Seattle Backfield Update, and Contrarian Prediction #8: Blake Bortles (QB-28 ADP) Will Be a Top 18 QB
My July 16 column included the following:
"[Chris] Carson broke a higher percentage of tackles last year (37.5%) than any other RB, WR, or TE with 50+ touches. That’s a remarkable stat, and it hits on what makes Carson a potentially special talent if he gets another opportunity."
Mired in the 40s all summer in RB ADP, Carson is about to get that chance. Rashaad Penny (RB-21 ADP) will have surgery today on a broken finger, which is expected to keep him out 3-4 weeks. Although many experts believe Penny will overtake Carson this season (the conventional thinking has been "Why would Seattle sideline their first-round pick?"), Carson can earn his way into no worse than an RBBC timeshare. At best, he could seize the 1A job, meaning 200+ touches and season-long fantasy relevance.
If you're drafting soon, your draft room might still rank Penny in the low-20s and Carson in the low-40s. That might make it psychologically difficult for some managers to pass on Penny for very long, or to reach too early for Carson. That creates an opening. I strongly urge folks to reach for Carson after 25-28 RBs are off the board. Barring an injury, he's in a fantastic position to return top-30 value, even if he does end up splitting time when Penny returns.
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Blake Bortles was my first contrarian prediction last summer -- a QB-22 ADP "bust" who many believed would be replaced by Chad Henne midseason, if not sooner. Only nine of 88 experts ranked him inside the top 14 (and none in the top 10), while more than 50% placed him in the 20s. He was almost universally perceived as undraftable:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/1394809887233653
That he finished 13th among all fantasy QBs was remarkable. Doing it without his #1 receiver (Allen Robinson) was even more incredible. But this is Bortles in a nutshell: a thoroughly underappreciated quarterback who's rarely great and rarely awful. Last year he had as many zero-TD games (two) as five of the top seven fantasy QBs. Leaning on an improved running game and defense, his pass attempts were well below 2015 and 2016 totals, yet he still managed to rack up enough points to be fantasy-useful in nine out of 16 games.
Once of the historical knocks on Bortles was that he cleaned up in garbage time. And there's some truth to that. Turns out from 2014 to 2016, 29 of his 69 pass TDs (42%) came in the fourth quarter. Not surprisingly, the Jags were 6-23 in those contests. Want to guess how many fourth-quarter TD passes he had last year? That's right: two. Two pass TDs out of 21. If he'd had the same team, but with a bad offense, we might have seen 100 more throws and near-elite production from this often-maligned quarterback.
Another interesting nugget: his 21 TD passes went to 11 different receivers. Yes, the loss of Robinson forced him to get more production out of guys who normally wouldn't have been on the field -- players like Jaydon Mickens, Jaelen Strong, and yes, previously unheralded breakout contributors like Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole. By contrast, his 23 TD passes in 2016 went to nine different players, while his 35 TD passes in 2015 reached only eight guys. He doesn't need a #1 receiver to carry him to relevance. Of course, having a high-impact running back like Leonard Fournette doesn't hurt.
So why is Bortles' QB-ADP stuck at 29? For context, last year's 28th best fantasy QB was Mitch Trubisky. And he played only 12 games. How could anyone think Bortles will be worse than bad?
While most fantasy experts don't think he'll be that bad, most rank him in the bottom-third. And 98 out of 105 (93%) place him outside the top 18. It's a bizarre rebuke of a talented 26-year-old with a firm grip on the starting job, plenty of offensive weapons to target, and three consecutive statistically solid seasons under his belt. Yes, he'll face more competition this year with the rise of Jimmy Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes and the healthy returns of Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Andrew Luck. But in spite of that, Bortles will defy nearly every expectation and finish in the top 18.
"[Chris] Carson broke a higher percentage of tackles last year (37.5%) than any other RB, WR, or TE with 50+ touches. That’s a remarkable stat, and it hits on what makes Carson a potentially special talent if he gets another opportunity."
Mired in the 40s all summer in RB ADP, Carson is about to get that chance. Rashaad Penny (RB-21 ADP) will have surgery today on a broken finger, which is expected to keep him out 3-4 weeks. Although many experts believe Penny will overtake Carson this season (the conventional thinking has been "Why would Seattle sideline their first-round pick?"), Carson can earn his way into no worse than an RBBC timeshare. At best, he could seize the 1A job, meaning 200+ touches and season-long fantasy relevance.
If you're drafting soon, your draft room might still rank Penny in the low-20s and Carson in the low-40s. That might make it psychologically difficult for some managers to pass on Penny for very long, or to reach too early for Carson. That creates an opening. I strongly urge folks to reach for Carson after 25-28 RBs are off the board. Barring an injury, he's in a fantastic position to return top-30 value, even if he does end up splitting time when Penny returns.
--
Blake Bortles was my first contrarian prediction last summer -- a QB-22 ADP "bust" who many believed would be replaced by Chad Henne midseason, if not sooner. Only nine of 88 experts ranked him inside the top 14 (and none in the top 10), while more than 50% placed him in the 20s. He was almost universally perceived as undraftable:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/1394809887233653
That he finished 13th among all fantasy QBs was remarkable. Doing it without his #1 receiver (Allen Robinson) was even more incredible. But this is Bortles in a nutshell: a thoroughly underappreciated quarterback who's rarely great and rarely awful. Last year he had as many zero-TD games (two) as five of the top seven fantasy QBs. Leaning on an improved running game and defense, his pass attempts were well below 2015 and 2016 totals, yet he still managed to rack up enough points to be fantasy-useful in nine out of 16 games.
Once of the historical knocks on Bortles was that he cleaned up in garbage time. And there's some truth to that. Turns out from 2014 to 2016, 29 of his 69 pass TDs (42%) came in the fourth quarter. Not surprisingly, the Jags were 6-23 in those contests. Want to guess how many fourth-quarter TD passes he had last year? That's right: two. Two pass TDs out of 21. If he'd had the same team, but with a bad offense, we might have seen 100 more throws and near-elite production from this often-maligned quarterback.
Another interesting nugget: his 21 TD passes went to 11 different receivers. Yes, the loss of Robinson forced him to get more production out of guys who normally wouldn't have been on the field -- players like Jaydon Mickens, Jaelen Strong, and yes, previously unheralded breakout contributors like Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole. By contrast, his 23 TD passes in 2016 went to nine different players, while his 35 TD passes in 2015 reached only eight guys. He doesn't need a #1 receiver to carry him to relevance. Of course, having a high-impact running back like Leonard Fournette doesn't hurt.
So why is Bortles' QB-ADP stuck at 29? For context, last year's 28th best fantasy QB was Mitch Trubisky. And he played only 12 games. How could anyone think Bortles will be worse than bad?
While most fantasy experts don't think he'll be that bad, most rank him in the bottom-third. And 98 out of 105 (93%) place him outside the top 18. It's a bizarre rebuke of a talented 26-year-old with a firm grip on the starting job, plenty of offensive weapons to target, and three consecutive statistically solid seasons under his belt. Yes, he'll face more competition this year with the rise of Jimmy Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes and the healthy returns of Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Andrew Luck. But in spite of that, Bortles will defy nearly every expectation and finish in the top 18.