Thoughts on John Ross, Tyler Lockett, and Ryan Grant; and Contrarian Prediction #6: Jimmy Garoppolo (QB-9 ADP) Won't Be a Top 15 QB
John Ross, Tyler Lockett, and Ryan Grant. Three projected #2 wideouts for their respective teams. Three guys with more upside than their track records suggest. Three young players whose teams desperately need them to fill critical gaps.
Shoulder and leg injuries derailed Ross's rookie campaign. The #9 overall pick in 2017 is tentatively set to replace Brandon LaFell as the starter opposite A.J. Green. He should surpass LaFell's 52/548/3 stat line, putting him in the top-55 conversation. Given his WR-75 ADP and near-universal rejection by 75 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts (more than half place him 80th or worse, which is insane), Ross is a player to keep in your back pocket toward the end of your draft. Assuming he locks down the #2 job, he'll be worth a flyer as a WR4/5 with a little upside.
Tyler Lockett has more immediate value as a more seasoned 25-year-old with three near-fantasy-relevant campaigns under his belt. With Paul Richardson gone and Doug Baldwin ailing, Lockett is now reportedly healthier, and with a firmer grasp of Seattle's #2 WR job. It's entirely conceivable that he produces the 2015 rookie numbers (51/664/6) that first put him on the fantasy map. Mostly ignored this summer (WR-68 ADP), he's yet another late-round flyer who could net you top 30-35 production if most things break right, and at minimum top 40-45 production if he merely stays healthy.
Ryan Grant was a promising prospect for four seasons in Washington, finally proving his value last season when thrust into a more prominent role. He's been competing for a starting job this summer with two rookies (Daurice Fountain and Deon Cain) and future journeyman Chester Rogers. Head coach Frank Reich propped up him publicly yesterday, suggesting Grant is a good bet to start opposite T.Y. Hilton. He's currently a WR6 on my draft board, compared to an outlandish WR-106 ADP, and is headed toward a WR4/5 designation if he maintains his standing this month.
Today's contrarian prediction should come as no surprise to regular FF4W readers. Jimmy Garoppolo is all the rage since doing the unthinkable last season: throwing to one of the league’s worst receiving corps, he led a 1-10 squad to five wins in five starts, including against three playoff-bound teams. When extended over 16 contests, his per-game fantasy production would have placed him ninth among all QBs. And so, magically (i.e. with minimal expert scrutiny), that's what his preseason QB ADP has been all summer.
Some people point to Pierre Garcon's health and Marquise Goodwin's ascension -- along with George Kittle's development -- as signs of a Niners renaissance. I'm not ready to go there. In a league where 25 QBs have a serious shot at top-14 numbers, why bet on Garoppolo? With the scoring gap between the #9 and #16 QBs historically being between one and two points per game, why reach for a largely unproven Garoppolo when similar-upside guys like Marcus Mariota (QB-18) and Derek Carr (QB-19) can be had several rounds later?
Garoppolo has further to drop than to ascend, particularly after last year's incredible run, which included a mark of 8.8 yards per attempt -- which according to Fantasy Pros' Mike Tagliere ranks as the third best YPA in five years among QBs with 100+ pass attempts. It would be a huge mistake to assume that this five-game stretch is now the norm, or worse, Garoppolo's floor.
Jimmy G. will not be a top 15 QB. Someday, yes. But not this year.
Shoulder and leg injuries derailed Ross's rookie campaign. The #9 overall pick in 2017 is tentatively set to replace Brandon LaFell as the starter opposite A.J. Green. He should surpass LaFell's 52/548/3 stat line, putting him in the top-55 conversation. Given his WR-75 ADP and near-universal rejection by 75 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts (more than half place him 80th or worse, which is insane), Ross is a player to keep in your back pocket toward the end of your draft. Assuming he locks down the #2 job, he'll be worth a flyer as a WR4/5 with a little upside.
Tyler Lockett has more immediate value as a more seasoned 25-year-old with three near-fantasy-relevant campaigns under his belt. With Paul Richardson gone and Doug Baldwin ailing, Lockett is now reportedly healthier, and with a firmer grasp of Seattle's #2 WR job. It's entirely conceivable that he produces the 2015 rookie numbers (51/664/6) that first put him on the fantasy map. Mostly ignored this summer (WR-68 ADP), he's yet another late-round flyer who could net you top 30-35 production if most things break right, and at minimum top 40-45 production if he merely stays healthy.
Ryan Grant was a promising prospect for four seasons in Washington, finally proving his value last season when thrust into a more prominent role. He's been competing for a starting job this summer with two rookies (Daurice Fountain and Deon Cain) and future journeyman Chester Rogers. Head coach Frank Reich propped up him publicly yesterday, suggesting Grant is a good bet to start opposite T.Y. Hilton. He's currently a WR6 on my draft board, compared to an outlandish WR-106 ADP, and is headed toward a WR4/5 designation if he maintains his standing this month.
Today's contrarian prediction should come as no surprise to regular FF4W readers. Jimmy Garoppolo is all the rage since doing the unthinkable last season: throwing to one of the league’s worst receiving corps, he led a 1-10 squad to five wins in five starts, including against three playoff-bound teams. When extended over 16 contests, his per-game fantasy production would have placed him ninth among all QBs. And so, magically (i.e. with minimal expert scrutiny), that's what his preseason QB ADP has been all summer.
Some people point to Pierre Garcon's health and Marquise Goodwin's ascension -- along with George Kittle's development -- as signs of a Niners renaissance. I'm not ready to go there. In a league where 25 QBs have a serious shot at top-14 numbers, why bet on Garoppolo? With the scoring gap between the #9 and #16 QBs historically being between one and two points per game, why reach for a largely unproven Garoppolo when similar-upside guys like Marcus Mariota (QB-18) and Derek Carr (QB-19) can be had several rounds later?
Garoppolo has further to drop than to ascend, particularly after last year's incredible run, which included a mark of 8.8 yards per attempt -- which according to Fantasy Pros' Mike Tagliere ranks as the third best YPA in five years among QBs with 100+ pass attempts. It would be a huge mistake to assume that this five-game stretch is now the norm, or worse, Garoppolo's floor.
Jimmy G. will not be a top 15 QB. Someday, yes. But not this year.