There are probably dozens of things we could talk about from last night's games. I want to focus briefly on two:
(1) A.J. McCarron's broken collarbone likely means Josh Allen will be Buffalo's Week 1 starter. It also means Allen is more likely than not to keep the job all year. From a human perspective, this is truly a crushing injury for a guy (McCarron) who's been waiting years to become an NFL starter. From a more callous fantasy perspective, this makes things easier for everyone in two-QB leagues and very deep leagues. The few of you stashing McCarron can now drop him without guilt; the same presumably goes for those with Nathan Peterman at the end of your bench. And if you bet on Allen, great job. Not that Allen will be a weekly QB2. But in leagues where every starter is drafted, landing Allen at his overall 252 ADP now makes him a draft steal.
(2) When it comes to my contrarian predictions, I don't kick players while they're down or prop up guys on rapidly shifting news. If Dalvin Cook gets knocked out for the year tomorrow, I'm not going to post a faux-contrarian prediction about the "undervalued" Latavius murray.
That ties in somewhat with Jonathan Stewart, who's been ranked better than teammate Wayne Gallman all preseason. Well, it's looking increasingly obvious that Stewart is a wasted pick in even the deepest leagues, while Gallman is the Giants handcuff to roster. There won't be a meaningless "Jonathan Stewart won't be a top 100 RB" prediction, despite his overrated RB-69 ADP (which assumes roughly a 300/2 line with 10 catches). But I think most people see what now seems obvious: Stewart looks done. And Gallman, who let's not forget caught 34 balls last year and was a solid prospect coming out of Clemson last year, is now one of fantasy's most undervalued handcuffs. Currently with an RB-87 ADP, he might be worthy of a contrarian prediction at some point. But let's wait a week or two to let the fantasy universe catch up.
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I've been waiting a while for Marlon Mack's stock to drop. He's barely budged the past five weeks -- from an RB-32 ADP to RB-36. Most of the fantasy universe still views him as the #1 back in Indy's RB corps, even if it means he's splitting time with other guys. 59 of 85 experts rank him in the top 40, while 81 of 85 place him in the top 50. I've waited more than a week since his hamstring injury to see whether people would start realizing Mack is a terrible draft investment. Simply put, they haven't. So it's time to issue a clear warning: Mack won't be a top-50 RB.
This is a guy who looked fairly pedestrian last year despite plenty of preseason hype. Some of that might be blamed on an Andrew Luck-less offense -- that Luck's return will open up the running game. But the biggest thing Mack has on Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines is one season of experience. All three guys have earned similar hype as potential NFL-capable backs. Why should we assume Mack is better, especially with an injury that could keep him out for most of the preseason?
And then there are veterans Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Turbin is facing a four-game suspension, but he and Michael are capable RBs who muddy this backfield even more. Can we honestly expect Mack to post 500/4 numbers with 20 receptions (comparable to last year's 50th best fantasy RB) while competing with Turbin, Michael, Wilkins, and Hines?
This prediction is all about playing the percentages. For some reason, Mack was anointed as the Colts' #1 fantasy RB back in May. Almost everyone went along with it, including me. Yet this summer Mack's done almost nothing to reinforce why he merits that much fantasy love. And here he is with an RB-36 ADP and most experts listing him as their favorite Indy RB.
A ranking is meaningless if we can't back it up. If someone out there wants to make the case for Mack, please jump in. But I'm now ready to pull the plug on his 2018 prospects, as at least one -- and likely at least two -- other Colt RBs will fare better.
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(1) A.J. McCarron's broken collarbone likely means Josh Allen will be Buffalo's Week 1 starter. It also means Allen is more likely than not to keep the job all year. From a human perspective, this is truly a crushing injury for a guy (McCarron) who's been waiting years to become an NFL starter. From a more callous fantasy perspective, this makes things easier for everyone in two-QB leagues and very deep leagues. The few of you stashing McCarron can now drop him without guilt; the same presumably goes for those with Nathan Peterman at the end of your bench. And if you bet on Allen, great job. Not that Allen will be a weekly QB2. But in leagues where every starter is drafted, landing Allen at his overall 252 ADP now makes him a draft steal.
(2) When it comes to my contrarian predictions, I don't kick players while they're down or prop up guys on rapidly shifting news. If Dalvin Cook gets knocked out for the year tomorrow, I'm not going to post a faux-contrarian prediction about the "undervalued" Latavius murray.
That ties in somewhat with Jonathan Stewart, who's been ranked better than teammate Wayne Gallman all preseason. Well, it's looking increasingly obvious that Stewart is a wasted pick in even the deepest leagues, while Gallman is the Giants handcuff to roster. There won't be a meaningless "Jonathan Stewart won't be a top 100 RB" prediction, despite his overrated RB-69 ADP (which assumes roughly a 300/2 line with 10 catches). But I think most people see what now seems obvious: Stewart looks done. And Gallman, who let's not forget caught 34 balls last year and was a solid prospect coming out of Clemson last year, is now one of fantasy's most undervalued handcuffs. Currently with an RB-87 ADP, he might be worthy of a contrarian prediction at some point. But let's wait a week or two to let the fantasy universe catch up.
--
I've been waiting a while for Marlon Mack's stock to drop. He's barely budged the past five weeks -- from an RB-32 ADP to RB-36. Most of the fantasy universe still views him as the #1 back in Indy's RB corps, even if it means he's splitting time with other guys. 59 of 85 experts rank him in the top 40, while 81 of 85 place him in the top 50. I've waited more than a week since his hamstring injury to see whether people would start realizing Mack is a terrible draft investment. Simply put, they haven't. So it's time to issue a clear warning: Mack won't be a top-50 RB.
This is a guy who looked fairly pedestrian last year despite plenty of preseason hype. Some of that might be blamed on an Andrew Luck-less offense -- that Luck's return will open up the running game. But the biggest thing Mack has on Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines is one season of experience. All three guys have earned similar hype as potential NFL-capable backs. Why should we assume Mack is better, especially with an injury that could keep him out for most of the preseason?
And then there are veterans Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Turbin is facing a four-game suspension, but he and Michael are capable RBs who muddy this backfield even more. Can we honestly expect Mack to post 500/4 numbers with 20 receptions (comparable to last year's 50th best fantasy RB) while competing with Turbin, Michael, Wilkins, and Hines?
This prediction is all about playing the percentages. For some reason, Mack was anointed as the Colts' #1 fantasy RB back in May. Almost everyone went along with it, including me. Yet this summer Mack's done almost nothing to reinforce why he merits that much fantasy love. And here he is with an RB-36 ADP and most experts listing him as their favorite Indy RB.
A ranking is meaningless if we can't back it up. If someone out there wants to make the case for Mack, please jump in. But I'm now ready to pull the plug on his 2018 prospects, as at least one -- and likely at least two -- other Colt RBs will fare better.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota