The Value of High-Scoring Teams' Kickers, and Contrarian Prediction #2: Josh Lambo (K-22 ADP) Will Be a Top 12 K
Once a year I devote a full column to kickers. They’ve earned it.
Part of my research for the book “Fantasy Football for Winners” included testing a hypothesis that kickers in high-powered offenses scored more fantasy points, on average, than kickers in inferior offenses. I recently decided to update these numbers, spanning all nine seasons since 2009. The results are clear: teams that score the most points have far more effective fantasy kickers than teams that score the fewest points.
This is both obvious and useful. Obvious because of course; it makes sense. And useful because it’s not always incorporated into draft strategy. I’m always shocked to see fantasy managers draft kickers in a weak offense. Why take the risk? There’s a theory often promoted by experts that you want a kicker in a good offense, but not a great offense. The idea is that the best kickers get plenty of field goal opportunities because the offense is good enough to get downfield, but doesn’t excel at converting in the red zone.
Sounds good on paper, but it’s neither useful (how do you define “good, not great”?) nor reliable.
The simplest, most reliable indicator of fantasy kicker performance lies with a team’s point-scoring potential. In 2009, the four highest scoring fantasy kickers played on teams that were in the top 5 in points scored. In 2010, all five top offenses demonstrated top-9 fantasy kicking success. And so on through the years. In fact, last year the 10 highest-scoring teams all finished in the top 12 in fantasy kicker points.
This thinking also applies to those who stream kickers. Why roll with a guy facing an elite defense? Why not swap him out for a kicker facing a terrible D? Last year kickers averaged 5.8 fantasy points per game vs. the elite Jaguars defense (#2 in scoring defense). They were comparably bad (5.8) versus the #3 Chargers and not much better (6.1) against the #1 Vikings. But against the team that gave up the most points, the Texans, opposing kickers averaged nine fantasy points per game, and 7.3 and 8.1 against the next worst D’s (Browns and Colts).
The chart below shows the eerily consistent correlation between high-scoring teams’ kickers and low-scoring teams’ kickers. Top-5 offensive teams’ kickers average 137 points, compared to 100 points for kickers on bottom-5 teams. Deciding which kicker to draft, and choosing which kickers to stream when needed, are as simple as eyeballing which teams should score the most points.
--
This leads into my next contrarian prediction: Josh Lambo will be a top-12 fantasy kicker. He’s rarely getting drafted for some strange reason, owning a K-22 ADP despite being on pace for the 12th most fantasy points last year through 10 games. Moreover, 44 of 52 experts rank him outside the top 12.
Lambo is playing for last year’s fifth-highest-scoring team, in an offense where all key 2017 offensive contributors are returning. A former MLS player, he’s capable from long range: 60% from 50+, meaning the Jags will be open to using him in those situations. His most glaring downside -- likely the reason the Chargers cut him before the start of last season -- has been missed extra points, as he's hit on only 90%. But that might be more mental than anything else, as he's a fantastic 31 of 32 inside 40 yards. That 97% clip is astounding when you consider a perennially elite fantasy kicker like Stephen Gostkowski has thrived despite hitting only 88% of his attempts inside the 40.
Simply put, Lambo will be a heavily utilized and appreciably accurate component of a high-functioning offense. If you find yourself without an elite kicker in the final round, take a flyer on the Jags' underrated kicker.
Part of my research for the book “Fantasy Football for Winners” included testing a hypothesis that kickers in high-powered offenses scored more fantasy points, on average, than kickers in inferior offenses. I recently decided to update these numbers, spanning all nine seasons since 2009. The results are clear: teams that score the most points have far more effective fantasy kickers than teams that score the fewest points.
This is both obvious and useful. Obvious because of course; it makes sense. And useful because it’s not always incorporated into draft strategy. I’m always shocked to see fantasy managers draft kickers in a weak offense. Why take the risk? There’s a theory often promoted by experts that you want a kicker in a good offense, but not a great offense. The idea is that the best kickers get plenty of field goal opportunities because the offense is good enough to get downfield, but doesn’t excel at converting in the red zone.
Sounds good on paper, but it’s neither useful (how do you define “good, not great”?) nor reliable.
The simplest, most reliable indicator of fantasy kicker performance lies with a team’s point-scoring potential. In 2009, the four highest scoring fantasy kickers played on teams that were in the top 5 in points scored. In 2010, all five top offenses demonstrated top-9 fantasy kicking success. And so on through the years. In fact, last year the 10 highest-scoring teams all finished in the top 12 in fantasy kicker points.
This thinking also applies to those who stream kickers. Why roll with a guy facing an elite defense? Why not swap him out for a kicker facing a terrible D? Last year kickers averaged 5.8 fantasy points per game vs. the elite Jaguars defense (#2 in scoring defense). They were comparably bad (5.8) versus the #3 Chargers and not much better (6.1) against the #1 Vikings. But against the team that gave up the most points, the Texans, opposing kickers averaged nine fantasy points per game, and 7.3 and 8.1 against the next worst D’s (Browns and Colts).
The chart below shows the eerily consistent correlation between high-scoring teams’ kickers and low-scoring teams’ kickers. Top-5 offensive teams’ kickers average 137 points, compared to 100 points for kickers on bottom-5 teams. Deciding which kicker to draft, and choosing which kickers to stream when needed, are as simple as eyeballing which teams should score the most points.
--
This leads into my next contrarian prediction: Josh Lambo will be a top-12 fantasy kicker. He’s rarely getting drafted for some strange reason, owning a K-22 ADP despite being on pace for the 12th most fantasy points last year through 10 games. Moreover, 44 of 52 experts rank him outside the top 12.
Lambo is playing for last year’s fifth-highest-scoring team, in an offense where all key 2017 offensive contributors are returning. A former MLS player, he’s capable from long range: 60% from 50+, meaning the Jags will be open to using him in those situations. His most glaring downside -- likely the reason the Chargers cut him before the start of last season -- has been missed extra points, as he's hit on only 90%. But that might be more mental than anything else, as he's a fantastic 31 of 32 inside 40 yards. That 97% clip is astounding when you consider a perennially elite fantasy kicker like Stephen Gostkowski has thrived despite hitting only 88% of his attempts inside the 40.
Simply put, Lambo will be a heavily utilized and appreciably accurate component of a high-functioning offense. If you find yourself without an elite kicker in the final round, take a flyer on the Jags' underrated kicker.
