,300) -- The Chargers won't keep the Rams in check. So barring an injury, Gurley's getting 25+ touches. Despite being the most expensive Week 3 option, his floor and ceiling are too high to ignore.
DST Vikings ($4,900) -- Minnesota vs. Buffalo, or Jacksonville vs. Tennessee? The Vikes are $100 cheaper. It really could go either way, but on paper Minnesota has the advantage, facing a rookie QB and a pair of backup RBs.
Good luck today.