Most of you know I love trading. Every day is a day to size up who's overvalued and who's undervalued, and how I can capitalize on an opponent's anxiety ("I'm sick of Brady!").
And yet both my leagues don't allow trading. And I'm commissioner of one of them (the FF4W Premier Fantasy League). So there's no excuse. I've opted for a trade-free existence and am not happy about it. So this season I'm living vicariously through all of you. Tell me a trade where you crushed it, and I'll smile knowing another angel got its wings (vague "It's a Wonderful Life" reference for those who are already confused).
So let's take a minute to examine some buy-low, sell-high guys who -- if I were in a trading league -- would be jumping on (or handing off to the highest bidder).
At QB, Tom Brady is one of my favorite buy-low options. He's entering a three-game home stand; he'll come out of it with at least eight more TDs and two (or probably three) QB1 performances. Despite being the 21st highest scoring QB through three games, he remains a top-8 option. I also really like Carson Wentz; after a couple more games, and after Alshon Jeffery returns, he'll return to QB1 value with a shot at replicating last year's per-game numbers.
On the flip side, if you believe Patrick Mahomes is the greatest NFL quarterback of all time, hold on to him. Tightly. More realistically, his 4,779/69/0 pace is unsustainable. He's averaging just under 31 fantasy points per game. In Peyton Manning's record-breaking 2013 season, the future Hall-of-Famer averaged 25.6. If you can sell Mahomes as a top-3 QB, do it now, and don't look back. When a player looks invincible, we have to be reminded that he's not. Defenses will adjust. His first three games were against teams with relatively weak secondaries. That won't always be the case. To be clear, I'm not saying Mahomes is bad or will be bad. I am saying he'd running way too hot right now and probably could be pawned off for, say, Cam Newton and a mid-range RB1 or WR1. Or Cam and an underperforming elite WR1 like DeAndre Hopkins.
At RB, while I don't like trading for injured players, Dalvin Cook's season realistically can only go up from here. He's a bellcow in a strong offense, and he's uber-talented. Why can't he be a mid-range RB1 the rest of the way. You can probably snag him for a high-end WR2 price. The same goes for the injured Joe Mixon, though you should be able to get him even cheaper. At 44 touches in his first two games, Mixon might be the cheapest unquestioned bellcow around.
On the flip side, Adrian Peterson (for previously stated reasons) and Matt Breida (weaker offense with Jimmy G. out) are big sell-high guys. So is Marshawn Lynch if you can find someone who views him as a top-20 RB. I don't see him finishing the season healthy, and if he does, I don't see him carrying the load all the way through. He's also averaging 3.5 YPC and is on pace for 16 TDs; the first is unfortunately sustainable, and the second isn't.
At WR, I like Devin Funchess as a WR3+, despite his current WR4/5 production. Some managers must be growing impatient. The same goes for WR2 DeAndre Hopkins, who will surely end the season as a WR1. If you can get him at no more than top 8-10 value, I'd trade for him.
On the flip side, DeSean Jackson is the #7 fantasy WR despite averaging only four catches per contest. Something has to give, and what's likely to happen is DJax reverting to a #3 role behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin while also competing with an ascending O.J. Howard. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's bottom-barrel running game can't be this bad all season, can it? DJax was a great story to start the season, but it's a mistake to hold onto him all year.
At TE, you might be able to get Jimmy Graham for next to nothing despite being rostered in 98% of ESPN leagues. The 13th best fantasy TE thus far, Graham hasn't scored yet. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays on the field, the veteran tight end should finish the year with 5-7 scores, making him a clear-cut TE1 the rest of the way.
On the flip side, sell George Kittle for TE1 value if you can. The same goes for Jared Cook, though you knew that two weeks ago . . .
And yet both my leagues don't allow trading. And I'm commissioner of one of them (the FF4W Premier Fantasy League). So there's no excuse. I've opted for a trade-free existence and am not happy about it. So this season I'm living vicariously through all of you. Tell me a trade where you crushed it, and I'll smile knowing another angel got its wings (vague "It's a Wonderful Life" reference for those who are already confused).
So let's take a minute to examine some buy-low, sell-high guys who -- if I were in a trading league -- would be jumping on (or handing off to the highest bidder).
At QB, Tom Brady is one of my favorite buy-low options. He's entering a three-game home stand; he'll come out of it with at least eight more TDs and two (or probably three) QB1 performances. Despite being the 21st highest scoring QB through three games, he remains a top-8 option. I also really like Carson Wentz; after a couple more games, and after Alshon Jeffery returns, he'll return to QB1 value with a shot at replicating last year's per-game numbers.
On the flip side, if you believe Patrick Mahomes is the greatest NFL quarterback of all time, hold on to him. Tightly. More realistically, his 4,779/69/0 pace is unsustainable. He's averaging just under 31 fantasy points per game. In Peyton Manning's record-breaking 2013 season, the future Hall-of-Famer averaged 25.6. If you can sell Mahomes as a top-3 QB, do it now, and don't look back. When a player looks invincible, we have to be reminded that he's not. Defenses will adjust. His first three games were against teams with relatively weak secondaries. That won't always be the case. To be clear, I'm not saying Mahomes is bad or will be bad. I am saying he'd running way too hot right now and probably could be pawned off for, say, Cam Newton and a mid-range RB1 or WR1. Or Cam and an underperforming elite WR1 like DeAndre Hopkins.
At RB, while I don't like trading for injured players, Dalvin Cook's season realistically can only go up from here. He's a bellcow in a strong offense, and he's uber-talented. Why can't he be a mid-range RB1 the rest of the way. You can probably snag him for a high-end WR2 price. The same goes for the injured Joe Mixon, though you should be able to get him even cheaper. At 44 touches in his first two games, Mixon might be the cheapest unquestioned bellcow around.
On the flip side, Adrian Peterson (for previously stated reasons) and Matt Breida (weaker offense with Jimmy G. out) are big sell-high guys. So is Marshawn Lynch if you can find someone who views him as a top-20 RB. I don't see him finishing the season healthy, and if he does, I don't see him carrying the load all the way through. He's also averaging 3.5 YPC and is on pace for 16 TDs; the first is unfortunately sustainable, and the second isn't.
At WR, I like Devin Funchess as a WR3+, despite his current WR4/5 production. Some managers must be growing impatient. The same goes for WR2 DeAndre Hopkins, who will surely end the season as a WR1. If you can get him at no more than top 8-10 value, I'd trade for him.
On the flip side, DeSean Jackson is the #7 fantasy WR despite averaging only four catches per contest. Something has to give, and what's likely to happen is DJax reverting to a #3 role behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin while also competing with an ascending O.J. Howard. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's bottom-barrel running game can't be this bad all season, can it? DJax was a great story to start the season, but it's a mistake to hold onto him all year.
At TE, you might be able to get Jimmy Graham for next to nothing despite being rostered in 98% of ESPN leagues. The 13th best fantasy TE thus far, Graham hasn't scored yet. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays on the field, the veteran tight end should finish the year with 5-7 scores, making him a clear-cut TE1 the rest of the way.
On the flip side, sell George Kittle for TE1 value if you can. The same goes for Jared Cook, though you knew that two weeks ago . . .