After a relatively injury-free preseason, the last few days have been a wake-up call. Since Derrius Guice and Deon Cain were declared out for the year, the Niners have dealt with a rash of injuries that forced many fantasy managers (including me) to hold our breaths. While Jerick McKinnon, handcuff Matt Breida, and George Kittle are expected to be fine for Week 1, this was a reminder that a team's fortunes can turn on a dime, as an otherwise talented young corps can transform into . . . well, signing Alfred Morris.
Antonio Brown missed Pittsburgh's first preseason game and a chunk of practices with a quad injury. The 30-year-old Brown as been the #3 fantasy WR on my draft board for much of the summer. After three straight 16-game seasons, he's missed two games in each of the last two years (including the 2016 playoff loss to Denver). While no player is invincible, Brown's prolonged absence has been a bit concerning.
Saquon Barkley suffered a "mild" leg strain yesterday, which surely must have amounted to a rough day for dynasty leaguers who opted to keep Brown and then drafted Barkley in the first round. But this shouldn't have any impact on his Week 1 performance, so be grateful he's now less likely to get hurt before the games actually count.
NFL.com's Ian Rapoport alarmed millions of managers yesterday after reporting that Alshon Jeffery might start the season on the PUP list. That would mean he'd get two games, at most, before Philly's Week 9 bye. While this isn't official team news -- it's merely a reporter breaking a potential story -- I certainly wouldn't leap at Jeffery's WR-24 ADP, and instead I'd bump up Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace a bit on the chance Jeffery misses some time. Surely we'll all be hearing more about this in the next week or two.
Isaiah Crowell missed time with a concussion. But keep in mind he hasn't missed a game since 2012 at Alabama State.
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A little less than two weeks ago I walked through some of the most notable ADP shifts from the previous week. In other words, which players' stock had dramatically risen or dropped recently? With the final phases of the preseason approaching, here are some of the most dramatic shifts since early August:
At quarterback, Baker Mayfield climbed from 28th to 24th, despite nearly every Cleveland coach assuring everyone that Tyrod Taylor is the Browns' starter -- not just the Week 1 start, but *the* starter. Still, the Mayfield train won't slow down unless he stumbles in the next preseason game, or unless Cleveland starts off 3-1 behind Taylor's dominant play. Meanwhile, Case Keenum dropped from 24th to 27th -- an overreaction to the greater buzz surrounding other QB2s and 3s. Don't sleep on Keenum. He's gone from big bargain to huge bargain this month.
At running back, Chris Carson shifted from 48th to 43rd while Rashaad Penny held steady at #21. Someone didn't get the memo. Either Carson shouldn't have moved, or Penny merits a dip. The latter took place on my draft board last week. No one should view Penny as draftable at his current ADP. Surprisingly, Mark Ingram flew from 31st to 23rd. It makes no sense. He's the same suspended RB he was two weeks ago. Derrius Guice's injury pushed Rob Kelley from 102nd to 59th, and Sajame Perine from 66th to 55th. Perine remains undervalued, while Kelley is priced about right. Also, Royce Freeman jumped from 34th to 25th; I like that shift, as I've never trusted Devontae Booker to be a serious threat to the rookie.
At wide receiver, Chris Godwin popped from 73rd to 64th, likely on news he could overtake DJax this year. Those who've been subscribing to my rankings have seen this coming for over a month. Meanwhile, Eric Decker took a big leap from 98th to 71st, but don't read too much into that: he moved because he was signed, not because he's headed toward fantasy relevance. Decker is barely a flyer in the deepest leagues. In San Francisco, Marquise Goodwin has reached 35th compared to a WR-42 ADP early this month. As readers know, I've liked him over Pierre Garcon since June.
At tight end, Eric Ebron shifted from 19th to 23rd, while Antonio Gates climbed from 41st to 33rd. Ebron is now a nice bargain, while Gates remains essentially undraftable.
At kicker, Adam Vinatieri has jumped from 21st to 13th, in all likelihood because the veteran was very underutilized last year with Jacoby Brissett under center. Andrew Luck's impending return signals a return to a higher-powered Indy offense, and therefore a return to fantasy relevance for Vinatieri. Meanwhile, Matt Bryant fell from 4th to 8th.
Antonio Brown missed Pittsburgh's first preseason game and a chunk of practices with a quad injury. The 30-year-old Brown as been the #3 fantasy WR on my draft board for much of the summer. After three straight 16-game seasons, he's missed two games in each of the last two years (including the 2016 playoff loss to Denver). While no player is invincible, Brown's prolonged absence has been a bit concerning.
Saquon Barkley suffered a "mild" leg strain yesterday, which surely must have amounted to a rough day for dynasty leaguers who opted to keep Brown and then drafted Barkley in the first round. But this shouldn't have any impact on his Week 1 performance, so be grateful he's now less likely to get hurt before the games actually count.
NFL.com's Ian Rapoport alarmed millions of managers yesterday after reporting that Alshon Jeffery might start the season on the PUP list. That would mean he'd get two games, at most, before Philly's Week 9 bye. While this isn't official team news -- it's merely a reporter breaking a potential story -- I certainly wouldn't leap at Jeffery's WR-24 ADP, and instead I'd bump up Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace a bit on the chance Jeffery misses some time. Surely we'll all be hearing more about this in the next week or two.
Isaiah Crowell missed time with a concussion. But keep in mind he hasn't missed a game since 2012 at Alabama State.
--
A little less than two weeks ago I walked through some of the most notable ADP shifts from the previous week. In other words, which players' stock had dramatically risen or dropped recently? With the final phases of the preseason approaching, here are some of the most dramatic shifts since early August:
At quarterback, Baker Mayfield climbed from 28th to 24th, despite nearly every Cleveland coach assuring everyone that Tyrod Taylor is the Browns' starter -- not just the Week 1 start, but *the* starter. Still, the Mayfield train won't slow down unless he stumbles in the next preseason game, or unless Cleveland starts off 3-1 behind Taylor's dominant play. Meanwhile, Case Keenum dropped from 24th to 27th -- an overreaction to the greater buzz surrounding other QB2s and 3s. Don't sleep on Keenum. He's gone from big bargain to huge bargain this month.
At running back, Chris Carson shifted from 48th to 43rd while Rashaad Penny held steady at #21. Someone didn't get the memo. Either Carson shouldn't have moved, or Penny merits a dip. The latter took place on my draft board last week. No one should view Penny as draftable at his current ADP. Surprisingly, Mark Ingram flew from 31st to 23rd. It makes no sense. He's the same suspended RB he was two weeks ago. Derrius Guice's injury pushed Rob Kelley from 102nd to 59th, and Sajame Perine from 66th to 55th. Perine remains undervalued, while Kelley is priced about right. Also, Royce Freeman jumped from 34th to 25th; I like that shift, as I've never trusted Devontae Booker to be a serious threat to the rookie.
At wide receiver, Chris Godwin popped from 73rd to 64th, likely on news he could overtake DJax this year. Those who've been subscribing to my rankings have seen this coming for over a month. Meanwhile, Eric Decker took a big leap from 98th to 71st, but don't read too much into that: he moved because he was signed, not because he's headed toward fantasy relevance. Decker is barely a flyer in the deepest leagues. In San Francisco, Marquise Goodwin has reached 35th compared to a WR-42 ADP early this month. As readers know, I've liked him over Pierre Garcon since June.
At tight end, Eric Ebron shifted from 19th to 23rd, while Antonio Gates climbed from 41st to 33rd. Ebron is now a nice bargain, while Gates remains essentially undraftable.
At kicker, Adam Vinatieri has jumped from 21st to 13th, in all likelihood because the veteran was very underutilized last year with Jacoby Brissett under center. Andrew Luck's impending return signals a return to a higher-powered Indy offense, and therefore a return to fantasy relevance for Vinatieri. Meanwhile, Matt Bryant fell from 4th to 8th.