After I draft, my biggest concern is that one (or more) of my guys will get seriously hurt during camp. Across the league, every July and August, one or more weekly fantasy starters goes down for most/all of the season, as millions of fantasy managers cry out in a shared sense of pain.
Before I draft, my biggest concern is that an excessively overvalued or undervalued player will get hurt. Why? Because excessive over- and under-valuations are a key to successful drafting. If you're confident a universal top-5 QB won't finish in the top 10, then you can feel confident an opponent will burn a fairly early pick on him. And if you're pretty sure the 30th-ranked WR is a near-lock for WR2 production, then you've got a competitive edge when drafting him a round early.
So the weekend news surrounding Sony Michel was disappointing from a fantasy perspective. I wrote a column about a week earlier warning that Michel wasn't worth his RB-23 ADP, offering four reasons why you should let an opponent waste a pick on him:
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2018/07/three-overrated-rbs-david-johnson.html
Now that competitive advantage is gone. Michel's knee injury will keep him out for the rest of the preseason and possibly some of the regular season. Michel is now undraftable in small and mid-sized leagues and realistically might not rise above #4 on New England's backfield depth chart this year. James White and Rex Burkhead get nice bumps, while Jeremy Hill enters the picture as a potential legit #3 option.
In other news, Cleveland gave up on former first rounder Corey Coleman, sending him to Buffalo for a 2020 seventh rounder. It was essentially a salary dump for a player whose injuries and modest play have turned him into a bust. The Bills hope he'll start, meaning Coleman instantly deserves more attention, even in a worse offense. Keep an eye on Zay Jones's health and whether Coleman can secure a weekly starting gig. As for the Browns, camp star Antonio Callaway enters the WR6 conversation, with room to pop if Josh Gordon remains out Week 1.
My #5 contrarian preseason prediction features the laughably underrated Austin Hooper, whose TE-26 ADP suggests a significant regression from last year's numbers. Still only 23, the former third rounder is a player on the rise. I've heard people say "Matt Ryan doesn't like to throw to tight ends" and "Hooper didn't do much last year." Such assessments are worthless for our hard-nosed purposes.
Hooper is an exceptional blocker. His 2017 catch rate (75%) was second-highest among the top 30 fantasy TEs. He's worked out privately with Ryan in each of the past two offseasons. He can easily -- to repeat, easily -- match or exceed last year's 49/526/3 line.
He's 13th on my draft board. The only expert who ranks him that high is RotoViz's Anthony Amico. Two others rank him 14th. The other 94 experts rank him worse, with 80% placing him 20th to 30th. Outrageous. And an extraordinary buying opportunity for deep-leaguers who could use a back-end TE1 with your final-round pick.
Before I draft, my biggest concern is that an excessively overvalued or undervalued player will get hurt. Why? Because excessive over- and under-valuations are a key to successful drafting. If you're confident a universal top-5 QB won't finish in the top 10, then you can feel confident an opponent will burn a fairly early pick on him. And if you're pretty sure the 30th-ranked WR is a near-lock for WR2 production, then you've got a competitive edge when drafting him a round early.
So the weekend news surrounding Sony Michel was disappointing from a fantasy perspective. I wrote a column about a week earlier warning that Michel wasn't worth his RB-23 ADP, offering four reasons why you should let an opponent waste a pick on him:
www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2018/07/three-overrated-rbs-david-johnson.html
Now that competitive advantage is gone. Michel's knee injury will keep him out for the rest of the preseason and possibly some of the regular season. Michel is now undraftable in small and mid-sized leagues and realistically might not rise above #4 on New England's backfield depth chart this year. James White and Rex Burkhead get nice bumps, while Jeremy Hill enters the picture as a potential legit #3 option.
In other news, Cleveland gave up on former first rounder Corey Coleman, sending him to Buffalo for a 2020 seventh rounder. It was essentially a salary dump for a player whose injuries and modest play have turned him into a bust. The Bills hope he'll start, meaning Coleman instantly deserves more attention, even in a worse offense. Keep an eye on Zay Jones's health and whether Coleman can secure a weekly starting gig. As for the Browns, camp star Antonio Callaway enters the WR6 conversation, with room to pop if Josh Gordon remains out Week 1.
My #5 contrarian preseason prediction features the laughably underrated Austin Hooper, whose TE-26 ADP suggests a significant regression from last year's numbers. Still only 23, the former third rounder is a player on the rise. I've heard people say "Matt Ryan doesn't like to throw to tight ends" and "Hooper didn't do much last year." Such assessments are worthless for our hard-nosed purposes.
Hooper is an exceptional blocker. His 2017 catch rate (75%) was second-highest among the top 30 fantasy TEs. He's worked out privately with Ryan in each of the past two offseasons. He can easily -- to repeat, easily -- match or exceed last year's 49/526/3 line.
He's 13th on my draft board. The only expert who ranks him that high is RotoViz's Anthony Amico. Two others rank him 14th. The other 94 experts rank him worse, with 80% placing him 20th to 30th. Outrageous. And an extraordinary buying opportunity for deep-leaguers who could use a back-end TE1 with your final-round pick.