Calvin Ridley bailed me out in last week's 50/50 contest, bringing my season record to 2-0-1 (one tie). Ridley was a last-minute substitute for D.J. Moore. In fantasy football, there's a fine line between stupidity and success.
This week's DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week was all set when I went to sleep last night. About an hour before posting the column, nagging doubts led to a complete overhaul. The original roster consisted of Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas, Taywan Taylor, Antonio Callaway, Rhett Ellison, Gio Bernard, and the Jaguars DST. Only four of the nine remain. There are multiple paths to a 50/50 win. This new official lineup should be safer while also offering more upside.
QB Philip Rivers ($7,800) -- Eli Manning is cheaper and looks primed for a terrific day. And Brady has 4-TD bust-out potential in a home matchup against a weak Miami secondary. But I'm going with an almost guaranteed top-12 QB against a reeling, injury-riddled Niners D. This isn't about boom-bust; it's about racking up enough point to finish in the top half.
RB Alvin Kamara ($9,100) -- Hate the price and love the upside in what could be a high-scoring game against the Giants. Few other RBs offer remotely safe top-16 RB production. As a bonus, Kamara is a good weekly bet for top-3 numbers.
RB Melvin Gordon ($8,700) -- In Dallas today, the offense will run through Ezekiel Elliott against a porous Detroit run D. But I'm taking a slightly more expensive Gordon as a hedge. Rivers or Gordon (and possibly both) will be exceptional today.
WR Michael Thomas ($9,000) -- Although I could save $1,000-$2,000 to grab a back-end WR1, Thomas's floor is incredibly high, and his ceiling arguably is higher than any other receiver's. I also like that the Giants are once again missing some key defensive components. At worst this is a hedge, as Kamara and/or Thomas should go off.
WR Tyler Boyd ($5,800) -- Passing on the slightly pricier Mike Williams and Calvin Ridley. Boyd has a nice floor against a beatable Atlanta D.
WR Antonio Callaway ($4,500) -- Fan Duel doesn't price wideouts any lower than $4,500, meaning this might be Callaway's final game of the season listed as a bottom-priced option. He earned 11 targets last week and is a pretty clear #2 receiving option for talented rookie Baker Mayfield. Callaway has 90+ yard potential against Oakland. I'll settle for 8+ points.
TE Rhett Ellison ($4,100) -- Nothing to lose. He should post top-20 TE numbers. I briefly swapped him out for Geoff Swaim, but I prefer Ellison's TD potential.
FLEX Sterling Shepard ($6,200) -- In each of New Orleans' three games this year, the opposing team's #2 wideout has gone off: DJax Week 1, Callaway Week 2, and Ridley Week 3.
DST Chargers ($4,400) -- While Jacksonville should handle Sam Darnold and company, I view that as a low-scoring contest with a lot of running (i.e. not enough sacks or interceptions). Playing with a backup QB and sub-par (relative to the rest of the league) receiving corps, the Niners could have three or four turnovers in this one.
Good luck today.
This week's DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week was all set when I went to sleep last night. About an hour before posting the column, nagging doubts led to a complete overhaul. The original roster consisted of Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas, Taywan Taylor, Antonio Callaway, Rhett Ellison, Gio Bernard, and the Jaguars DST. Only four of the nine remain. There are multiple paths to a 50/50 win. This new official lineup should be safer while also offering more upside.
QB Philip Rivers ($7,800) -- Eli Manning is cheaper and looks primed for a terrific day. And Brady has 4-TD bust-out potential in a home matchup against a weak Miami secondary. But I'm going with an almost guaranteed top-12 QB against a reeling, injury-riddled Niners D. This isn't about boom-bust; it's about racking up enough point to finish in the top half.
RB Alvin Kamara ($9,100) -- Hate the price and love the upside in what could be a high-scoring game against the Giants. Few other RBs offer remotely safe top-16 RB production. As a bonus, Kamara is a good weekly bet for top-3 numbers.
RB Melvin Gordon ($8,700) -- In Dallas today, the offense will run through Ezekiel Elliott against a porous Detroit run D. But I'm taking a slightly more expensive Gordon as a hedge. Rivers or Gordon (and possibly both) will be exceptional today.
WR Michael Thomas ($9,000) -- Although I could save $1,000-$2,000 to grab a back-end WR1, Thomas's floor is incredibly high, and his ceiling arguably is higher than any other receiver's. I also like that the Giants are once again missing some key defensive components. At worst this is a hedge, as Kamara and/or Thomas should go off.
WR Tyler Boyd ($5,800) -- Passing on the slightly pricier Mike Williams and Calvin Ridley. Boyd has a nice floor against a beatable Atlanta D.
WR Antonio Callaway ($4,500) -- Fan Duel doesn't price wideouts any lower than $4,500, meaning this might be Callaway's final game of the season listed as a bottom-priced option. He earned 11 targets last week and is a pretty clear #2 receiving option for talented rookie Baker Mayfield. Callaway has 90+ yard potential against Oakland. I'll settle for 8+ points.
TE Rhett Ellison ($4,100) -- Nothing to lose. He should post top-20 TE numbers. I briefly swapped him out for Geoff Swaim, but I prefer Ellison's TD potential.
FLEX Sterling Shepard ($6,200) -- In each of New Orleans' three games this year, the opposing team's #2 wideout has gone off: DJax Week 1, Callaway Week 2, and Ridley Week 3.
DST Chargers ($4,400) -- While Jacksonville should handle Sam Darnold and company, I view that as a low-scoring contest with a lot of running (i.e. not enough sacks or interceptions). Playing with a backup QB and sub-par (relative to the rest of the league) receiving corps, the Niners could have three or four turnovers in this one.
Good luck today.