I've got four more preseason contrarian predictions, bringing my total this year to 25: 14 very undervalued players and 10 very overvalued players. As always, by season's end, I'll be fairly judged by how much these recommendations helped or hurt managers like you. Whatever happens, I remain confident about each pick. Let the fantasy gods (and as sometimes happens, my idiocy) handle the rest.
Devonta Freeman is my #22 prediction. I shared concerns about him a few days ago and have ranked him below his ADP for awhile. His role in the passing game has continued to decline: 4.9 receptions per game in 2015, 3.4 in 2016, and 2.6 last year. The addition of Calvin Ridley and gradual ascension of Austin Hooper -- not to mention Tevin Coleman's increasing usage since 2015 -- will put a modest squeeze on Freeman. His RB-12 ADP is unrealistic. He won't finish in the top 16. That might not seem very contrarian. But 112 of 114 experts (98%) rank him in the top 16, with 62% viewing him as an RB1. His reign as a widely viewed preseason RB1 should have ended.
My #23 pick concerns former first-round selection John Ross, who's coming off an injury-plagued rookie season. Now expected to start all year opposite A.J. Green, Ross is a fantastic bargain at his WR-64 ADP. 107 of 114 experts (93%) rank him outside the top 50. Probably stranger than that, 39% place him outside the top 70. Think about that: nearly half of all Fantasy Pros-compiled experts believe the fastest starting wideout in the NFL (4.22 40-yard time) is headed toward a roughly 30/500/2 season. Too much talent and not enough fantasy love. Lining up with the undependable Tyler Eifert, and with no proven wideout playing behind him, Ross is a near lock for top-50 numbers in his first full season.
Ryan Grant is the #24 contrarian prediction. Owning a crazy WR-81 ADP, Grant will start alongside T.Y. Hilton in a rejuvenated (i.e. Andrew Luck-led) offense with a relatively poor running game. Playing a more limited role last year in Washington, Grant was the 29th best fantasy WR on third downs and 28th inside the red zone. He also caught 70% of his targets, which was 13th best. 92% of experts (106 out of 115) place him outside the top 55. Available in 89% of ESPN leagues, Grant will be a useful streamer as Luck's likely #2 target -- a top-55 WR with several WR2/3 weeks in store.
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Devonta Freeman is my #22 prediction. I shared concerns about him a few days ago and have ranked him below his ADP for awhile. His role in the passing game has continued to decline: 4.9 receptions per game in 2015, 3.4 in 2016, and 2.6 last year. The addition of Calvin Ridley and gradual ascension of Austin Hooper -- not to mention Tevin Coleman's increasing usage since 2015 -- will put a modest squeeze on Freeman. His RB-12 ADP is unrealistic. He won't finish in the top 16. That might not seem very contrarian. But 112 of 114 experts (98%) rank him in the top 16, with 62% viewing him as an RB1. His reign as a widely viewed preseason RB1 should have ended.
My #23 pick concerns former first-round selection John Ross, who's coming off an injury-plagued rookie season. Now expected to start all year opposite A.J. Green, Ross is a fantastic bargain at his WR-64 ADP. 107 of 114 experts (93%) rank him outside the top 50. Probably stranger than that, 39% place him outside the top 70. Think about that: nearly half of all Fantasy Pros-compiled experts believe the fastest starting wideout in the NFL (4.22 40-yard time) is headed toward a roughly 30/500/2 season. Too much talent and not enough fantasy love. Lining up with the undependable Tyler Eifert, and with no proven wideout playing behind him, Ross is a near lock for top-50 numbers in his first full season.
Ryan Grant is the #24 contrarian prediction. Owning a crazy WR-81 ADP, Grant will start alongside T.Y. Hilton in a rejuvenated (i.e. Andrew Luck-led) offense with a relatively poor running game. Playing a more limited role last year in Washington, Grant was the 29th best fantasy WR on third downs and 28th inside the red zone. He also caught 70% of his targets, which was 13th best. 92% of experts (106 out of 115) place him outside the top 55. Available in 89% of ESPN leagues, Grant will be a useful streamer as Luck's likely #2 target -- a top-55 WR with several WR2/3 weeks in store.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota