Last night Redskin fans and anyone who who happened to have drafted -- or since picked up -- Rob Kelley expressed shock and dismay as Jay Gruden kept featuring Kelley in their second preseason game. With Derrius Guice out for the year, Samaje Perine spraining his ankle on his first attempt, and Byron Marshall injuring his leg, Washington's once deep backfield was starting to look very thin heading into Week 1. So why give Kelley so much run, and needlessly risk further decimating his apparently fragile RB corps?
I think the answer could be found in a late-night tweet from NBC Sports' Washington reporter JP Finlay, who wrote, "Gruden says Perine has a sprained ankle but is ok. Says Byron Marshall got an MRI and was OK too."
So it appears Washington escaped Thursday night intact, and Kelley was simply getting his final live-action looks before Week 1. This backfield remains one of fantasy's most closely watched, as three or four guys could play meaningful roles in September. My money remains on Perine out-touching everyone else.
Beyond that, Jamaal Williams and Nick Foles also got hurt, though they're both expected to be fine. And it was reported Rex Burkhead has a slight tear in his knee -- a "minor injury" according to the Patriots, but yet another reason why James White is an extraordinarily better value pick at his RB-49 ADP than Burkhead is at RB-28.
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That Patriot news is a good segue to my next contrarian prediction. Julian Edelman hasn't played since Super Bowl 51. Last summer's season-ending injury and this summer's four-game suspension ruling has put Tom Brady's long-time favorite WR target on dangerous footing. His WR-31 ADP has been largely static all summer, and assumes a return to low-end WR2 production when he re-takes the field. It's a highly ambitious projection and an unnecessary risk in the middle rounds of your draft.
Tom Brady's seemingly never-ending dominance aside, I can't understand why Edelman's getting this much love. Here's one stat that should give everyone pause: Although he was the 15th highest scoring WR in 2016, he was third in targets (159). That's essentially 10 per game. He averaged nearly 10 a game in comparably impressive 2013 and 2014 seasons. Now he's 32, coming off a 20-month hiatus, and competing for targets with Gronk, Chris Hogan, and whoever fills in for him to open the season. I think the veteran will be lucky to net eight targets per game, leaving him just shy of 100 (in 12 games), making him no better than a WR4.
Then factor in Edelman's advancing age: 32 suggests his post-prime is either nearing or already here. And factor in the 41-year-old Brady, for whom any regression will seriously impact Edelman's prospects.
Also consider Gronk was out for half of Edelman's impressive 2016 season and more than half of Edelman's impressive 2013 season. Only once -- in his age-28 2014 campaign -- has Edelman fared well while playing all season with a comparably healthy/talented receiver. He'll enter this season playing with two of them.
Over a full 2018, Edelman's realistic upside would be 80/900/3. Over 12 games that would come to 60/675/2. It's a big leap to assume he'll return to weekly fantasy relevance. 80% of experts place him inside the top 45. He'll fall short.
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I think the answer could be found in a late-night tweet from NBC Sports' Washington reporter JP Finlay, who wrote, "Gruden says Perine has a sprained ankle but is ok. Says Byron Marshall got an MRI and was OK too."
So it appears Washington escaped Thursday night intact, and Kelley was simply getting his final live-action looks before Week 1. This backfield remains one of fantasy's most closely watched, as three or four guys could play meaningful roles in September. My money remains on Perine out-touching everyone else.
Beyond that, Jamaal Williams and Nick Foles also got hurt, though they're both expected to be fine. And it was reported Rex Burkhead has a slight tear in his knee -- a "minor injury" according to the Patriots, but yet another reason why James White is an extraordinarily better value pick at his RB-49 ADP than Burkhead is at RB-28.
--
That Patriot news is a good segue to my next contrarian prediction. Julian Edelman hasn't played since Super Bowl 51. Last summer's season-ending injury and this summer's four-game suspension ruling has put Tom Brady's long-time favorite WR target on dangerous footing. His WR-31 ADP has been largely static all summer, and assumes a return to low-end WR2 production when he re-takes the field. It's a highly ambitious projection and an unnecessary risk in the middle rounds of your draft.
Tom Brady's seemingly never-ending dominance aside, I can't understand why Edelman's getting this much love. Here's one stat that should give everyone pause: Although he was the 15th highest scoring WR in 2016, he was third in targets (159). That's essentially 10 per game. He averaged nearly 10 a game in comparably impressive 2013 and 2014 seasons. Now he's 32, coming off a 20-month hiatus, and competing for targets with Gronk, Chris Hogan, and whoever fills in for him to open the season. I think the veteran will be lucky to net eight targets per game, leaving him just shy of 100 (in 12 games), making him no better than a WR4.
Then factor in Edelman's advancing age: 32 suggests his post-prime is either nearing or already here. And factor in the 41-year-old Brady, for whom any regression will seriously impact Edelman's prospects.
Also consider Gronk was out for half of Edelman's impressive 2016 season and more than half of Edelman's impressive 2013 season. Only once -- in his age-28 2014 campaign -- has Edelman fared well while playing all season with a comparably healthy/talented receiver. He'll enter this season playing with two of them.
Over a full 2018, Edelman's realistic upside would be 80/900/3. Over 12 games that would come to 60/675/2. It's a big leap to assume he'll return to weekly fantasy relevance. 80% of experts place him inside the top 45. He'll fall short.
--
SUBSCRIBE: Preaseason Top 300 Rankings
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com (Big Blue Box registration form)
JOIN: 4th Annual Survivor Pool
officepoolstop.com/JoinLeague.aspx
League ID: 20432
Password: mariota