Derrius Guice, knee. Marlon Mack, hamstring. George Kittle, shoulder. Matt Breida, shoulder. Deon Cain, knee. Preseason games are about depth chart positioning and staying healthy -- and occasionally, like in Andrew Luck's case, shaking off the rust. Jeremy Hill certainly showed he belongs in the Patriot-backfield-rotation conversation, while rookies Nick Chubb and Kalen Ballage didn't do themselves any favors. Chris Carson outplayed Rashaad Penny, and the Bills' QB battle --and possibly the Browns' -- got more interesting. Antonio Callaway showed why Cleveland desperately wants to believe the rookie's story about the marijuana found in his car. And teammate David Njoku put his drop problems aside to remind everyone he's a breakout candidate.
But the biggest news today will be on Guice, Mack, Kittle, Breida, and Cain. A serious injury for any of them will have clear fantasy ripple effects.
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In the past two decades we've witnessed a dramatic shift in RB usage, which has impacted the fantasy value of various tiers. Given where the NFL is as a sport, it's hard to imagine a return to those earlier days anytime soon.
In 1998, 11 RBs earned 300+ carries, 17 had 250+, and 25 had 200+. Only six backs had 50+ catches. It was a time when most teams had a true bell-cow, and upper-echelon fantasy performers were dominated more by RBs than what we see today. For example, in '98, 15 RBs were top-50 fantasy scorers, dropping to 12 in 2007 and then 11 in 2017. 11 RBs finished in the top 30 in '98, while last year it was seven.
Also, it's interesting that 50-catch RBs used to be outnumbered by 200-, 250-, and even 300-carry backs. These days it's fairly common to witness more 50-catch RBs than 300- and even 250-catch RBs. And the gradual downward trend of 200-catch RBs suggests 50-catch backs -- four of them third-down specialists last year, and six playing similarly complementary roles in 2016 -- will someday be more plentiful than those netting a mere 12-14 rushes per game.
That would further level the RB playing field beyond the RB1/2 tiers. For example, 65 fantasy points separated last year's 25th and 50th highest-scoring RBs. In 2012 it was 72 points. Zip back to 2002, and it was 100. The year-by-year trend line of middle-tier tightening reinforces my view that guys like RB4s are not worth drafting unless they have bell-cow potential. Otherwise, they're simply not producing enough per game vs. RB5s and RB6s -- players you could pick up off waivers and stream.
Finally, per the other charts below, it's fascinating to observe slight shifts in QB and RB fantasy production these past 20 seasons. Once again we see middle-tier RB tightening through the years as top 36-50 RBs are making slightly bigger impacts, closing the gap on RB2s and 3s. Meanwhile, despite a recent dip, QB production has increased across all tiers these past two decades while RB1/2/3 numbers have remained largely flat.
No one stat, and no single chart, should shape our thinking. But it also can't be ignored. Given their unreliability (higher injury risks, higher demotion risks) compared to QBs, WRs, and TEs, figuring out how to value RBs throughout a draft can mean the difference between a good team and a dominant one.
But the biggest news today will be on Guice, Mack, Kittle, Breida, and Cain. A serious injury for any of them will have clear fantasy ripple effects.
--
In the past two decades we've witnessed a dramatic shift in RB usage, which has impacted the fantasy value of various tiers. Given where the NFL is as a sport, it's hard to imagine a return to those earlier days anytime soon.
In 1998, 11 RBs earned 300+ carries, 17 had 250+, and 25 had 200+. Only six backs had 50+ catches. It was a time when most teams had a true bell-cow, and upper-echelon fantasy performers were dominated more by RBs than what we see today. For example, in '98, 15 RBs were top-50 fantasy scorers, dropping to 12 in 2007 and then 11 in 2017. 11 RBs finished in the top 30 in '98, while last year it was seven.
Also, it's interesting that 50-catch RBs used to be outnumbered by 200-, 250-, and even 300-carry backs. These days it's fairly common to witness more 50-catch RBs than 300- and even 250-catch RBs. And the gradual downward trend of 200-catch RBs suggests 50-catch backs -- four of them third-down specialists last year, and six playing similarly complementary roles in 2016 -- will someday be more plentiful than those netting a mere 12-14 rushes per game.
That would further level the RB playing field beyond the RB1/2 tiers. For example, 65 fantasy points separated last year's 25th and 50th highest-scoring RBs. In 2012 it was 72 points. Zip back to 2002, and it was 100. The year-by-year trend line of middle-tier tightening reinforces my view that guys like RB4s are not worth drafting unless they have bell-cow potential. Otherwise, they're simply not producing enough per game vs. RB5s and RB6s -- players you could pick up off waivers and stream.
Finally, per the other charts below, it's fascinating to observe slight shifts in QB and RB fantasy production these past 20 seasons. Once again we see middle-tier RB tightening through the years as top 36-50 RBs are making slightly bigger impacts, closing the gap on RB2s and 3s. Meanwhile, despite a recent dip, QB production has increased across all tiers these past two decades while RB1/2/3 numbers have remained largely flat.
No one stat, and no single chart, should shape our thinking. But it also can't be ignored. Given their unreliability (higher injury risks, higher demotion risks) compared to QBs, WRs, and TEs, figuring out how to value RBs throughout a draft can mean the difference between a good team and a dominant one.
